Trump Victory, Tzitzikostas Hearing, & UK Budget: GMPB
Green Mobility Magazine
Empowering professionals with sustainable transport intelligence.
Covered in this Green Mobility Policy Brief: Trump Victory: EU Mobility Stakeholders Brace for Impact; Apostolos Tzitzikostas Lightly Grilled by MEPs About Vision for EU Transport Sector; 2024 UK Autumn Budget: Policy Boost for Sustainable Transport and Infrastructure; Hydrogen Horizons: The IF24 Auction Set to Propel Europe’s Green Transport Revolution; UK Increases Air Passenger Duty in Latest Budget.
Trump Victory: EU Mobility Stakeholders Brace for Impact
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Brussels, Belgium – The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States has introduced uncertainty for transport stakeholders in the European Union (EU), with expected changes in US policy on tariffs, investment, and climate action.
Tariffs and Trade
With Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on all US imports and higher rates for Chinese products, biofuel feedstock prices could rise, and retaliatory tariffs could reduce export opportunities for American Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) producers who, according to ICAO data, account for 65% of global SAF production.
The European aircraft sector, including global giant Airbus, may also face challenges, as Trump’s victory could usher in a wave of aerospace protectionism aimed at propping up Boeing during an intense period of restructuring.
European carmakers are also bracing for impact. Trump has previously expressed his desire for German car companies to become American, suggesting substantial tariffs for those not moving production to the US. According to ACEA data shared with Green Mobility Magazine, over €50 billion worth of vehicles are traded annually across the Atlantic, which could disrupt a highly interdependent market.
Investments
The future of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), enacted by Biden in 2022, is now uncertain. Trump has criticised the “Green New Scam” and promised to terminate the IRA, which provides significant support for SAF, hydrogen, electric vehicles, and more. However, he may face opposition from Republican-held states and industrial lobbies benefiting from IRA funding. The potential non-renewal of key tax credits beyond their 2027 expiry is also a concern.
Climate Action
The US could (again) withdraw from the Paris Agreement, frustrating global climate cooperation.
The USA could also review its participation in the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, also known as CORSIA, weakening the already criticised global scheme aimed at reducing international aviation emissions. In 2026, the European Commission will assess whether CORISA is sufficient for flights to/from Europe and may extend the EU ETS to international aviation, leading to potential friction in the US-EU relationship.
Domestically, Trump’s energy policy, outlined in the Project 2025 document, focuses on ending the “war on fossil fuels,” restoring energy independence, opposing wind power, and promoting consumer choice in vehicle purchases. This stance could slow the transition to electric vehicles and negatively impact automakers’ electric vehicle strategies both in the US and around the world.
EU Stakeholder Response
EU transport stakeholders are assessing the implications of Trump’s victory and preparing for potential disruptions and new opportunities.
Julia Poliscanova (she/her) , Senior Director of vehicles & E-mobility Supply Chains at T&E , commented:
“Clearly Trump is terrible news for global climate action. He has made clear that he would pull the US out of the Paris Agreement again and has regularly made climate-sceptic statements. There are also risks around the implementation of the US Inflation Reduction Act, the landmark climate legislation introduced by the Biden administration to decarbonise the transport and energy sectors in the US. However, despite the outcome, Europe has already shown it can lead and advance the clean energy transition at home and abroad, regardless of who’s in power in the US. We must continue this leadership, doubling down and implementing the EU Green Deal.”
Matthias Schmidt , European Automotive Market Intelligence Analyst, told the Green Mobility Magazine that European automakers are currently looking at options to mitigate tariffs:
“In a few words I would say, for the likes of BMW and Mercedes that have large production sites in the US, it won’t be too much of an issue. Zipse (BMW) said yesterday that they have a 65% local production mix content in the US (85% in China) while the likes of VW also have a US facility with room for expansion, while they are also currently constructing a facility for their US Scout Motors operation. Volvo Cars are also ramping up at their US facility currently with the EX90/XC90 and Polestar 3. It will likely hit all four of those mentioned though when it comes to lower priced small sector models which are imported”
Schmidt did, however, note that major automakers were not out of the woods, explaining that “all three German OEMs are at risk of being impacted by tariffs aimed at their NAFTA Mexico facilities which could end up running at under utilisation if Trump hits Mexican imports which will keep them awake at night”.
