Tum Rahe na Tum , Hum Rahe na Hum
Very few , who may be around 24 years from today ( in 2047 ) , would remember the following news report :
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Per Capita Income To Go Up 7 Times By 2047, Says SBI; Real Rise Will Be...??NDTV??/?16 Aug 2023
Extract :
India's per capita income is projected to grow over seven times by 2047, when the country will be celebrating its 100th Independence Day, an SBI Research report has said.
Released on the 77th Independence Day yesterday, the report - 'The Ascent of the new Middle Class in circular migration' - predicts that the per capita income will go up from the current???2 lakh to???14.9 lakh rupees.
But there is a catch.?
The SBI Research report projects a rise in the nominal income, and doesn't account for the inflation from 2023 to 2047. The sum of???14.9 lakh won't have the same value 24 years later as it does today.?
A calculation shows that the increase in per capita income, accounting for inflation, will be just two times. Assuming an annual inflation rate of 5%, which is the average of the last 10 years' inflation rates, the real value of today's???14.9 lakh will be around???4 lakh in 2047.?
India's per capita income currently is among the lowest in the lower middle income countries, even less than that of countries like Bangladesh.
The SBI report also makes several projections on the rise in India's workforce and taxpayers. It states that the number of Indians who file taxes will go up nearly seven times, from 7 crore in FY23 to 48.2 crore in FY47.?
"'Middle Income Economy cohort is going forward as the tax filer base, helped by ongoing reforms and confidence-building measures coupled with a galvanizing economy firing on all cylinders promises to bring to the net ~482 million IT filers in FY47, The formalisation drive of nearly 70 million MSMEs promises to broad base the cohort suitably," the report states.?
It adds that 13.6% of income tax filers left the lowest income strata from 2012-23, and 25% are likely to leave by 2047. The report says around 17.5% of filers are expected to move up to the???5 lakh-Rs 10 lakh income group, 5% to the???10 lakh-Rs 20 lakh group and 3% to the???20 lakh-Rs 50 lakh income group.?
While overall per capita income will grow to 14.9 lakhs, the annual weighted mean income (calculated by giving different weights to some of the individual values) of income tax filers will go up by less than 4 times - from 13 lakh rupees in FY23 to 49.7 lakh rupees in FY47 - says the SBI Research report.?
Analysing data of income tax returns, the report says that the percentage of income tax filers in the total taxable workforce is projected to grow by 3.8 times. In 2023, only 22.4% of the total workforce with a taxable income filed income tax returns. In 2047, this is projected to go up to 85.3%.?
According to the report, the number of people with a taxable income is also projected to grow by 80% by 2047. In FY23, 31.3 crore people (59% of the total workforce) have a taxable income and this number is projected to grow to 56.5 crore (78% of the projected workforce in 2047).?
The number of people paying income tax is projected to increase not just because of a rise in income and tax compliance, but also due to a rise in the country's workforce. The report says that India's workforce is projected to grow by 37%. In FY23, India's workforce has 53 crore people (38% of population), and this is projected to grow to 72.5 crore (45% of the population in 2047)?
My?Take?:
Extract :
Readers are requested to interpret?this?VISION?DOCUMENT??in terms of my following
note , dated?04 May 2008 :
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Horoscope?& Other ( Equally Fictitious )?Stories
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Most People live on, on eternal hope of a better tomorrow- even those whose “ past / present ” has been quite good.
?So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.
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And that makes everyone anxious to “know” what future holds for them.
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This human tendency/ weakness is the “ Fundamental ” on which the business of astrologers & futurologists thrives.
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And what technique do these forecasters employ to predict people’s future ?
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They rely on?“ Theory of Probability. ”
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They know that “events” recur with regularity – except that some events occur with greater regularity than some others.
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Some events have a greater probability of occurrence than some others.
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No one may have taken the trouble to accurately compute the “ frequency of occurrence ( probability) ” of each type of event, in advance.
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But every event is likely to occur in near future or distant future ( if probability is low).
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E.g.
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For certain events you can “ predict ” their occurrence TOMORROW with a probability of?0.99, such as
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·?????????A dacoit / murder in the city
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·?????????A bus-accident
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·?????????A boat capsizing etc.
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Whereas, probability of a Political leader getting assassinated?TOMORROW?will be a very low,?0.001?,
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But probability of one such assassination taking place?within next 10 years, goes up to?0.9.
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So, there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;
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·?????????Type?/ Nature of event
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·?????????Time period within which it will happen
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·?????????To whom it will happen / affect.
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Now examine :
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???TYPE / NATURE OF EVENT :-
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Practically, these can run into thousands.
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领英推荐
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???TIME-PERIOD / PERIODICITY / FREQUENCY :-
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An event can happen tomorrow or it can happen after one month or after 10 years or a century.
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???PERSON AFFECTED :-
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There are 6 billion humans on this earth.
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Now, if you multiply these 3 dimensions, you have literally TRILLIONS &
?TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “ Probability ” attached to each !
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This is what , makes “?predicting of future?” so easy !
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·?????????Something or Else ( event)
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is likely to happen to,
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·?????????Someone or Else ( Person)
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At
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·?????????Sometime or other ( Time)
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As long as you make your?PREDICTION?sufficiently VAGUE / GENERAL, in respect of
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???An Individual
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???A given time-period
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???Precise nature ( of what will happen),
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You are safe?!
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You just cannot be faulted !
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BECAUSE, WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO HAPPEN , SOMETIME OR OTHER TO SOMEONE OR OTHER !
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Now if something that is vaguely resembling what was predicted, does actually happen to even 5 % of the people who “ read” your prediction, their confidence / faith in your ability to predict future sky-rockets !
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They start believing that you have some God-given, magical powers to predict future ( did it not come true for them ? )
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Then these 5 % spread the word ( word-of-month) about your magical powers.
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And the remaining 95% for whom, the “ Prediction” did not come true,
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???Either forget that they ever read the prediction?OR
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???Believe that it was not “ meant” for them ,?OR
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???Hope that your tomorrow’s prediction (about them ) will come true ( the flame of eternal hope, keeps burning in their hearts – the hope for a better tomorrow ).
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But these 95 % never go out and tell anybody that things did not happen as predicted !
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They don’t want to look silly !
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They don’t want to appear to be superstitious persons, believing in unscientific, irrational predictions !
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So only the good-word spreads.?
Only the “positive” stories spread.
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So each such story, brings in more & more person to look-up morning newspaper to?see, what future holds for them.
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Forgotten within 5 minutes but remembered if something ( vaguely) similar did happen by the end of the day.
With regards,
Hemen Parekh
www.hemenparekh.ai?/?17 Aug 2023
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