TRUST ESKOM?

Trust…Eskom?

The Government controls Eskom. Eskom is the biggest emitter of green-house gasses (GHG) in South Africa. Eskom is in deep debt and requires serious maintenance. Eskom can control its emissions of GHG’s and power transmission through load shedding.

There is a concern whether the government is being truthful with the public regarding Eskom.

The reason for this concern is, why does the government not clearly communicate with the public the cause of current and past outages?

Outages of power generation units have increased along with load shedding stages.

Making the headlines on 3 April 2023. Eskom is given financial statement exemption for credit rating fears. This decision was reversed later. Is this indicative of someone trying to hide something?

Globally

The war in the Ukraine commenced on 24 February 2022.

From Spring 2021, there was information in the west that Russia was busy building up troops on the Ukraine border. Since the commencement of the war there is a shortage of oil and gas in Europe.

Coal exports have increased to European nations, as more coal is being used to generate power in Europe.

Quoting a recent CBC article, published on June 25, 2022.

The headline “Europe turns back to coal, a “temporary” measure in response to Russia gas cuts.”

The article goes on further to indicate, that coal is dirtier than gas. Coal emits significantly more climate warming greenhouse gasses when burnt.

The German climate-focussed government is, or was on its way to phasing out coal from its energy sector, prior to the war in the Ukraine. The article mentions further that that Italy, Austria and the Netherlands have temporary gone back to coal.

Carbon credits

Carbon credits (CC) have become tradeable, Globally?

These CC are Certificates or permits that represent the right to emit a set amount of carbon dioxide

Or the equivalent amount of a different greenhouse gas.

Carbon credits are issued by the government or regulating authorities.

The carbon market allows investors and corporations to trade both carbon credits and carbon offsets simultaneously.

The international carbon trading market has been around since 1997 Kyoto Protocols.

It was again discussed in the Paris agreement 2015, with the generation of article 6.

Article 6 allows countries to voluntarily co-operate with each other to achieve emission reduction targets. A country will be able to transfer carbon credits earned from the reduction of the green-house-gas (GHG) emissions to help one or more countries to meet their climate targets.

On November 12, 2021 an article is published where Carbon markets rules are formally enshrined in the Glasgow package, where 6-years after the Paris agreement, negotiations agreed on rules for implementing Article 6, paving the way for more effective cross border co-operation.

November 2, 2021, an article published by Reuters indicates the following “South Africa to get $8.5 billion from U.S., Europe and the UK. To speed up shift from coal.?In this article Germany was mentioned that they would be giving 700 million Euros.

October 10, 2022, an article is published where Germany gives South Africa more money to fight against climate change, citizens unhappy with donations.?The article mentions, that

Germany intends to fund South Africa with an additional 355 Euro’s (R6.2 billion) to fight against climate changes. This money is meant for building an inclusive society, climate, energy and economic development. It goes on further to mention that South Africa is the 13th biggest source of greenhouse gasses and funds will transition South Africa to clean energy sources. (It must be mentioned that South Africa produces about 436 million tons of the GHG’s while China, who is the biggest producer, produces around 11?472 million tons.)

Reuters, published March 15, 2023 indicates that Germany GHG Emissions fell 1,9% in 2022, the article notes that Germany was able to keep below its “cap” even when using highly polluting coal for power generation after Russia’s reduced gas delivery.

Evaluation

Eskom publishes a monthly carbon dioxide (CO2) tonnage emissions report. A sharp decrease on carbon emissions is noted from September 2022.

Average monthly CO2 emissions from September 2022 to February 2023 was 14.8 million tons CO2. The average monthly CO2 emissions, 6 months prior to this decrease (from March 2022 to August 2022) was 17.3 million tons. This is a 14.5% decrease in CO2 emissions.

Of interest, data supplied by Eskom on CO2 emissions stops in February 2023. South African’s are aware that stage 6 load shedding continued for an extended period after February 2023, until the beginning of June 2023. It can therefore be safely concluded that that there was (more or less) consistent Power loss during a 9-month period from September 2022 through to May 2023.

Considering that CO2 emissions are a reflection of power generation and that Eskom’s coal fired power stations are capable of producing 45?318 MW’s. It must be then noted that from September 2022 the power supplied to the nation of South Africa decreased (further) by 14.5%. This decrease in power was relatively consistent over a 9-month period as stage 6 levels of load shedding was maintained. This decrease in power to the Eskom coal fired stations could be the equivalent of 6?571 MW’s.

Makes you think…