Trump’s knotted nationalisms, computer-generated leaders, and Putin’s political future

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-Ian

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The Word This Week

Over the past two years, the backlash against globalization has fueled two strains of anti-establishment politics. On the one hand, a rigorous economic nationalism that seeks to revise trade deals and use protectionist measures to restore the manufacturing jobs lost to offshoring and automation. On the other, an identity-based form of nationalism that plainly seeks to redefine who does, and does not, belong in our societies.

In Europe, most anti-establishment parties have leaned towards one or the other of these types of nationalism. But Donald Trump’s improbable run to the White House in 2016 wove them tightly together. He pledged to revise “disastrous” trade deals and promised a raft of protectionist measures to boost employment in the beleaguered Rust Belt. And he also took aim at immigrants and minorities in a way that appealed to the cultural and identity-based fears of his supporters in white working-class America. His message resonated in particular with white supremacist groups, a small but committed slice of the electorate whose support he only tepidly disavowed.

Since taking office, Trump’s ability to push through his economic nationalist agenda has run up against several stark political realities — for starters, he can’t hit China too hard on trade if he wants Beijing’s help on North Korea, and he can’t tear up NAFTA without support from a Congress that is still largely pro-trade.

But his room to push the nationalism of identity and race is bounded only by his sense of moral limits and political calculations. As his handling of the Charlottesville violence shows, Trump’s instincts are to push hard on this issue when cornered, even — or especially — if it alienates elite opinion. Why? Because it plays well to his constituency — polls show that most Republicans liked how he handled the controversy, and that only a slim majority of Americans overall disapproved.

But leaving aside for a moment the moral and historical questions raised by Trump’s stance on Charlottesville and confederate memorials, there is an immediate political problem here: Trump’s identity nationalism may in fact cut against his economic nationalism.

Inflaming racial politics risks alienating the moderates and technocrats within his coalition whom he’ll actually need in order to push through substantive things like infrastructure, tax reform, or real revisions to those “worst trade deals in history.” The swift collapse this week of the President’s two CEO councils on manufacturing and economic strategy was largely symbolic, but the symbolism was potent enough.

Trump’s genius as a candidate was to pull together two threads of nationalism — but as president, is it tying his agenda in knots?

Elsewhere… Argentina’s president Mauricio Macro got a boost when his Cambiemos party beat the Peronists of former president Cristina de Fernandez Kirchner in a nationwide primary vote ahead of the upcoming legislative elections in October. Despite a close result in the key province of Buenos Aires, the non-binding primaries show general support for the reformist Macri’s bid to dig Argentina out from under decades of economic mismanagement.

In other election news, Kenya’s opposition is heading from the streets to the courts to dispute the victory of incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta in last week’s presidential vote. This should reduce tensions in East Africa’s most dynamic economy — the country has suffered fatal election-related violence three times in the past decade.

And in the court of public opinion, much of the world now trusts Putin more than it trusts Trump on global affairs, according to a new Pew Global survey. Neither man enjoys much global goodwill, but even in key US allies like Germany, France, and Japan, people show greater faith in Putin’s judgment on international issues than Trump’s. The Donald, of course, has clearly signaled he doesn’t see global leadership as a benefit to the US — much of the rest of the planet evidently doesn’t see his leadership as a benefit to the world.

Finally… Early next year Russia will hold a presidential election. You’ve probably already placed invisible quotation marks around the last word of that sentence, but just a minute… It’s true that Putin, with an approval ratingabove 80% and nearly complete control over TV (where most Russians get their news) will cruise to victory. But the real risk isn’t so much what happens the day of the election, it’s what begins the day after.

The Russian constitution limits the presidency to two consecutive terms (though unlike the US constitution, it permits a president to sit out a term and then come back for another two — precisely what Putin did when he served as Prime Minister between 2008 and 2012.)

This means that Putin — who has held power for 18 years — will have to figure out what he’s going to do next when his term ends in 2024. One option is to simply change the constitution. But Putin, who can be pedantically legalistic, has resisted doing this in the past, in part out of a desire to preserve the appearance that Russia is, formally, a democracy of laws.

Another option is to groom a reliable successor. In this case, the current klatch of oligarchs and other elites will jockey for position to ensure that whoever comes next will protect their assets and power. Changes of leadership in Russia always elevate some people and destroy others.

Whatever he ends up doing — and Putin has a penchant for unveiling major decisions at the very last moment — Russia’s domestic politics are set to become much more exciting after the election than before it.

