Trump’s lead over Biden may be smaller than it looks

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Hello from London,

Faced with no serious Democratic rival, Joe Biden has won the South Carolina primary. Donald Trump will surely triumph in the Republican contest in the state this month too (sorry, Nikki Haley fans). So far, so predictable. The primaries will confirm that November’s presidential race will be a repeat of four years ago—the first such rematch in almost 70 years. (Can you name the candidates in the last one without googling? I admit, I’d forgotten).

Conventional wisdom suggests Mr Biden is in trouble. Yes, he’s old, but it’s largely because voters in swing states are angry about his handling of the economy. Could that change? The economy, after all, is actually fizzing. Inflation is falling, jobs are being created in remarkable numbers and the stockmarket is booming. If investors are right, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a percentage point before votes are cast. Voters also have short memories. Their mood may lift by November if inflation continues to slow. (There are dangers ahead, though, as our new piece on American business makes clear.)

We have some new ways for you to follow the presidential race. First, I urge you to sign up for the US in brief newsletter, free for subscribers. This is where our correspondents assess the most important American political news each day. The US in brief will also provide updates from our data journalists. These will feature our new poll tracker comparing the prospects of Mr Trump and Mr Biden. (Our accompanying story explains why the polls may conceal better news for Mr Biden than headlines suggest.)?

We’re marking a birthday: Facebook turned 20 at the weekend. Meta, its parent company, is in rude financial health but the social network—indeed, all of them—is undergoing profound change. In short, social media is becoming less social. As users lose interest in posting, the platforms are becoming more like broadcasters. Read our take on the end of the social network.

Elsewhere, in El Salvador Nayib Bukele, who calls himself the “world’s coolest dictator”, is set to be returned to power after yesterday’s election. The constitution barred him from running, but he found a way around that. The return of the strongman leader in Latin America is nothing to celebrate.

Thursday will bring yet another election (the year is crammed with them), this one in Pakistan. I used to make frequent reporting trips to this fascinating country. The army dominates politics and much of the economy, to the misfortune of more than 200m ordinary Pakistanis. Now and then the generals let civilians be seen to run the place, but don’t be fooled into thinking democracy is functioning. The election will surely be little more than a sham.?

Finally, watch China. A slump in the stockmarket last week, ongoing worries over the housing sector and anxiety over the economic contest with America are all troubling investors. China’s leaders, meanwhile, are flailing. I’d love to hear your thoughts on how we should respond if China’s economy were to nosedive. Should the world breathe a sigh of relief as an autocratic power stumbles? Or should it fear the economic fallout? Write to us at [email protected].

Adam Roberts, Digital editor

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Trump’s lead over Biden may be smaller than it looks

If America were to hold its presidential election tomorrow, Donald Trump would be picking out curtains for the Oval Office. The Economist’s polling average puts him up by 2.3 points over Joe Biden nationwide. And across the six swing states expected to decide the election—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—he leads by an average of 3.8 points. Betting markets list Mr Trump as a clear favourite. Never in his past two campaigns were his general-election polls this strong. Is it time for the world to brace itself for a second Trump presidency?

Gangsters in El Salvador are terrified of strongman Nayib Bukele

When Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, described himself as the “world’s coolest dictator”, people paid too much attention to the first part of that phrase, and not enough to the second. Whether designer stubble, expensive sunglasses and incessant boasting on social media count as “cool” is of no consequence. Whether another Latin American country is embracing dictatorship matters rather more.

The three threats to American business

America’s stockmarket is on a tear. Over the past three months the S&P 500 index of large companies has soared by nearly 15%, reaching a record high. Recent economic data support investors’ optimism. On February 2nd the Labour Department reported that 353,000 jobs were created in January, far more than expected. The economy grew by a healthy 3.3% (at an annual rate) in the final quarter of 2023. Despite that, inflation slowed to 2.6% on the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, not far off its 2% target. Investors are now betting that by the end of the year the Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate from its current range of between 5.25% and 5.5% to below 4%, putting a rocket booster under America’s economy—and with it America Inc.

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