A. Tsipras: A Master of Negotiation or just Incompetent?
I’ve been prompted to write this article as I am torn with this dilemma, looking at it from the viewpoint of the negotiation consultant.
Before I start with my thoughts on the subject, let me structure your expectations. If you are looking for a political statement or opinion on the current situation in Greece, you need not read further. There is no such thing in the lines that follow. I’ve been prompted to write this article as I am torn with this dilemma, looking at it from the viewpoint of the negotiation consultant. So here is my dilemma:
Scenario #1:
Tsipras (and a handful of his inner circle advisors) had a hidden agenda all along after the elections of January 25th. This contained a vision to transform Greece into a beacon of “Socialist transformation” of some sort. Step number one, would be to extract the country out of the Eurozone. Over the last 5 months, he put all the stakeholders at sleep by reassuring everybody that a conclusion of the deal was imminent.
To this effect, he used every tool available to a negotiator’s toolbox. Circular arguments, creation of adversarial environment, unrealistic proposals etc. All these (and many others) were employed to avoid the acceleration of the process and time wise, to drive it to its very limit and beyond.
Towards the end, keeping the banks closed, building the “profiles” of internal and external enemies, polarizing the electorate through a vague referendum and adopting war like wording in his speeches, created the perfect ground for him to claim that Greece is no longer welcome in the Eurozone, hence it is “forced” to leave and adopt the drachma (or whatever else the local currency will be called).
Is this scenario far fetched? Probably. Has it happened before? Numerous times, whenever a minority wanted to impose something over a majority. (In this case, I am referring to the documented majority of Greeks that would like to stay in the Euro vs the minority who are against it.) Take a look at any totalitarian regime’s history and you will stumble on similar examples sooner rather than later.
From a negotiator’s angle, his conduct has been one of the most masterful plans and executions we will all witness during our lifetimes, in the sense that he co ordinated timing, negotiating process management and alignment of actions with objectives in a perfect manner.
Scenario #2:
Scenario #1 is garbage and Tsipras only wanted to improve a potential deal, as his aim was to stay in the Eurozone. If this is the case (quite probable), I am flabbergasted with the frequency, severity and consistency of negotiating mistakes committed over the last five and a half months. One can write a book (actually I am doing this these days) about the alienation of potential and useful allies, the complete lack of structured preparation, the inability to seize the initiative and shift the power balance, the inconsistency of signals sent and so many others.
One may claim that the majority of the above mentioned and many other mistakes was committed by Varoufakis (need I explain who he is/was?) and not Tsipras himself. Non-the less, Tsipras assumed responsibility of the whole process from early on and ignorance on issues of such grave importance is hardly an excuse.
Taking the negotiator’s angle again, if Scenario #2 proves to be the case, the conduct of the Greek government over the last five and a half months will be taught for years, as an example illustrating the astronomical cost that negotiating incompetency may bear. To paraphrase Winston Churchill: “Never in history so few have made mistakes costing to so many”.
Some of you may wonder which of the two scenarios I believe is closer to reality at this point. Well… my political opinion doesn’t really matter. Suffice to say that my heart believes one, whilst my mind tends to believe the other…
Not withstanding the above, we will soon know. If the relationship with Europe and the Eurozone is ruptured this Sunday, it will be Scenario #1. If an agreement is reached this weekend, gets signed and finds its way to swift implementation it will be Scenario #2.
Which one do you think is closer to reality?
Director at 2Pi Consulting
9 年I suspect scenario #2 is closer to the truth. Tsipras withdrew from the negotiation, hoping that an internal referendum with a No vote would strengthen his hand within the EU. In fact, the outcome of the referendum has done nothing of the sort. If anything his power is reduced, and he's now having to accept a deal that's even worse than it was originally. In any negotiation you need to evaluate the power you have, and decide your strategy accordingly. As the weakest party, Greece should have taken a far more collaborative approach rather than play hard ball, and sought to form alliances - which he's finally doing, with France. Better late than never.
CUSTOMER GROUP KAM S&M C.G GREECE/EAST MED REGION C&E REPORTING TO THE CD at Essity
9 年Well documented.You will also have it as case study in your next lectures well done.
Chief Marketing Officer & Customer Experience Director @ Φυσικ? Α?ριο Ελληνικ? Εταιρε?α Εν?ργεια?
9 年Excellent article !! If only they employed people like you in the negos Yiannis....
Head of Retail | Negotiation Skills |Commercial Mindset
9 年One hopes that history will tell it "as it was" to provide insight for future generations. Right now we can only hold our collective breath. Thanks Yannis for your insight.