Trump vs. Harris: What Does It Mean for the Real Estate Market?

With the U.S. elections around the corner, the real estate market could be significantly impacted by the policies of the two candidates—Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

The stakes are high for investors, homeowners, and real estate professionals. Both have had influential roles in U.S. politics, and their potential leadership would we could see some major shifts in the market.

So, what could Trump’s policies versus Harris’s mean for real estate, both domestically and globally?

1. Tax Policy and Real Estate Investment

Trump is well-known for favoring tax cuts, particularly for high earners and corporations. His 2017 tax reform kept the 1031 exchange in place, which allows real estate investors to defer capital gains taxes when they reinvest in new properties. This policy is a big win for large real estate investors and developers because it makes it easier and cheaper to grow portfolios.

Under Trump’s influence, the real estate market would likely remain favorable to investors, with more opportunities for flipping properties, large-scale investments, and commercial real estate expansion.

Harris, on the other hand, has a more progressive stance on taxes. While she doesn’t talk about real estate much, her broader push to tax the wealthy and large corporations could mean a different approach. She’s likely to focus more on affordable housing and supporting middle-class homeowners, which might change tax incentives to benefit first-time buyers and smaller-scale investors.

If Harris’s policies gain traction, large investors might not see as many tax breaks, but there could be more opportunities in affordable housing projects and community-driven developments.

2. Affordable Housing and Urban Development

Affordable housing is a major issue, especially in growing cities. Under Trump, we saw a push for deregulation in the real estate sector. His administration aimed to remove red tape and speed up development projects, which benefited large developers but didn’t necessarily tackle the housing affordability crisis head-on.

If Trump’s influence continues, we’d likely see more opportunities for luxury developments and commercial projects, but affordable housing would remain a challenge without stronger federal support.

Harris has been much more vocal about addressing affordable housing. She has supported federal funding for affordable housing programs and stronger tenant protections. If she plays a bigger role in shaping policy, we’d probably see more government investment in affordable housing, rental caps, stricter regulations on developers, and incentives for projects that serve middle- and lower-income communities.

For investors, Harris’s policies could mean more opportunities in socially responsible real estate—like affordable housing or urban renewal—potentially with government backing.

3. Interest Rates and Housing Demand

Interest rates are a big driver of real estate activity. Under Trump, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, which made borrowing cheaper and fueled a real estate boom. Low mortgage rates were a key factor in driving up housing demand, making it easier for people to buy homes and for investors to finance large projects.

A Trump-led policy would likely push for continued low-interest rates to keep the real estate market hot and encourage more borrowing.

Harris, on the other hand, might support policies aimed at controlling inflation. If inflation becomes a concern, interest rates might rise under her leadership, which would slow down real estate activity by making loans more expensive. While this could stabilize housing prices, it might make it harder for some buyers to enter the market, cooling off speculative investment.

4. Environmental Regulations and Real Estate

One of the biggest differences between Trump and Harris is their stance on environmental regulations. Trump favored rolling back environmental rules to make it easier for developers, particularly in commercial and industrial real estate. His approach cut costs in the short term but raised long-term concerns about sustainability and climate risks.

Harris is a strong advocate for environmental sustainability. Under her influence, we’d likely see stricter green building codes and more incentives for energy-efficient real estate projects. For developers, this might mean higher upfront costs to comply with environmental standards, but it could also lead to long-term savings through energy efficiency and create opportunities in green real estate.

5. Global Real Estate Impacts

Finally, let’s talk about global real estate. Trump is known for his protectionist stance, with policies focused on "America First." This could mean more barriers for foreign investors in U.S. real estate and make international investments less attractive for American investors.

Harris, in contrast, would likely promote more international cooperation, potentially making it easier for foreign buyers to invest in U.S. real estate. This could open the door to more global real estate opportunities and cross-border investments

Final Thoughts

In summary, Trump and Harris represent very different paths for the real estate market. Trump’s approach is about tax breaks, deregulation, and stimulating the market through low-interest rates. Harris’s policies focus more on affordable housing, more regulation, progressive taxation, and sustainable development.

Let me know in the comments who you think will win the 2024 election.