Try Before You Buy: The Next "Buy Now, Pay Later"?

By Jason Bornstein, Principal

Square's?acquisition of Afterpay?for $29B this week has put a spotlight on “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL). At Forerunner, we’re always watching shifts in consumer expectations, watching for signs an offering will break through from “nice-to-have” to “table stakes.” For brands, BNPL is now table stakes.

While the credit system has long underpinned our economy, the ability to pay in installments over time has meaningfully shifted consumer purchasing behavior for large and small ticket items—56% of consumers have used a BNPL service, up from 38% a year ago. The magnitude of the shift is great enough to support the global emergence of three $15B+ companies in Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna, and has also spurred traditional lenders like Chase, American Express, and Citi to offer the BNPL capability on credit-card purchases. If that’s not enough proof,?Apple is teaming with Affirm?to offer the service in Canada while?reportedly working?on a challenger of its own.

The cultural influence of BNPL has us at Forerunner thinking about the next checkout offering that will prompt a significant shift in consumer purchasing behavior. While e-commerce has defined and accelerated the modern shopping experience, stores still possess one clear advantage: the ability for customers to “try before you buy.” Many continue to?value this experience today. Though consumers spent $900B more online?during 2020 than they did the year prior—and some of that pandemic spend is forecasted to remain digital—in-person shopping still?drove?80% of retail spend.?

One of Forerunner's earliest investments speaks to how a “try before you buy” option can elevate the shopping experience:?Warby Parker. A pioneering digital eyewear and contacts brand, Warby had to find a solution for the consumer’s desire to test multiple frames before having one custom pair of glasses created. Before the brand opened stores, or technology could power a compelling digital try-on experience, the company launched an "at-home try-on" program allowing consumers to sample five frames before buying one, removing a meaningful point of friction in the conversion funnel. It worked; the brand has become a household name and a breakout DTC success.

Starting and operating a program at this scale required human, technological and inventory resources that would be challenging for emerging brands to manage on their own in today's more dynamic market. But what if the “try before you buy” program—or?TBYB—that Warby launched could be productized and made possible for more companies? Imagine the power of trying on a pair of jeans or swimsuit in-store, but digitized: A fitting room or test experience within the consumer’s own home would be game-changing. Much like the convenience of BNPL, TBYB could fundamentally change e-commerce unit economics by increasing conversion rates, decreasing return rates, and creating a channel for liable inventory that may not have otherwise been sold.

There are a few approaches to TBYB in the market today that we have our eye on:?Try Now?and?Black Cart?are providing software for brands to run the program, while?Nok?is providing a full-service vertical offering including the software, fulfillment and logistics. Like BNPL, we believe this is not a winner-takes-all market. There will be offerings with different approaches, across categories and geographies, that elevate the online?consumer experience.

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