"Trump’s Comeback: What ‘America First’ Means for Security, Safety, and Stability, in the Caribbean This Time Around"

As President Donald Trump potentially reenters office, U.S. foreign policy in strategically vital regions, like the Caribbean, is expected to come under renewed scrutiny. Trump’s first term (2017–2021) offers a preview of what a future administration might emphasize—namely, counter-narcotics, immigration control, and combatting transnational crime. This approach prioritizes regional security as part of a broader goal to safeguard American borders.

A Retrospective on Trump’s Caribbean Policy (2017-2021)

In looking ahead to a new term under President Trump, it’s essential first to examine the policies and initiatives he pursued in his previous administration (2017–2021). This retrospective assessment allows us to understand the strategies that shaped the U.S.-Caribbean relationship, particularly in areas like security, immigration, economic sanctions, and regional partnerships. By reflecting on the previous term, we gain valuable insights into how these policies impacted the Caribbean, where they were successful, and where challenges arose.

The rationale for revisiting these earlier efforts is simple yet significant: understanding past actions allows both the U.S. and Caribbean nations to build on effective strategies while recognizing and addressing areas needing improvement. Reviewing specific budget allocations, cooperative programs, and on-the-ground outcomes sheds light on the effectiveness of U.S. support for Caribbean security and stability, as well as the capacity for these policies to adapt to the region's changing needs. With this context, policymakers can approach the upcoming term with a clearer sense of priorities, informed by both successes and lessons learned from the recent past.

Counter-Narcotics Efforts and Law Enforcement Collaboration

The U.S. has long viewed the Caribbean as a strategic frontline in its efforts to combat drug trafficking. With the region historically serving as a major transit zone for narcotics flowing from South and Central America to North America, counter-narcotics initiatives have been a pillar of U.S.-Caribbean relations. Since the 1980s, successive U.S. administrations have invested in collaborative operations and bilateral programs, recognizing that disrupting drug trafficking in the Caribbean has a direct impact on reducing drug availability and crime in American cities. Under the Obama administration, the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBSI) was launched in 2009, aiming to support Caribbean countries in combatting transnational crime through joint training, intelligence sharing, and resource allocation. During his previous term, President Trump reinforced these efforts, though sometimes with limited funding, to increase the region's capacity for drug interdiction.

Looking back at these policies helps illustrate the ongoing priority the U.S. places on addressing cross-border criminal activity. As we evaluate Trump’s return, examining his previous counter-narcotics strategy allows us to anticipate how the new term might adapt to both evolving trafficking trends and the Caribbean’s emerging security needs.

Trump’s administration heavily targeted drug trafficking routes through the Caribbean, frequently deploying the U.S. Coast Guard for joint patrols and interdiction missions. In one notable operation in 2018, U.S. forces collaborated with Caribbean nations, resulting in over 5,000 pounds of cocaine seized near Puerto Rico. Funding through the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBSI)—a cornerstone program for regional law enforcement aid—continued, but often with fluctuating budgets. For instance, CBSI funding was about $58 million in 2019 but faced repeated budgetary scrutiny. This meant that Caribbean nations regularly encountered delays or reductions in support for anti-narcotics training, technical equipment, and law enforcement resources.

The Biden administration took a more holistic approach, shifting focus from hardline interdiction to crime prevention through social and economic investment. While the CBSI persisted, its funds increasingly supported initiatives for community stability, social programs, and public health. By 2022, around $75 million had been earmarked to support economic development initiatives in the Caribbean, marking a noticeable shift from enforcement to prevention.

Immigration and Border Control Policies

The Caribbean is a significant point of entry and exit for immigration flows impacting the United States. For decades, the U.S. has approached immigration control in the region with a focus on reducing illegal entries and securing its borders, mindful of both the region’s geographical proximity and the social, economic, and security challenges posed by unmanaged migration. In his first term, Trump’s administration intensified this focus, implementing policies that led to increased deportations of Caribbean nationals and tighter visa restrictions, in line with his broader stance on U.S. immigration control.

Reviewing these previous immigration policies offers context for how the U.S. approach to border security has evolved and the impact it has had on Caribbean nations that absorb returning nationals. As we anticipate renewed focus on this issue under Trump, understanding the effects of these past policies can inform discussions around achieving a balanced approach to border control that also considers the stability and needs of Caribbean nations.

