Trump’s Return: What Africa Can Expect in a Changing Geopolitical Landscape

I believe that with Trump back in the White House, the global order is in for a shake-up, and Africa will feel the impact.

With the senate in republican hands and the house teetering, it is likely Trump will have even more of his way this time around. Best next step is to objectively prepare for a Trump presidency in Africa. And that will be a real change from the Biden one.

1. U.S.-China Rivalry Intensifies in Africa

Trump’s administration will likely double down on its efforts to counter China’s influence globally.? This will clearly play out in Africa where China remains active.? African leaders may see more trade and investment options from the U.S., especially in sectors like digital infrastructure and energy. But this competition means Africa will have to carefully balance relationships, risking diplomatic strains when pressured to “choose sides.”

2. Shift from Foreign Aid to Economic Partnerships

Trump’s preference for investment over aid could bring opportunities, with more private sector-led initiatives and less dependency on U.S. aid. Prosper Africa may get a renewed push, focusing on bilateral deals that boost specific African economies. AGOA may fall on even more hard times than it is now.? Much like the first Trump administration, expect significant reductions in traditional aid that supports healthcare, education, and poverty alleviation—leaving gaps that will be felt across the continent.? The hundreds of millions stuck in poverty traps will be even more forgotten.

3. Possibly Lower Oil Prices: Relief for Importers, Pain for Producers

Trump’s pro-oil stance and “drill, baby, drill” approach could drive down global oil prices, possibly also reducing the price of fertilizer for Africa’s smallholder farmers. For African oil importers like Ethiopia, Kenya and South Africa, this would mean reduced fuel costs, easing inflation and providing a boost to their economies. But for oil-producing nations like Nigeria and Angola, lower oil prices could strain budgets, increase debt pressures.? Perhaps it will push these economies to diversify and reduce dependency on oil.? All bets are off in the MiddleEast doesn’t settle down though.

4. Stronger Dollar: Mixed Blessings for the Continent

Trump’s planned increases in tariff and higher U.S. borrowing is already causing a sell off in U.S. treasuries, driving yields up.? This in turn is already strengthening the dollar against all major currencies.? Imports from the U.S., like Boeing airplanes for Ethiopian airlines are likely to be more costly. More importantly, a stronger dollar can hit heavily indebted countries like Ghana and Zambia particularly hard, increasing their debt servicing costs and impacting public spending. However, a stronger dollar could make African exports more competitive globally, benefiting competitive exporters like South Africa.

5. Increased Focus on Natural Resources, Less on Sustainability

Trump’s ‘America First’ stance will likely drive new partnerships in African oil, gas, and minerals, aligning with U.S. energy interests. While this could bring cash flow to resource-rich African nations, it might reinforce dependency on fossil fuels at the expense of renewable energy investments. And without strong climate commitments from the U.S., Africa may need to look to Europe and others for green investment.? In the longer run, this policy can punish africa the most given that climate change will negatively affect it disproportionally.

6. Short-Term Security Support Over Long-Term Stability

Security cooperation with the U.S. is likely to continue, particularly in counterterrorism, where the U.S. has strong interests in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. But Trump’s transactional approach could mean tactical support rather than investments in structural stability. Africa might see some immediate security benefits, but with little focus on the poverty and governance issues that drive extremism, long-term stability remains at risk.

7. A Fragmented Global Order and Rise of Regional Players

Trump’s return will accelerate the shift from U.S.-led multilateralism to a world where regional powers—like Turkey, India, and Gulf states—play bigger roles. For Africa, this means more options, but also a complex landscape where alliances are conditional and loyalty is fluid. African leaders will need to strategically balance these relationships, using geopolitical competition to their advantage without becoming over-reliant on any single player.

In the end, Africa doesn’t elect the president in the U.S.? Africa will have to figure out how to work with whoever is elected.? A focus on securing trade, security, and investment from Trump would make sense.? But navigating a fragmented, competitive environment where resources and partnerships come with strings attached will require smart and agile foreign policy.? Africa’s need to empower its poor and deal with the effects of climate change will have to find other partners.

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