Truth bias

I have enjoyed a fine career in the fascinating?‘petri dish’ of manufacturing beverages… where a poor idea worked on by the right people is salvageable, yet a good idea worked on by the wrong people often is not. Ours is a relatively ordered world of effort with less confusion that one finds everywhere else…like how all Google results are juxtaposed: the Eagle Scout award and the arrest for urinating in public. But coming to terms quickly has sometimes challenged me at work. ?Lately I have been trying to reduce the time that it takes my brain to go from ‘that can’t be true’ to ‘I must face the world as it is’ (transitioning because our brains both shape us and are shaped by us). ?I think categorizing helps me, such as:

All of this is true (examples)

1.Analyzing data has always been beautiful for me — the challenge of using numbers to tell a story and convey an idea — and I look forward to data visualization work.

2. We fool ourselves and probably emphasize the successful arcs of our careers even though the failure arcs are more valuable to recognize… a paradox of expertise.

?3. My reply to an Interviewer (before the real answer) asking me to explain the rationale for my compensation expectation: “I want enough money to realize it will not make me happy.”

4. Five key dimensions/metrics of CEO performance are leadership, strategy, people management, operating metrics, and Relationships with external constituencies.

None of this is true (examples)

1. The answer from the Interviewer to, “What do new employees typically find surprising after they start?” (we would not expect that the he/she is going to come out and tell you that the culture is unwelcoming, etc.).

2. “All we have to do is get 1%?of the market.” (If just 1%?of Americans drink a company’s beverage, it will sell a ton of it. The problem is that getting 1%?to drink it ?isn’t so easy. Another problem is that no one wants to invest in a company that aspires to own only 1%?of the market.)

3. Entrepreneur to me: “….My projections are conservative.” (Me: “Multiply the forecast by 0.1 and add five years”).

4. “People are our most important asset.” (Truth:?“People are our most worrisome and unpredictable asset. Our most important assets are really our financial assets.”)

I think that recognizing the reality and depth of a given situation quickly is helped if you tend to be a short-term pessimist, but a long-range optimist. The human brain doesn't enjoy receiving information that shatters our preexisting beliefs, hurts self-esteem, makes us work more. And admitting that we're wrong about something isn't easy, even if it's for our own good.? But if you can look ahead a bit, you know it is best. In the end, truth is seldom impressive, and may offer little satisfaction. The world as it is.

Henry David Thoreau closes Walden with, "Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me truth. I sat at a table where were rich food and wine in abundance, and obsequious attendance, but sincerity and truth were not; and I went away hungry from the inhospitable board." Was he talking about the kind of truths that feel like a punch to the gut when you hear them? Facing the world as it is? At least if we can look ahead a bit….we know it is best.?

I am glad that I am progressing with transitioning to knowing truth/reality with greater velocity than ever before.