Truth and promises: Our Day 1 mission

This week:?Is the U.S. blurring lines of democracy, oligarchy? … A deep dive into Donald Trump’s birthright citizenship executive orders … Assessing Joe Biden’s statement on the Equal Rights Amendment … Has disaster relief ever come with conditions?

Tracking Trump’s most significant comments and promises, from Day 1

Our journalists had a plan for Inauguration Day: provide live fact-checks of President Donald Trump’s inaugural address on our live blog, then analyze his executive orders in the afternoon.

Then, one Trump speech in the Capitol Rotunda turned into a second Trump speech in Emancipation Hall. Trump debriefed an overflow crowd with looser (and less accurate) campaign-era talking points about inflation, immigration and the Jan. 6, 2021, attack.

Then, two speeches became three, as Trump returned to Washington’s Capital One Arena for an indoor parade, extended remarks and an executive order signathon capped by flying Sharpies.

He wasn’t finished. Before hitting the inaugural balls, Trump riffed with reporters in the Oval Office as an aide handed him more orders. One proclamation pardoned 1,500 Capitol riot defendants, some convicted and serving prison sentences. He commuted the sentences of 14 people, including Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the Oath Keepers militia group that used military tactics to invade the Capitol.

We kept the live blog flowing past 9 p.m. and posted updates on his extension for TikTok and the all-out Jan. 6 pardons and commutations.

Our final rundown from Trump’s Monday speeches?examined about 10 claims that stood out, including:

• Trump repeated his goal of retaking control of the Panama Canal, saying that “above all, China is operating the Panama Canal." The Republic of Panama has owned and administered the Panama Canal since Dec. 31, 1999. A Hong Kong-based subsidiary renewed a lease to manage the entry and exit ways of the canal until 2047; China does not have authority over the canal’s operations.?
• Trump bolstered his case with an inflated number of Americans who died during the Panama Canal’s construction. He said the U.S. “lost 38,000 lives.” We found no record higher than 5,855 American canal workers who died from accidents and disease.
• As he talked about “record inflation,” which reached a 40-year high in June 2022, he said several times that apples had doubled in cost. Apple prices today are almost exactly the same as they were at the beginning and the end of former President Joe Biden’s tenure, producer price index data shows. At their February 2023 peak, apple prices were about 1.4 times higher than when Biden took office.

Read the other claims we covered here.?

Researching questionable claims is one piece of our team’s plan for covering the Trump administration. The other is also important: tracking the status of the agenda he promised on the campaign.

We launched the MAGA-Meter to track 75 of Trump’s second-term promises. Over the next four years, we will periodically evaluate the new administration’s progress on Trump’s 2024 campaign promises, just as we did with Barack Obama, Trump during his first term, and Joe Biden. (Many thanks to Truth Squad supporters who responded to this week’s call to support this work through donations.)

As of this writing, we have published 14 MAGA-Meter promise updates. Our updates answer questions and offer context: Does his attempt to end birthright citizenship mean it’s over? (No, a court battle is next.) Are we really out of the Paris agreement on climate change? (Formally, it takes a year, but yes.) Are transgender people now banned from the military again? (Trump has not issued a new ban, but his reversal of Biden’s action is a starting point.)

We know some people don’t want a president to keep his promises because they disagree with those promises. Some readers tell us it isn’t fair to call the promises broken when efforts to keep them collapse for reasons beyond the president’s control.?

We aren’t here to offer value judgments. Our mission is to keep you informed about what’s going on with digestible accountability journalism.

Birthright citizenship?deep dive

• Moving a promise, starting a battle. President Donald Trump’s first-day executive order flurry included one declaring that future children of people in the country illegally won’t receive automatic U.S. citizenship, commonly called birthright citizenship.?As forecast, the new order drew immediate legal challenges. Twenty-two states sued to stop it, saying the order breaches the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, which says that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside.” Trump's order moves his intent forward but can’t change constitutional language on its own. For now, we rate this promise In the Works.
• U.S. isn’t alone on this right. As he signed executive orders in the Oval Office, Trump said, “We are the only country in the world that does this with the birthright (citizenship)..” This is False. There are about three dozen countries that have unrestricted birthright citizenship, also known as "jus soli," or "right of the soil." The U.S. is joined by neighbors Canada and Mexico, along with nearly every country in Central and South America. Some European nations have modified their citizenship requirements over the years. France jettisoned its birthright citizenship law in 1993; Ireland ditched its law in 2005.?
• Second lady not affected. Social media users claimed Trump’s birthright citizenship executive order risks second lady Usha Vance’s citizenship status. "BREAKING - Vice President JD Vance’s wife will have her citizenship revoked … Neither of her parents were US citizens at the time of her birth,” a Threads post said. But this misconstrues the scope of Trump’s order. Usha Vance’s parents immigrated from India to the U.S. in the late 1970s; we don’t know what their immigration statuses were when Usha was born in 1986. But Trump’s executive order — should it take effect — doesn’t apply retroactively; it applies to future children born in the U.S. to parents in the country illegally. We rate this claim?False.