Under Trump, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) intensified immigration enforcement, resulting in higher deportation rates of Caribbean nationals. In 2019 alone, over 2,000 individuals were deported from the U.S. back to the Caribbean, with significant numbers affecting countries like Haiti and Jamaica. Deportations imposed economic and social pressures on recipient nations, which had limited capacity to reintegrate deportees. Additionally, tighter visa restrictions made travel to the U.S. more challenging for Caribbean citizens, impacting sectors such as tourism and business.

In contrast, the Biden administration implemented less stringent deportation policies and encouraged temporary work visas and family reunifications for eligible Caribbean nationals. Programs like the H-2B Temporary Non-Agricultural Worker Program were expanded, allowing an additional 5,000 workers from the Caribbean in 2021 to enter the U.S. for seasonal employment. These adjustments reflected a more balanced immigration policy that recognized the cultural and economic ties between the U.S. and the Caribbean.

Combatting Transnational Crime and Organized Crime Networks

The Caribbean's position as a crossroad of trade routes has also made it a target for transnational criminal networks. These organizations often engage in a range of illegal activities, from human trafficking to money laundering, which not only destabilizes the region but also threatens U.S. security and financial interests. Throughout recent decades, U.S. administrations have aimed to combat these issues through programs supporting law enforcement collaboration and intelligence-sharing networks in the Caribbean. During his first term, Trump’s administration sought to disrupt criminal networks in the region through targeted initiatives, although challenges with continuity and funding sometimes limited the scope of these efforts.

By examining these earlier actions, we can better understand the potential impacts of renewed U.S. efforts to combat organized crime in the Caribbean. Evaluating past successes and limitations will offer insight into how Trump’s administration might bolster regional partnerships to better address these challenges.

Trump’s policies aggressively tackled transnational crime, focusing on dismantling human trafficking and money-laundering networks. In 2019, coordinated efforts led to the seizure of assets worth over $10 million from organized crime groups with ties to the Caribbean. However, limited financial commitments and unpredictable funding sometimes constrained U.S. operational reach in the region.

The Biden administration continued these efforts but with an emphasis on economic conditions contributing to crime. Increased funding—reaching approximately $80 million by 2023—supported human rights training, poverty reduction, and community rehabilitation, adding a preventative angle to anti-crime measures.

Climate Resilience and Environmental Cooperation: A New Biden Emphasis

While security and border control have typically dominated U.S.-Caribbean policy, environmental resilience has become an increasingly critical area of focus, particularly as climate change continues to exacerbate hurricane intensity and coastal erosion in the Caribbean. The Obama administration led initiatives to support climate adaptation and disaster resilience, which the Trump administration initially deprioritized by withdrawing from the Paris Agreement in 2017. In contrast, the Biden administration’s re-engagement with climate resilience highlighted the importance of environmental stability as a pillar of regional security and economic sustainability.

Reflecting on these shifts helps contextualize how the U.S.-Caribbean relationship can adapt to the urgent needs posed by climate change. For Caribbean nations, which are highly vulnerable to climate-related disasters, understanding how U.S. policies may evolve under Trump’s new term could be pivotal in strengthening joint efforts to protect communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

Environmental cooperation between the U.S. and Caribbean nations saw little focus during Trump’s term, which was marked by his decision in 2017 to exit the Paris Agreement. Caribbean countries, highly vulnerable to climate change, received minimal U.S. support for climate resilience during this period.

Biden’s administration reversed this stance, rejoining the Paris Agreement and channeling resources into Caribbean climate resilience. In 2021, the U.S. allocated over $25 million for disaster preparedness and renewable energy projects, an investment that significantly enhanced the region’s disaster response and mitigation capabilities.

U.S.-China Relations: Competing Influences in the Caribbean

China's growing presence in the Caribbean has introduced a new dimension to U.S.-Caribbean relations, as Beijing has invested heavily in infrastructure, loans, and development projects across the region. The U.S. sees China’s influence in the Caribbean as a potential threat to its longstanding geopolitical interests and a challenge to its ability to maintain strong ties with its regional allies. Trump’s previous administration often approached this competition with a hardline stance, viewing Chinese investment as a destabilizing factor that Caribbean nations should avoid. However, Caribbean leaders have had to weigh the benefits of Chinese investments in critical infrastructure projects that lack sufficient U.S. support.

Evaluating Trump’s previous approach to China’s Caribbean footprint provides insight into how his administration may address this issue going forward. As the region continues to seek economic partnerships to support development, understanding U.S. positions on Chinese investments can guide Caribbean leaders in navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.

