The Truth About Economic Growth Between 2025 -2030

“Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things you only hoped for.”― Epicurus

This week in The Business Brief...

1. The Market keeps growing, but it's all about AI. And it should be!
2. Success requires more than magic and luck; you must learn to create your own luck.
3. The Truth about economic growth between 2025 to 2030...it may be shaky.
4. Please spare me the election rhetoric...they may axe the tax, but we will still be paying the same or more.
5. My Thanksgiving message - I Am Canadian First

The Markets

The predictions on interest rates have increased towards more cuts. But as central banks try to get ahead of any economic declines we have to wonder will they get there fast enough to offset downward consumer behavior. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market push the S&P 500 to 6,000 or higher by year end.

However keep in mind the benefits of investors are not reflected in the every day lives of consumers and it seems to be the same behavior globally.

Personal Log: Success takes more than magic and luck

I have always debated with a friend about success. Does it require luck and magic or hard work? Some people believe that it requires a lot of luck. I disagree. It requires a lot of work to create our own luck or opportunities. And I mean ours because the truth is that our actions or inactions create the outcomes we experience in life.

The most successful people are very disciplined in identifying what they want, creating a plan, determining what resources they need to achieve their objective, and then engaging with the right people or organizations that will find mutual benefits. That's how you create an environment of actions that work and might look like luck or magic to others. What successful people do is knock on doors to create opportunities. If you want to call that luck, by all means do. Where I come from, it's called hard work.

If you want to be successful at work or in pursuing your business or artistic dreams, have faith in yourself and whatever higher authority you believe in. Start with understanding your potential and/or purpose in life. What gets you up in the morning to create opportunities? My advice is to find it, live it, and pursue it. Along the way, by all means, continue to improve your skills and knowledge. Opportunities run out when we are no longer aligned with the changing world.

Economy: The Truth About Our Economic Growth Between 2025 -2030

Can we find stable growth in our economy? A few things to keep in mind. Please stick with me as I weave all of these together.

First, we are all aware of a significant technological shift that will eventually put pressure on corporate and national productivity, and yes, it will be because of AI.

Second, consumers and retailers are on a rollercoaster ride with the housing industry.

Third, consumers will be playing catch up for years with inflation's impact on the cost of living. For wages to catch up, you would need a severe recession.

Fourth, home building and ownership create a lot of economic growth and ancillary jobs, from infrastructure to retailing, if housing is affordable. Many believe that affordability is related to supply. To fix that, builders would all have to construct more than the market could bear, pushing prices down. The possibility of that would be zero. Most global economies fall short of housing affordability, and it has left many outside of the precious prize of home ownership. And I am not convinced that any single government can change the course of the current global situation. Most people who want a home either don't make enough, haven't saved enough, or have a credit score that doesn't qualify them. We would need a housing correction the likes of 2007; that doesn't seem to be in the cards either.

The cost of affordability is on a collision course with consumer spending, and retailers are on the receiving end. Why? If the public is serious about owning a home, you would need a significant shift in consumer savings, say 10% more of their disposable income, impacting many retailers and industries. Things, like replacing furniture, buying cars, taking vacations, home renovations, and treating ourselves for our hard work, would all take a hit. And yet, this is where the market is heading.

So, how does all this relate to technology and productivity? Well, here is the other caveat to expect: AI will reshape organizations as technology and innovations have for the last 140 years through each industrial revolution. AI is revolutionary, and we have entered the fifth industrial revolution. Consumer behaviors will change as their adoption of AI proliferates. We are already seeing new businesses pop up as SaaS/AI startups. How will this impact consumers? There will be plenty of new jobs and opportunities for entrepreneurship, and the latter is already taking shape.

Retailers will need to rush to utilize AI before it becomes impossible to compete. I agree physical stores still matter. But consumers are going to be shaping relationships with Personal AI Assistants soon to become the next consumer wave. Retailers need to conduct their diligence when it comes to who offers them AI/Software as a Service to do....everything from contacting customers to cruching their data.

One hundred years ago, there was a similar moment of economic growth. Consumer appliances, and therefore manufacturing, helped us recover from a war and another pandemic. However, we must be very careful because a lot of speculation and an economic depression followed all of that growth. I just wanted to remind you that Mark Twain said history does not repeat itself, but it can rhyme.

Politics: Spare me the election rhetoric

All I hear is "Axe The Tax." I call BS on this future Canadian election promise. I don't believe we will see any tax relief. Recently, I read that 40% of the Canadian population gets a rebate from the Carbon Tax. They are the lowest income earners. Guess what happens if this tax promise comes through? Every quarter, there will be less spending in the retail sector by that 40% of consumers, which gets between about $280 to $450 per quarter for a family of four or half that for singles. For the record, I don't like the carbon tax, but I have yet to hear of any other solutions to protect the environment. Secondly, it turns out that the government bureaucrats (Parliamentary Budget Officer) who said this tax hurts Canadians, this week was back peddling. CTV Report It turns out it was just a small error "which inadvertently included the industrial carbon pricing system." That's not a small error!

I believe that a new government will cut carbon tax at the gas pumps, but they need their tax revenue. So, where will they get the money? Polluters will be taxed more and guess what they will do? Push it back to consumers to pay. I don't see tax relief, I see tax reshuffling. Provincial governments will grab the opportunity to get more at the pumps. I do not believe any of them!

Happy Thanksgiving - I Am Canadian First

This week, we've all heard about behaviors that I deem unbecoming of Canadians, especially when someone uttered "Death to Canada." That's not what being Canadian is about. It is about being grateful for what we have, where we are, and how we build our nation. Canadians will not be coerced. We value democracy over any other kind of rule.

We should all be grateful to be a Canadian.

Certainly, there are a lot of conflicts and differences in the world, and I have always believed it's best to get along and move past conflicts elsewhere. We are Canadian first, and I will not line up with others to attack fellow Canadians; it is so unbecoming of the culture I was raised in. I was born in Montreal, and during my youth, I lived in Savanah, Georgia, for two years and spent most of my life living in Ontario and raising a family. However, my career took me to the US, where I also worked, and China, where I lived building a company. I have spent lots of time in Europe and Australia. And have traveled to other places that are far off. Everywhere I went, being Canadian meant we were open-minded and respectful. We were not seen as militants.

I am proud to be a Canadian. I was born to immigrant parents in a strict Greek Orthodox religion. My father taught me that Greece was a part of his heritage, but from each day forward, he was to be Canadian; it was his future. That taught me not to wear biases on my sleeves; my career wouldn't have been what it is. I will always be Canadian first, and no matter what goes on in the world, I will try to understand the issues, but I will not take sides to condemn or attack any of my neighbors for their beliefs or values. That's just not what intelligent Canadians do.

If you were to meet me, you would know what I think of the current state of the business world, my concerns about the economy, and my political errors. But you will never hear me attack another Canadian for who they are.

Happy Thanksgiving! Be at peace, be Canadian first, and be grateful you live here.

Thank you for reading this week's issue of The Business Brief

I don't write to change your mind, I only write to make you think.

I was asked why this book? I have always been someone who thinks and plans well ahead. This is a very important time in our history of business, technology, innovation and humanity. Be ready for it and don't miss the opportunity. Scheduled for later this fall.