President Trump's supporters told us what they consider to be his most important promises. (YouTube)

Republican leaders want to put conditions on California wildfire aid. Is there precedent for that?

Many congressional Republicans and conservative pundits have mused about possibly forcing California leaders to change state policies to receive federal disaster money. The state is still grappling with deadly wildfires that have killed at least 28 people and destroyed nearly 15,800 structures.?

On Jan. 19’s "Meet the Press" on NBC, host Kristen Welker referred to congressional discussions about tying the disaster aid to a debt ceiling increase, and asked her guest, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., whether he would commit to providing aid with "no strings attached."

Johnson said no, and that there might be conditions beyond a debt ceiling increase.?

"We have a serious problem in California," Johnson said. "Listen, there are natural disasters. I’m from Louisiana. We’re prone to that. We understand how these things work. But then there’s also human error. And when the state and local officials make foolish policy decisions that make the disaster exponentially worse, we need to factor that in."

Johnson cited several examples, saying:??

• The state cut $100 million from forestry management. (PolitiFact put that in context.)?
• The Los Angeles Fire Department cut almost $18 million from its budget. (We wrote about what to know about the city’s fire department budget.)?
• The fire department put money into "other crazy priorities." (PolitiFact wrote about what to know about the department’s diversity, equity and inclusion efforts.)
• A reservoir outside Pacific Palisades was left empty. (We have written about California reservoirs here and here.)?

Other congressional Republicans have increasingly called for tying any California federal disaster aid to changes in state fire management policies, an idea Democrats reject. Trump has blamed Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, repeatedly for the recent wildfires and at a September California campaign stop threatened to withhold money "to put out his fires" if Newsom didn’t change state water policy.?

Newsom, in a Jan. 16 letter to Johnson and other congressional leaders he shared on X, said disaster aid should come with no strings attached.

It’s unclear exactly what changes Republicans are seeking in California, but experts said congressionally authorized disaster funding traditionally didn’t require policy changes first. Congress typically has sought reforms after providing aid, they said.

Peter Muller, a senior officer with Pew Charitable Trust’s managing fiscal risks project, said all federal disaster aid comes with some degree of conditions.

"Typically those conditions are part of a well-laid out program" with rules spelled out in advance, he said.

Keep reading the story.

— Jeff Cercone

Is the US becoming an oligarchy, as former President Biden said?

When President Donald Trump took his second-term oath of office, tech titans Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai and Jeff Bezos had front-row seats — literally.

Before Trump’s speech, the Silicon Valley billionaires stood in front of many of Trump’s Cabinet picks, turning around to mingle with some of the incoming secretaries who will directly influence their businesses. Five days earlier, then-President Joe Biden warned Americans that a powerful "oligarchy" was on the country’s doorstep, a "dangerous concentration of power in the hands of very few ultrawealthy people."?

"Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power, and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms, and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead," Biden said in his Jan. 15 farewell address.

Oligarchy, originally defined by the Greek philosopher Aristotle as the "rule of the few," is a form of government in which power rests within a small group of people, usually people of extreme wealth.?

Wealthier people have always had a louder voice in American government, but Trump’s new allies and incoming administration members represent the starkest consolidation of wealth in U.S. politics in recent memory.

The total net worth of the billionaires involved in the incoming administration comes out to more than $382 billion — more than the gross domestic product of 172 countries — U.S. News & World Report reported. The equivalent for Biden’s Cabinet was about $118 million.

Open Secrets reported that there were five people (Musk being the top donor) who spent nine figures, or more than $100 million, during the 2024 election cycle and another 35 who spent eight-figure sums.

