Turbulence in the Skies: How Climate Change is Making Air Travel Rougher

SAN JOSE - In the unpredictable theater of air travel, turbulence has long been an unwelcome, albeit familiar, player. For most, it's a fleeting moment of discomfort, a jolt that prompts the tightening of seatbelts and a collective sigh of relief when it's over. Yet, recent events and scientific findings suggest that these episodes of turbulence are not only becoming more frequent but also more severe, thanks to the far-reaching impacts of climate change.

On a recent Tuesday, turbulence claimed the life of a passenger aboard Singapore Airlines flight SQ321. The flight, en route from London to Singapore, encountered severe turbulence over the Bay of Bengal, which led to an emergency landing in Bangkok. The violent shaking threw passengers who were not strapped in against the cabin ceiling, leading to numerous injuries and the tragic death of a 73-year-old British man, likely due to a heart attack. This incident, though rare in its fatal outcome, underscores a growing concern in the aviation industry.

The Science Behind Turbulence

Turbulence, characterized by sudden and violent shifts in airflow, is a common cause of in-flight injuries. According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), turbulence accounted for over a third of airline accidents between 2009 and 2018, primarily resulting in injuries rather than fatalities. Most turbulence is caused by atmospheric conditions such as storms, mountains, and jet streams. However, a particularly insidious type, clear-air turbulence, is garnering attention due to its increasing prevalence and the difficulty in predicting it.

Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, has been at the forefront of researching this phenomenon. His studies reveal a 55% increase in severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic since 1979, a trend he attributes to climate change. "Our latest projections indicate a doubling or tripling of severe turbulence in the jet streams in the coming decades, if the climate continues to change as we expect," Williams noted in a recent interview.

Climate Change: The Invisible Catalyst

The link between climate change and increased turbulence lies in the warming of our planet. As global temperatures rise, so do ocean temperatures, leading to more intense and frequent storms. These storms contribute to the distortion of jet streams—fast-moving air currents in the upper atmosphere that significantly influence weather patterns and flight conditions.

Research published in Nature Climate Change highlights how climate change is accelerating jet stream winds, making them faster and more erratic. Tiffany Shaw, a professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago, explained that this distortion is expected to result in record-breaking winds, increased clear-air turbulence, and potentially more severe weather occurrences. "Based on these results and our current understanding, we expect a noticeable impact on flight times and turbulence intensity," Shaw stated.

The Human Impact

While turbulence fatalities remain rare, the increase in turbulence-related injuries is a cause for concern. In Canada alone, the Transportation Safety Board reported 56 incidents of turbulence-related injuries since 2015, with nine resulting in serious injuries. Notably, a 2015 Air Canada flight from China saw 21 passengers injured due to turbulence, many of whom were not wearing seatbelts at the time.

In the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recorded 163 serious turbulence injuries between 2009 and 2022. The majority of these injuries involved flight crew members, who, unlike passengers, often do not have the safety benefit of seatbelts while performing their duties. The last recorded turbulence-related death in the U.S. was in 2009, illustrating the rarity of such fatal incidents despite the increasing frequency of turbulence encounters.

Navigating a Bumpier Future

As climate change continues to alter atmospheric conditions, the aviation industry faces new challenges in ensuring passenger safety. Pilots and air traffic control personnel already use advanced weather prediction tools to avoid turbulence, but clear-air turbulence remains particularly elusive as it doesn't appear on radar.

Boeing 777 pilot Shem Malmquist, a visiting instructor at the Florida Institute of Technology, emphasized the need for enhanced pilot training and better predictive technologies to cope with the evolving nature of turbulence. "With climate change, we get warmer oceans, which increases the probability for storms to manifest in ways that pilots are not generally trained to detect," he said. Malmquist's observations highlight a critical area for improvement in aviation safety protocols.

The recent tragedy on Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 serves as a stark reminder of the real and growing impact of climate change on air travel. While fatalities from turbulence are rare, the increasing frequency and severity of these incidents cannot be ignored. As our planet continues to warm, the skies will likely become rougher, necessitating advancements in both technology and training to keep passengers safe. In this evolving landscape, the collaboration between scientists, aviation experts, and policymakers will be crucial in navigating the challenges ahead.