Trump's Return to the White House: A New Chapter for U.S. Relations with China, India, and South Asia

The confirmation of Donald Trump's return to the White House marks a historic political comeback in American history. With his resounding electoral victory, the global implications of Trump's second term are expected to be far-reaching, especially for the dynamics between the United States, China, India, and the broader South Asian region.

During Trump's first term as president, the relationship between the U.S. and China was characterized by an intensifying trade war. Trump imposed punitive tariffs of up to 19% on Chinese goods, a strategy that the Biden administration initially continued. However, the Biden team also escalated pressure on China by focusing on the Taiwan issue and holding QUAD summits, which heightened tensions in the strategically critical South China Sea, particularly with the involvement of U.S. ally Australia.

Interestingly, the recent timing of the China-India border pact was highly strategic, aligning with the period when the U.S. was absorbed by the 2021 election. This is consistent with a pattern where China and Russia have historically moved to resolve border disputes during periods when the U.S. was preoccupied with internal matters. Similar instances occurred during the 2000s financial crisis and in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Ultimately, the U.S.-China trade war proved to be more detrimental to the U.S. economy than to China. China quickly adapted by finding new markets, while the U.S. faced reduced competition, a rise in the prices of imported goods, and a decline in its manufacturing capacity.

In contrast to the Biden administration's more confrontational approach, Trump's stance on Taiwan and the South China Sea during his first term was relatively more diplomatic. His approach Attempts at dialogue with North Korea also had a tangible impact on China’s posture toward the U.S. Furthermore, Trump’s isolationist policies contributed to the growth of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure development program. In dealing with China, Trump is expected to focus more on economic measures than military ones, likely using tariffs and other economic tools rather than direct confrontation.

The personal rapport between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands in stark contrast to Biden’s perceived lack of familiarity with the Indian leader. While Trump previously criticized India for import tariffs, potentially straining trade relations, the two countries remain each other’s largest trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $190 billion in 2022. During the Biden administration, the U.S. and India were negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), but talks were halted. Should Trump continue his efforts against Chinese trade, he may find an alternative market in India. Geopolitically, a Trump presidency may prove advantageous for India, as the Biden administration oversaw regime changes in two of India’s neighboring countries, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Regarding Afghanistan, Trump had expressed a desire to withdraw from the country, but the chaotic exit under the Biden administration left a turbulent situation. Trump may choose to deprioritize Afghanistan, avoiding further involvement in an existing quagmire.

The implications of a Trump administration for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will vary. In Bangladesh, the pro-Trump sentiment within Prime Minister Hasina's Awami League party and the connections between Dr. Yunus and the Biden administration suggest that a new Trump presidency may present challenges for the current government. During Dr. Yunus's visit to Washington, he met with Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, President Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris but did not engage with any Republican members. This may mean that Dr. Yunus’s influence in Washington could wane under a Trump administration. India is likely to seize this opportunity to exert greater influence in Bangladesh, leveraging the shifting dynamics in its favor.

On the other hand, the AUKUS alliance will remain a priority for the U.S. government. Broadly, Washington will neither pull back from its stance on China nor reduce its focus on India. However, this administration may take a more diplomatic, less provocative approach. Trump’s engagement with the QUAD may also intensify, likely fostering closer U.S.-India collaboration.

Pakistan, which Trump has previously regarded as a state sponsor of terrorism, may face stricter policies under his administration. Meanwhile, China's ongoing challenges with Pakistani extremist groups, which have attacked Chinese construction workers, could further strain Beijing's relations with Islamabad.

For Sri Lanka, the country is unlikely to be a high priority under Trump. However, the Sri Lankan government will likely attempt to build stronger relations with the new U.S. Secretary of State to maintain engagement and aid. The Indo-Pacific strategy will probably continue under Trump, keeping Sri Lanka within the scope of this regional framework. The potential loss of a “secret partner” in the Biden administration may be a setback for the Aragalaya movement. In contrast, India could capitalize on this shift to expand its influence in Sri Lanka, as demonstrated by recent developments, such as the consideration of the Adani power plant and President AKD’s request for Indian assistance in the energy sector—despite his previous opposition to Indian projects during the election campaign.

The coming year promises to be an eventful and transformative period for the geopolitical landscape, with Donald Trump’s return to the White House poised to reshape U.S. relations with China, India, and the broader South Asian region.