During his previous term, Trump expressed concerns over China’s growing economic influence in the Caribbean, notably in infrastructure and port developments. However, concrete measures to counteract this influence were minimal, with limited U.S. funding to rival China’s investment power. By 2019, Chinese loans and investments in the Caribbean had surged to over $7 billion, leaving some countries with substantial debt obligations to China.

While Biden shared similar concerns, his administration sought multilateral support, promoting regional collaboration on technology, tourism, and renewable energy, rather than direct confrontation. The Biden administration’s influence, however, faced limitations given China’s robust investment in Caribbean development projects.

Sanctions on Venezuela and Economic Repercussions for the Caribbean

Sanctions on Venezuela, particularly those targeting oil exports, have had significant ripple effects across the Caribbean, with the end of Venezuela’s Petrocaribe program leaving many nations struggling to meet their energy needs affordably. The U.S. initially implemented sanctions to pressure the Venezuelan government for a political transition, but Caribbean economies, especially Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic, have faced substantial economic strain from increased fuel costs. The Biden administration maintained most sanctions but allowed certain humanitarian exceptions, creating limited avenues for relief.

Reviewing Trump’s previous sanctions policy provides perspective on the complex economic challenges Caribbean nations face due to these measures. Understanding how sanctions impact the region’s energy security and economic resilience may shape how the Caribbean approaches potential policy changes and pressures under Trump’s renewed leadership.

The Trump administration’s sanctions on Venezuela, particularly on oil exports, had a lasting impact on Caribbean economies reliant on Venezuela’s Petrocaribe alliance. As oil exports dwindled, Caribbean nations like Haiti and Jamaica faced a 30% increase in fuel costs, which in turn triggered inflation and budget reallocations to meet rising energy costs. The absence of affordable fuel strained Caribbean budgets, leading some nations to turn to more expensive energy alternatives, which further compounded the region's economic challenges.

Biden maintained sanctions on Venezuela but allowed limited exemptions for humanitarian purposes, including essential supplies. However, the lack of restored access to Petrocaribe continued to impact Caribbean economies, underscoring the region’s dependency on accessible energy sources.

Prospective Policy Directions Under a New Trump Administration

If Trump reenters office, Caribbean nations may anticipate policy shifts reminiscent of his prior term:

1. Stricter Immigration Policies and Deportations: Tighter immigration restrictions and increased deportations could place strain on Caribbean nations with limited infrastructure for reintegrating deportees. In 2020, approximately 2,500 deportations to the region had already exacerbated social services and reintegration programs. A renewed emphasis on this approach could heighten these pressures.
2. Expanded Border and Security Funding Fluctuations: Programs like CBSI, critical for Caribbean security, may again face scrutiny under “America First” policies. Between 2017 and 2020, CBSI funding fluctuated annually, creating challenges for regional security planning. This uncertainty could return, impacting the continuity of regional crime prevention initiatives.
3. Heightened U.S.-China Rivalry in the Caribbean: A potential second Trump administration might reassert diplomatic pressure on Caribbean nations to limit Chinese investment. This could put Caribbean leaders in a challenging position as they weigh American partnerships against the financial benefits of Chinese investment, which by 2020 was estimated to fund over $9 billion in regional projects.
4. Enduring Sanctions on Venezuela and Economic Strain: Venezuela sanctions will likely persist, continuing to affect regional energy prices and economic stability. Without accessible oil from Petrocaribe, Caribbean nations may need to diversify partnerships and prioritize sustainable energy projects.

Conclusion: Caribbean Security and Economic Implications Ahead

For Caribbean policymakers, a Trump re-election would present both opportunities and renewed challenges. Increased counter-narcotics operations and security aid could strengthen crime prevention, while heightened immigration restrictions may add social and economic pressures. Competing U.S.-China influences could spur economic opportunities but also necessitate careful diplomatic balancing.

The path forward will depend significantly on the Caribbean’s ability to adapt to these policies while maintaining balanced international relations. Caribbean leaders may need to prioritize diplomatic engagement with the U.S. to safeguard the region’s interests in areas like immigration reform, security funding, and economic resilience.

Ultimately, Caribbean nations will need to navigate U.S. policy shifts while safeguarding their own stability and growth, balancing security initiatives with economic resilience. This balancing act, compounded by the specter of regional energy shortages, will likely shape the Caribbean’s security landscape in the years to come.