As Trump Visits Asia, China Has the Leverage

As President Donald J. Trump embarks on his visit to Asia (November 3-14), three issues are paramount: the North Korean nuclear escalation and threatening rhetoric against the U.S.; the expanding trade deficit between the U.S and China; and territorial escalations by China on disputed territory vis-à-vis U.S. allies like Japan and Philippines. President Trump threatened to completely destroy North Korea during his speech at the United Nations and referred to Kim Jong Un by a nickname "Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself." Trump attempted an 'unannounced visit' to the demilitarized zone (DMZ) between South and North Korea on Marine One during his trip to South Korea but had to abandon it after 18 minutes of flight due to bad weather.

Significantly, South Korea allowed the U.S. to establish the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile shield system asserting that it acts as a safety valve vis-à-vis the North's missile and nuclear escalation. This act by South Korea angered China who saw it as a threat to its security leading to economic boycott of South Korean goods in China. Yet, just days before Trump landed, China and South Korea have agreed to establish closer strategic cooperation, thereby removing a possible thorn from China's bargaining power vis-à-vis President Trump. U.S. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has attempted to create leverage for Trump by offering to establish very close partnerships with India and including it in a trilateral alignment with Japan, Australia and the U.S. In a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CIIS), Tillerson stated that "We need to collaborate with India to ensure that the Indo-Pacific is increasingly a place of peace, stability, and growing prosperity . In his subsequent visit to India, Tillerson stated that the U.S. supports India's emergence as a major world power and is willing to provide India "advanced technologies for its military modernization efforts. This includes ambitious offers from American industry for F-16 and F-18 fighter planes".

This strategy by Tillerson is perhaps a response to China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative in which it has invested billions of dollars through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). China has kept the pressure on India as well by escalating border disputes in the eastern and western borders, the most recent being the Doklam standoff. This Chinese border strategy surely encourages India to be agreeable to closer military ties with the U.S. At the same time, the Chinese border strategy creates a classic 'Catch 22' paradox for India vis-à-vis China.

This brings us to the question as to who has leverage during Trump's visit to Asia?

China's Leverage

In regard to Northeast and Southeast Asia to include North Korea, South Korea, Japan and Philippines, China wields a strong card': its 'economic leverage'. The China-Japan economic relationship is the third largest in the world, amounting to $340 billion in 2014, and growing every year. China is one of Japan's largest trading partner. China and South Korea have strong economic relations as well, with China being its largest trading partner; a leverage China utilized to pressurize the South over the U.S. missile shield deployment by imposing a year-long economic blockade of the South which cost the South $7.5 billion, and a GDP dip by 0.5 per cent. The blockade was only removed when the South agreed not to seek any more THAAD missiles deployment, and gave commitment not to join a regional missile defense system in cooperation with the U.S. and Japan. In contrast to the U.S. military buildup in South Korea, its current President, Moon Jae-in, is favorable towards diplomacy with North Korea and has cautioned the U.S. against a military strike on North Korea. Increasingly, Chinese diplomats and security analysts assert that the U.S. activities threaten to destabilize a prosperous Northeast Asian region. This view was reiterated by Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswomen, Hua Chunying in October:

"Only by addressing the legitimate security concern of various parties in a balanced manner can we truly open the door to peacefully resolving the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. To this end, various parties need to show more sincerity, sit down at the negotiating table, enhance mutual trust through dialogue, and seek a viable way out for peaceful settlement of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through negotiation".

Even as President Trump visits Philippines and meets with its President, Rodrigo Duterte during his Asia visit, Duterte announced his separation from the U.S. in a speech in Beijing on October 2016. Philippines and China have consequently formed a closer partnership with Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi stating in January 2017 that both countries have "entered a golden period of fast development". Duterte, for his part, wants stronger economic relations with China and is not bullish on the South China Sea islands territorial dispute between the two, a dispute that his predecessor government took to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2013, who ruled in Philippines favor invalidating China's claim to sovereignty on these islands. Subsequently, China has been very active in regional frameworks like the ASEAN, East Asia Summit and its OBOR initiative on the issue.

On the North Korean issue, China maintains substantial leverage given it is the North's largest trading partner. In May 2017, China invited a North Korea delegation to its first Belt and Road summit. At that time, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing submitted a diplomatic note to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in protest given the North's repeated missile and nuclear tests. One should not forget that Mao Tse Tung, the founder of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), had come to the defense of North Korea during the Korean war of 1950. Mao lost his eldest son, Mao Anying in an airstrike on Korean soil during that war. A play dedicated to Mao's love for Mao Anying titled "Mao Zedong and his Eldest Son" opened in the National Centre for the Performing Arts, Beijing, in November 2013 to commemorate Mao's 120th birth anniversary. On hearing of his son's death, Mao is famously quoted as saying to those around him, "Sons of the people can shed their blood on the battlefield. Why cannot mine?"

For better or worse, Northeast Asia's geopolitics is complicated. President Trump's favored strategy of escalatory rhetoric to gain 'bargaining leverage' followed by compromise from 'prominent others' in his administration, is rather apparent. The same escalatory 'rhetoric' strategy was followed by Candidate Trump in August 2016 when he called China a 'currency manipulator', promising to blacklist China on the first day of his Administration, only to reverse his stand as President in an interview to The Wall Street Journal in April 2017. At that time, China's role in North Korea prompted Trump to change his mind. With regard to Trump's Asia visit, China has two leverages it can utilize: its economic clout and its close alliance with North Korea.

The world will have to wait and see how President Trump utilizes tips from his book Trump: The Art of the Deal in dealing with China on its own turf. For instance, will his showcasing of U.S. military might at his UN speech "we will be spending almost $700 billion on our military and defense", work to his favor in creating strategic leverage in Asia? He has famous company in George F. Kannon who stated, "“You have no idea how much it contributes to the general politeness and pleasantness of diplomacy when you have a little quiet armed force in the background”. With China modernizing and improving its own fire-power over the years, it could be a win-win.

Dr. Namrata Goswami is a Senior Analyst and a 2016-2017 Minerva Grantee. All views expressed here are her own.