"The superwealthy played a major role in funding the election and will play a major role in the government,” said Richard Briffault, the Joseph P. Chamberlain Professor of Legislation at Columbia Law School.

When people hear the word "oligarchy," they may think of Russia. The country has almost become synonymous with the term since a handful of ultrarich Russians started pulling the nation’s governmental and media infrastructure strings decades ago. But the U.S.’ political makeup doesn’t have to look like Russia’s to blur the lines between a democracy and oligarchy, experts said.

Here’s the story.

— Samantha Putterman

Los Angeles-area wildfires and climate change: What is the relationship?

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, said "bad policy and incompetence" are to blame in the Los Angeles wildfires.?

"So we are abundantly clear it has nothing to do with climate change or Donald Trump," Trump Jr. wrote in a Jan. 14 Instagram post, which included a clip from the business and tech podcast "All-In."

Climate scientists disagreed with Trump Jr. Numerous studies have linked human-caused climate change to the western U.S.’ worsening wildfires.

In a Jan. 13 analysis, scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles attributed about 25% of the brush dryness around Los Angeles to human-caused climate change. Increased heat over the summer and fall dried out the brush that fueled the fire, the report said.

The fires would likely have been destructive even without climate change’s influence, the report said, but would have been "somewhat smaller and less intense."?

Average temperatures in California — and around the globe — have increased steadily since 1900, an effect linked to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.?

"While dry weather is not unprecedented in the US West, 2024 was exceptionally dry in Southern California and through model experiments and statistical analysis, it’s demonstrable that part of that dryness can be attributed to climate change," University of California, Davis climate modeling professor Paul Ullrich said in an email.

Here’s the story.

— Caleb McCullough

Wait, is the Equal Rights Amendment in the Constitution?

Before leaving office, former President Joe Biden said 38 states had ratified the Equal Rights Amendment, an anti-sex-discrimination law Congress passed in 1972 — enough to make it the U.S. Constitution’s 28th Amendment.

Biden said he believes the amendment is in effect after Virginia became the 38th state to ratify it in 2020. Biden said he agreed with opinions by the American Bar Association and "leading legal constitutional scholars that the Equal Rights Amendment has become part of our Constitution."?

But the deadline for states to ratify the amendment passed nearly four decades before Virginia ratified it. Biden’s claim rests on legal interpretations that a ratification deadline Congress imposed when proposing the amendment is unconstitutional. The Equal Rights Amendment’s proponents have pushed for its recognition on these grounds, but other legal scholars consider the argument flawed.

No court in the country has recognized the amendment’s legitimacy, and the national archivist hasn't published it, despite efforts from activist groups to have the amendment recognized.

When Congress passed the Equal Rights Amendment, the resolution set a seven-year time limit for three-fourths of the states to ratify the amendment and make it part of the Constitution. In 1979, Congress voted to extend the deadline by three years, to 1982.?

Not enough states ratified the amendment by 1982, but, in the intervening years, more states ratified the amendment despite the time limit on the original proposal. The debate over the amendment centers on the ratification deadline’s validity and the states’ withdrawals.?

Biden’s assessment is largely symbolic. His own Office of Legal Counsel in 2022 mostly supported an opinion from President Donald Trump’s first administration that said the amendment died when the 1982 deadline passed without the necessary support from three-fourths of the states.?

We rate Biden’s premature claim False.

— Caleb McCullough

Quick links to more fact-checks & reports

• What does Trump want to do about TikTok? Here’s what he floated in a 75-day extension.
• Trump didn’t put his hand on the Bible during his oath of office. He’s still the president.
• Viral rumor falsely claims Trump changed tax law to benefit parent paying child support.?
• Trump didn’t admit to rigging the election during his preinauguration rally. We looked closely at his words.
• Are North Carolina’s Hurricane Helene victims still required to pay property taxes? Yes, and here’s why.

Do you smell smoke??

Here's your Pants on Fire fact-check of the week:? Ay, Caramba! No, “The Simpsons” didn’t predict the Los Angeles wildfires.

See what else we've rated Pants on Fire this week.?

Have questions or ideas for our coverage? Send me an email at [email protected].

Thanks for reading! And thanks to Copy Chief Matthew Crowley for helping me put this newsletter together.

Katie Sanders

PolitiFact Editor-in-Chief