Trump's Second Term: The Complex Tapestry of Middle Eastern Geopolitics

The landscape of Middle Eastern politics stands poised for transformation as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, bringing with him a complex legacy of diplomatic engagement and strategic ambiguity that characterized his first term. The region, already grappling with multifaceted challenges ranging from ongoing conflicts to economic uncertainties, now faces a pivotal moment that could reshape decades-old alliances and power dynamics. Trump's campaign promises of ending America's involvement in “endless wars” have resonated deeply across the region, yet the intricate web of relationships, interests, and conflicts presents a formidable challenge to any straightforward policy implementation.

The Paradox of Disengagement and Influence

Trump's pledge to disentangle America from regional conflicts presents a fascinating paradox in U.S. foreign policy. While his rhetoric emphasizes withdrawal and non-intervention, the reality of American strategic interests in the Middle East demands continued engagement, albeit potentially in different forms. The region's stakeholders, from Tel Aviv to Tehran, find themselves calculating the implications of this apparent contradiction. The promise of American disengagement has created both anticipation and anxiety among regional powers, who must now consider how to navigate their security and economic interests in an era of potentially reduced American presence.

The complexity of this situation is particularly evident in the ongoing conflicts involving Israel, where the United States has invested substantial diplomatic and military capital. With $18 billion in military aid flowing to Israel since October 2023 and the tragic loss of American service members, the cost-benefit analysis of continued involvement has become increasingly scrutinized. Trump's approach to this delicate balance will likely set the tone for broader regional dynamics, potentially reshaping decades-old security arrangements and diplomatic protocols.

The Israeli Dimension: Netanyahu's Calculations

The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu adds another layer of complexity to the regional equation. Despite Netanyahu's early congratulations to Trump, describing it as “the greatest comeback in history,” their relationship carries undercurrents of tension dating back to the 2020 election aftermath. Netanyahu's expectation of unconditional support for Israeli military operations in Gaza and Lebanon may clash with Trump's campaign promises of peace and conflict resolution.

The Israeli prime minister's strategy appears to rest on the assumption that a second Trump administration would grant Israel unprecedented operational freedom in its regional military endeavors. However, this assumption may prove problematic given Trump's expressed desire to avoid further military entanglements and the growing domestic pressure to reassess the costs of unlimited support for Israeli military operations. The dynamics between these two strong-willed leaders could significantly influence the trajectory of regional conflict and peace initiatives.

Iran: The Nuclear Question and Regional Power Politics

Perhaps nowhere is the complexity of Trump's Middle Eastern challenge more evident than in his approach to Iran. Having abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during his first term, Trump now faces a transformed landscape where Iran's nuclear program has advanced considerably. His past statement, “I don't want to hurt Iran at all. It has a chance to be a great country, with the same leadership,” coupled with expressions of hope for Iran's success, suggests a possible shift from the maximum pressure campaign that defined his first term.

This nuanced position creates both opportunities and challenges. While some members of Trump's potential administration maintain ties to organizations advocating regime change in Iran, others, including Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, have expressed skepticism about military confrontation. The 2025 Project's emphasis on sanctions over military action further reflects this complex policy landscape, suggesting a possible middle ground between confrontation and engagement.

The Gulf States: Economic Concerns and Strategic Realignment

For the Gulf states, Trump's second term presents a complicated calculus of opportunities and risks. These nations must balance their traditional security relationship with the United States against the economic implications of Trump's broader foreign policy, particularly his approach to China. The potential impact of a continued trade war with China on oil prices adds another layer of complexity to their strategic considerations.

The Gulf state’s growing assertion of independent foreign policy positions, evident in their recent diplomatic initiatives and economic diversification efforts, suggests a possible realignment of regional power dynamics. Their response to Trump's policies will likely influence the broader pattern of regional alliances and economic relationships, potentially accelerating the trend toward a more multipolar Middle Eastern order.

Lebanon: A New Focus Through Personal Connections

The unexpected emphasis on Lebanon in Trump's foreign policy considerations, influenced by family connections through his daughter Tiffany's marriage to Michael Boulos, introduces an intriguing dynamic to regional diplomacy. This personal connection, combined with Lebanon's strategic significance in regional politics, could lead to increased American attention to the country's complex challenges.

The question of how Trump might approach the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah becomes particularly significant in this context. His promise to bring peace to Lebanon, while lacking specific details, raises important questions about the potential for American mediation in this long-standing conflict. The influence of Lebanese-American businessman Massad Boulos as an adviser on Middle Eastern affairs adds another layer to this evolving diplomatic landscape.

Regional Stability and the Challenge of Peace

The broader implications of Trump's second term for regional stability remain uncertain. His administration's approach to long-standing conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq will likely influence the overall trajectory of regional peace efforts. The potential for new peace initiatives, like the Abrahamic Accords of his first term, exists alongside the risk of escalating tensions and conflict.

The transition period before Trump takes office presents its own set of challenges and opportunities. Historical precedent suggests that this period often sees significant policy initiatives, particularly regarding Israel-Palestine relations. The current administration's handling of this transition, especially concerning ongoing conflicts and diplomatic initiatives, could significantly influence the initial context of Trump's second term.

Economic Dimensions and Global Power Competition

The economic implications of Trump's foreign policy extend beyond traditional security concerns. His approach to trade relations with China, energy policy, and international sanctions will have significant ramifications for Middle Eastern economies. The region's ongoing economic diversification efforts and the global energy transition add further complexity to these considerations.

The intersection of economic and security interests becomes particularly evident in the context of regional infrastructure projects, energy partnerships, and technology cooperation. Trump's policies on these issues will likely influence the pace and direction of economic development across the Middle East, potentially reshaping traditional patterns of regional cooperation and competition.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty

As the Middle East prepares for Trump's return to the White House, the region finds itself at a crucial juncture. The complex interplay of personal relationships, strategic interests, and economic considerations will shape the implementation of Trump's foreign policy vision. The success of his approach will likely depend on his administration's ability to navigate the delicate balance between disengagement and influence, between supporting traditional allies and fostering new regional dynamics.

The ultimate impact of Trump's second term on the Middle East will be determined not only by his policy decisions but also by the region's response to these initiatives. As regional powers continue to assert their independence and pursue their own strategic interests, the traditional patterns of American influence may require significant recalibration. The challenge for Trump's administration will be to maintain American interests while adapting to these evolving regional dynamics, all while pursuing his stated goal of bringing peace to a region long characterized by conflict and instability.

?From Beirut, Prof. Habib Al Badawi