Trump vs Harris: What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Management?

The US election is in 42 days, and supply chain leaders are wondering how the outcome could impact their strategic plans. Many people feel the candidates are vastly different and that voters are choosing between radically divergent paths. While this may be true in many policy areas, on the issues that affect supply chain management, the choices aren’t so starkly divided.?

Here’s a quick breakdown of the implications under a Trump presidency vs a Harris presidency:?

Trade?

Protectionism has been rising worldwide for years, and supply network designs are well along the road to regionalization. This matters because plant location decisions are long-horizon bets, but tariffs and other restrictions can arise quickly, as demonstrated by recent EU action on ASML’s support for Chinese semiconductor makers.?

Trump is vocal about plans to use sweeping tariffs to punish some countries and help US manufacturers. His first move as president in 2017 was to exit the Trans-Pacific Partnership with the stroke of a pen. The likelihood is that Trump's presidency will be a more combative one.?

This adds uncertainty, as well as higher supply chain costs for retailers and manufacturers who source abroad. Inventories will need bigger buffers, and collaboration with chosen suppliers will be harder since landed costs will be volatile. In our latest AI Maturity survey, we found that "Alternative Materials, Sourcing" had the lowest maturity across the entire supply/demand chain –?focusing on this area now could offer a huge competitive advantage in an era of protectionism.?Overall, doubling down on resilience efforts is critical in order to be prepared for potential conflicts that could restrict supply.?

Harris will likely continue Biden administration policies, including targeted tariffs in selected areas like renewable energy, ship-to-shore cranes, and syringes. Plus, incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPs Act, which help selected industries, will continue. The core idea here is industrial policy, which is common practice among US trading partners, including China, the EU, and India.??

The supply chain implications are less unpredictable since the politics driving industrial policy are at least partially visible, but it will still add cost and uncertainty to complex multi-tier global supply networks. There will be more reason to lobby Congress, but net effects on inventories and final product costs won’t be massively different with Harris than Trump.

Bottom Line: Free trade is fading, no matter who wins.??

Labor?

Megatrends, including automation, demographics, and rising social consciousness, all point to the decreasing importance of unskilled labor costs in relation to supply chain performance. This matters because manufacturing will steadily move closer to customers and require massive upskilling among the operators handling emerging robotic systems.?

Trump emphasizes bringing manufacturing back to the US with tax incentives or penalties to encourage domestic production. This aligns with the trend toward regionalized supply chains but includes nothing meant to build the digital skills such manufacturing work will require. He also promises stricter immigration policies, including mass deportations that could affect labor availability in certain sectors, potentially impacting supply chains reliant on immigrant labor.?

For supply chain leaders, this could mean more aggressive unionism, including higher costs and more strikes. UAW President Shawn Fain has been a combative leader, and strike threats facing Boeing, Stellantis, and East Coast ports are a serious concern. Short term, this begs for attentive industrial relations. Long term, it’s all about staying in front of the data and talent needs of next-generation robotics capabilities, including genAI-based training technologies.?

Harris looks likely to strengthen labor protections, expand overtime eligibility and paid leave policies, and encourage easier union formation and collective bargaining. This could lead to increased union influence in supply chain operations. She may also support the reclassification of certain gig workers as employees, affecting last-mile delivery and other sectors.?

As with a Trump win, these policies are likely to increase costs and distract operations leaders with internal conflict when they should be focused on customers and competitors.? The recommendations are the same: pay some people more, handle strike threats tactically, and build the foundation to scale up automation as fast as possible, as UPS is trying to do.?

Bottom Line: The Teamsters won’t endorse either candidate, which shows how little difference there is from a supply chain strategy perspective.?

Sustainability?

With ESG under siege in the media and “greenhushing” a serious phenomenon in corporate comms, it would be easy to assume sustainability is fading as a supply chain concern. This couldn’t be farther from the truth, with most supply chain organizations continuing to invest in decarbonization with equal emphasis on measurement and action.?

A Trump presidency would likely include some rollback of climate initiatives, environmental regulations, and commitments to international climate agreements. There might also be more support for increased fossil fuel production (oil, gas, coal) and cuts in incentives for renewable energy.???

On one hand, these actions will certainly cut into the business case supply chain leaders can make for alternative energy investments. On the other, they may end up just helping companies that are already committed to reducing Scope 3 emissions, like ODP, Ecolab, and Colgate-Palmolive, to stay the course but under less of a microscope.?

Harris, in contrast, is likely to strengthen environmental protections and enforcement and maintain current climate initiatives, international agreements, and incentives for renewable energy production and usage. Whether these policies work as intended (they didn’t, for instance, in the case of plastic bag bans in New Jersey) is an open question given the complexity of climate change.?

Supply chain leaders across industries are 5-10 years into their decarbonization work, with most well in control of Scope 1 and 2 work and many beginning to eat into Scope 3 emissions upstream. The process, product, and technology investments that have already been made were justified, not only to please US regulators but also the EU, the state of California, and consumers (based on the assumption that they will come to care soon enough). There could be some dampening of investment in alternative energy projects if Trump wins, but very few supply chain executives will see a reason to turn back the clock.?

Bottom Line: Sustainability is so embedded in supply chain strategies and technology roadmaps that no matter who wins in November, nearly all will stay the course.?

The US presidential race is the big finale in a huge year of elections around the world. People are understandably emotional about the outcome, but most of what supply chain leaders have been doing all along will still be smart on November 6.?