Trump's Promise to End Wars: CO2 side effects!

As governments worldwide commit to reducing carbon emissions and promoting environmental sustainability, WARS not only result in human suffering but also have consequences on CO2 emissions, pollution, water scarcity, deforestation and land degradation.

The carbon emissions associated with wars are often ignored in climate discussions, but they are substantial. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East contribute millions of tons of CO2 annually, exacerbating the global climate crisis:

• Ukraine: Since the war began in 2022, CO2 emissions have surged due to the destruction of industrial infrastructure and military operations. Current estimates indicate 12 million tons of CO2 emissions annually (Ukrainian Ministry of Environmental Protection, 2024). The destruction of energy grids and critical facilities, along with military fuel consumption, drives these emissions.
• Gaza: Recent escalations have sharply increased CO2 emissions. Researchers estimate that the past, war in Gaza has generated 3 million tons of CO2 annually (World Bank, 2024). Following the October 2023 Hamas attacks and Israel’s military response, the situation worsened producing the equivalent of burning 150,000 tons of coal only on the first 60 days.
• Syria: The decade-long civil war has resulted in around 13 million tons of CO2 emissions annually due to infrastructure destruction and military operations (Energy & Emissions Analytics, 2024). These emissions come from both the ongoing war efforts and the fires caused by bombings.

Together, these conflicts generate 28 million tons of CO2 annually —equivalent to the annual emissions of Switzerland. This figure, however, only accounts for current military actions and does not include the massive emissions from future post-war reconstruction efforts.

The Carbon Footprint of Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Post-war reconstruction is often overlooked in discussions on CO2 emissions, but it presents a significant environmental challenge. Rebuilding war-torn areas involves sourcing materials, constructing infrastructure, and restoring critical services—each phase of which releases large quantities of CO2.

Studies predict that rebuilding destroyed cities and infrastructure in Ukraine, Gaza, and Syria will add another 30 to 40 million tons of CO2 annually (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2024). For example, in Ukraine, large-scale rebuilding of residential areas, industrial zones, and power plants will require enormous energy consumption and raw materials such as cement, which is highly carbon-intensive.

By adding the 40 million tons from reconstruction to the 28 million tons of CO2 from ongoing conflicts, we reach an alarming total of 68 to 70 million tons of CO2 emissions annually — equivalent to the emissions of countries like Hungary and Portugal together.

The Military Sector’s Global Emissions

Globally, military activities contribute significantly to CO2 emissions, yet these emissions are often excluded from national inventories. Military spending is a major driver of global emissions, accounting for around 6% of the world’s CO2 output (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2024). This includes emissions from the production, transportation, and operation of military equipment. However despite such a contribution, military emissions have been largely excluded from reporting obligations and climate treaties since the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and Paris Agreement.

United States Department of Defense (DoD): The U.S. military is one of the world’s largest institutional consumers of oil, emitting an estimated 59 million tons of CO2 annually (Brown University’s Costs of War Project). To put this in perspective, if the U.S. military were a country, it would be the 47th largest emitter globally, surpassing industrialized nations like Sweden or Portugal.

A significant portion of emissions associated with the military sector arises from the practice of gas flaring, which involves the burning and destruction of oil production, storage, or transportation infrastructure as occurred in Colombia, Libya, Syria, and Iraq. It is estimated that the oil fires from the Gulf War in 1991 contributed to three to four percent of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels that year.

The global arms industry, particularly NATO countries, also contributes to significant emissions. Producing and maintaining military hardware, including tanks, fighter jets, and ships, generates 233 million tons of CO2 annually across NATO (Climate Analytics, 2024).

When these emissions are combined with those from conflicts and reconstruction, the total reaches over 300 million tons per year —equivalent to the emissions of Italy in 2023 and equivalent to the 10% of the total European Union Emissions.

#1 Pollution Crisis in War Zones

Beyond CO2 emissions, wars have an equally devastating effect on air and water quality. The use of explosives, heavy artillery, and other military equipment releases toxic pollutants into the environment, severely degrading air quality and posing long-term health risks.

• Air Pollution: In Ukraine, air pollution caused by war-related activities has led to particulate matter levels exceeding 10 times the safe limits set by the World Health Organization (WHO) (2024). Similarly, in Syria, where military operations have devastated cities and industrial zones, 50% of the population now suffers from respiratory issues linked to air pollution (UN Environment Programme, 2024).
• Water Contamination: Military operations often destroy water infrastructure, leading to contamination of vital water sources. In Gaza, for example, less than 10% of the population has access to clean drinking water, and contamination levels in some areas are five times the WHO’s safety threshold (Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, 2024). In Syria, over 60% of the population lacks access to safe drinking water, largely due to bombings that have damaged treatment plants and polluted groundwater.

2# Land Degradation, Deforestation and Food Insecurity

The destruction of agricultural land and food supply chains during conflicts creates long-term consequences for food security.

• Gaza: Continuous military operations have devastated over 50,000 acres of farmland, worsening food insecurity and causing economic losses of over $250 million (FAO, 2024). This has contributed to rising malnutrition rates, particularly among children and vulnerable populations.
• Syria: The agricultural sector has shrunk by over 70% due to war, with fertile land increasingly degraded. The combination of land degradation and loss of infrastructure threatens long-term food security, putting millions at risk of famine (International Fund for Agricultural Development, 2024).
• During the Vietnam War (1955-1975), for example, between 14% and 44% of forests were destroyed due to explosives and the use of herbicides. More recently, forests in Nagorno-Karabakh were reportedly set ablaze to facilitate drone warfare, agricultural lands in northeastern Syria have been targeted, and protected areas in Israel were set on fire using incendiary kites.

#3 Social Impact of Conflicts

The environmental consequences of war extend into the social realm, with children bearing the brunt of the suffering. Save the Children (2024) reports that armed conflicts have become the leading cause of child mortality globally. Since 2010, over 1.5 million children have died as a direct result of conflicts, while millions more suffer from malnutrition, lack of medical care, and psychological trauma.

Displacement: More than 70 million children have been displaced by conflict in the past decade, increasing their vulnerability to exploitation, trafficking, and lack of education. War-torn regions often struggle to provide basic services like education and healthcare, leaving a generation at risk.

Conclusion

While it's true that Trump has promised to end all ongoing wars, he has also expressed a desire to withdraw the United States, the second-largest emitter of CO2 in the world, from the Paris Agreement. This raises critical questions about the potential direct and indirect consequences of such actions.

"But in the meantime, if we actually stopped all wars, it would be more than just an achievement - I'd be more than happy to settle for that!"