Mark Watts FCILT FRSA , Director at LP Brussels and Green Mobility Magazine Editorial Board Member, emphasised the need for EU action:
“The return of Trump is a wake-up call for Europe, especially in our transport sector. To avoid our own “Trump moment,” we need honest dialogue and bold action. Europe’s transport sector isn’t decarbonizing fast enough, fuelling social and economic unease as manufacturing and jobs shift away from our expensive, heavily regulated and taxed EU. Yet, we’re still stuck in self-congratulatory events in Brussels, ignoring the reality. The solution? Build a just society as the foundation for a just transition.”
The European Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, warmly congratulated Donald Trump on his presidential victory and emphasised the bond and partnership between Europe and the United States, inviting the President-elect to work together a “transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver”.
Apostolos Tzitzikostas Lightly Grilled by MEPs About Vision for EU Transport Sector
BRUSSELS — Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the Greek Commissioner-designate for Sustainable Transport and Tourism, appeared before the European Parliament’s Transport and Tourism (TRAN) Committee and Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI) on November 4, 2024, to present his vision for the EU’s transport and tourism sectors. His agenda targets climate goals, regional connectivity, and industrial competitiveness, aiming to balance environmental, economic, and social priorities for a sustainable future across Europe.
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Driving Competitiveness and Sustainability in Transport
Describing transport as the “backbone” of Europe’s connectivity, Tzitzikostas introduced plans to make the sector more resilient and climate-conscious. A central component of his agenda is the decarbonisation of all transport modes. “Transport is the only sector whose emissions have risen since 1990,” he observed, expressing his commitment to the EU’s Fit for 55 climate targets.
2024 UK Autumn Budget: Policy Boost for Sustainable Transport and Infrastructure
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reaves presented the Autumn Budget, outlining a comprehensive policy plan to “fix the foundations of the economy and deliver change by protecting working people, fixing the NHS, and rebuilding Britain.” Central to this plan is a robust commitment to sustainable transport and infrastructure, with significant policy measures designed to modernise the UK’s transport network, boost economic growth, and promote environmental sustainability.
Key Policy Highlights for Sustainable Transport
The budget allocates over ￡100 billion in capital investment over the next five years, with a substantial portion earmarked for transport infrastructure. This investment is designed to unlock growth-enhancing schemes such as East West Rail, which will connect Oxford, Milton Keynes, and Cambridge, supporting the wider Cambridge life sciences cluster.
Hydrogen Horizons: The IF24 Auction Set to Propel Europe’s Green Transport Revolution
As Europe pushes forward in the global race toward?climate neutrality, hydrogen has become the cornerstone of its energy transition strategy. Now, the stage is set for the?IF24 Auction, launching on?3 December 2024, which promises to expand Europe’s?renewable hydrogen market?even further. Following the success of the?IF23 Auction, which was hailed as a breakthrough for?Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO)?hydrogen production, this upcoming round could be a game-changer for decarbonising heavy industries and transport sectors across the?European Economic Area (EEA).
IF23 Auction: A Turning Point for Clean Hydrogen
The?IF23 Auction, held between?November 2023?and?February 2024, marked a significant milestone in Europe’s hydrogen journey. Attracting?132 bids?from?17 European countries, it exceeded expectations by a wide margin. Seven projects emerged victorious, securing nearly?€720 million?in funding to kickstart hydrogen production on a massive scale. These projects are set to produce?1.58 million tons of renewable hydrogen over the next decade, powering industries like?steel, chemicals, maritime transport, and?fertiliser production. A major success of the auction was the highly competitive pricing, with winning bids ranging from?€0.37 to €0.48 per kilogram—far below the auction ceiling price of?€4.5. This not only demonstrated the market’s readiness but also set the foundation for the IF24 Auction to be even more ambitious.
What’s New in the IF24 Auction?
The upcoming?IF24 Auction?builds on the pilot’s success with several key enhancements aimed at attracting mature and competitive projects:
Daniel Fraile: Insights from Hydrogen Europe
In an exclusive interview, Daniel Fraile , Chief Policy & Market Officer at Hydrogen Europe , provided valuable insights into the role the Innovation Fund?plays in Europe’s hydrogen strategy and why it is pivotal for decarbonisation.
UK Increases Air Passenger Duty in Latest Budget
LONDON – The UK government has announced an increase in Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates for the tax year 2025 to 2026, as part of the latest budget measures unveiled at the Spring Budget 2024. The move aims to align APD receipts more closely with inflation and ensure that airlines and aircraft operators continue to contribute fairly to public finances.
Policy Objective
The increase in APD rates is designed to address the recent disparity between forecast and actual Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation, which has led to a real-terms decrease in APD rates. By adjusting the rates, the government seeks to maintain the financial contribution of the aviation industry to the public purse.
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