Trump’s lead over Haley in South Carolina shrinks by 8% week-on-week in poll by Republican pollster Trafalgar, signaling a possible upset

The South Carolina Republican primary woke up to news by Trafalgar Group of a final polling result of 1,093 Likely Voters conducted on the eve of the election, February 21-23. The new poll shows Donald Trump’s lead over former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has shrunk by 8% points over a similar poll taken a week ago, the most dramatic evidence to date that Trump’s candidacy is in trouble.

South Carolina Republican Party Presidential Primary Election Poll (Trafalgar, Nov. 21-23)

Trump ?????????????? 59%

Haley??? ?????????????38%

South Carolina Republican Party Presidential Primary Election Poll (Trafalgar, Nov. 13-15)[1]

Trump ?????????????? 63%

Haley??? ?????????????34%

We can draw some preliminary conclusions from the South Carolina polls and the likely outcome of today’s primary election.

First, as the challenger who has continued to rise in the polls week after week, Haley will likely exceed her polling average when the actual Palmetto State votes are counted.

Polling averages are conservative, lagging indicators, in the sense that they average the results of past snapshots of the standing of candidates in the race, not the race’s momentum. ?

Haley has been consistently rising in the South Carolina polls for weeks. Each polling average provides a retrospective picture of where the race stood at an earlier point in time, not of where it stands today.

FiveThirtyEight (538) senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich repeated the often heard statement that Trump leads Haley by about 30 points on average. (In Friday’s 538 podcast, Rakich hedged his bets somewhat, as a good political analyst should.) Two weeks ago, Haley was 34.1% points behind Trump in 538’s average. As of Feb. 23, Trump’s polling average lead has dropped to 27.6%.[1]

The gap between the candidates will likely shrink further after election day votes are counted.

Second, the outcome will confirm American Leadership Review’s view that at least 4 in 10 Republican voters do not want Trump to be their Party’s candidate for President in 2024. That is a devasting statement on Trump’s prospects for victory in the general election.

Third, if Haley’s performance in the deeply conservative state of South Carolina approaches her results in the far more moderate (or liberal) state of New Hampshire, where she lost to Trump by 11% points, it will demonstrate that Trump’s grip on Republican voters is not a given for the remainder of the race.?

Notably, the 538 polling average in New Hampshire showed Trump with a 15.6% point lead over Haley on January 23. The actual vote on election day was Trump 54.4% for Trump, against 43.3% for Haley. Haley outperformed the 538 New Hampshire polling average by 4.5% points.

Fourth, in South Carolina, the entire Republican Party leadership has lined up100% behind Trump against the former twice-elected South Carolina Governor Haley. If 40% or more of South Carolina Republican primary voters reject the Party establishment’s backing of Trump, it will show how far out of step they are with a large share of the Party.

It was presumed that Trump would trounce Haley in South Carolina, where white evangelical Christians form a major of the Republican base.

Receiving anything less than 60% of vote in the Republican primary would be a symbolic defeat for Trump and a warning sign to other Republicans that his coronation as the Republican presidential candidate is far from certain.

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?[1] FiveThirtyEight / ABC News (February 23, 2024). Who’s ahead in South Carolina? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/