Self Promotion Interlude: Eurasia Group’s Jon Lieber and Daniel Kerner talkNAFTA renogotiations and Pence’s trip to Latin America.

What you should watch:

NAFTA negotiations — the US came out swinging at the opening of talks with Canada and Mexico in Washington this week. The White House wants substantial changes to what Trump considers “the worst trade deal in history.” Mexico and Canada support modest updates to reflect the realities of 21st century commerce. The key questions: will the sides be able to complete complex negotiations before 2018 when the politics of US midterm elections and the Mexican presidential vote intrude? Will Trump be able to sell significant NAFTA changes to a Congress that is still largely pro-trade? And if he can’t show red meat on NAFTA to his core supporters in the Rust Belt, how will he compensate?

Angolan political succession — After nearly 40 years in power, strongman Eduardo Dos Santos is stepping aside. His Movement for the Popular Liberation of Angola (MPLA) will win in elections next week, paving the way for his anointed successor, Defense Minister Joao Lourenco, to take power. Hopes are high that Lourenco, an unusually frugal figure in a deeply corrupt and nepotistic political culture, will be able to carry out reforms that diversify and modernize the oil-dependent economy. He’ll be constrained by Dos Santos loyalists and family members, but we’ll be watching the transition closely — as will the Chinese, whose relations with the Dos Santos family have made Angola one of China’s chief commercial outposts on the continent.

Response to Charlottesville from the confederate outpost in Brazil — You read that right. In the 1860s, Emperor Dom Pedro II encouraged refugees from the confederacy to resettle in Brazil, which supported the South in the American Civil War. A century and a half later, their descendants, known as “confederados” still celebrate that history with stars and bars and Dixie-themed festivals.

What you can skip:

US sending weapons to Ukraine — There’s a fresh proposal in Washington to send weapons to the Ukrainian military as Kyiv struggles to hold the line against Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country. The State Department, the Pentagon, and even the White House’s special envoy to the Ukraine peace process, Paul Volker support the idea. But it’s going nowhere. President Trump grudgingly signed the recent Russian sanctions bill, but he is loath to sour relations with his pal Vladimir Putin any further. Moreover, sending weapons to Ukraine risks provoking an escalation beyond what the EU and US are prepared to face. So the Ukraine conflict will remain intractable and frozen — just the way the Kremlin wants it.

Jared of Arabia — President Trump’s son-in-law and top adviser Jared Kushner departs soon on a tour of Arab capitals and Israel in a bid to restart the endlessly defibrillated “Middle East Peace Process”. He’ll aim to get regional powers to agree to a peace plan before presenting it to Tel Aviv and Ramallah. Prospects of a breakthrough are scant at best, and the fact that he is undertaking a mission that would normally fall to the Secretary of State may exacerbate the administration’s debilitating internal rivalries.

Venezuelan rifles arriving in New York and being used to take control of the White House — President Trump’s tin-eared threat of “military intervention” in Venezuela’s ongoing political (and humanitarian) crisis was propaganda manna for the beleaguered Chavista regime, and it earned the US rebukes even from its closest allies in a region. But it was a laugher when the Venezuelan president’s son threatened to retaliate by sending rifles to New York evidently for the purpose of invading Washington. If only Maduro had ICBMs like some other folks…

Laugh of The Week

Since Ian is on vacation this week, it’s time to relive the best moment from Trump’s now defunct manufacturing council. #Goodsoup

Hard Numbers

5,676: There were five thousand six hundred and seventy-six airstrikes in Yemen in the first half of the year, up from three thousand nine hundred and thirty-six for all of 2016.

 63: India and China have been in a high-altitude military standoff for sixty-three days over a small area of disputed territory in the Himalayas. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail.

38: This week the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces visited Turkey, the first such visit by the leader of the country’s military since the Iranian Revolution thirty-eight years ago.

6: Six Australian parliamentarians have been ensnared in a controversy surrounding their possession of dual citizenship, which the country’s constitution expressly prohibits for legislators. Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce may even be from New Zealand. Gasp.

100: As of this week, Nigerian President Muhammad Buhari has been out of his country for medical treatment for over one-hundred days. #YouWinAPrize

Words of Wisdom

“Kenyans will not agree to be led by computer-generated leaders.”

– Kenyan presidential candidate Railia Odinga vows to contest the result of the country’s recent election, which he suggests were computer manipulated.

Signal is guest-penned this week by Alex Kliment with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don’t like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter.

If you like what you see, be sure to sign up to receive it in your inbox first thing every Friday morning: eurasiagroup.net/signal.