Trump Transition | K-12 Ballot Measures | Superintendent Races | OPMs Beware the Lame Duck
This week, W/A co-founders Anna Edwards and Ben Wallerstein teamed up.
With President Biden assuring the country that he will oversee a peaceful transition of power after voters re-elected Donald Trump by decisive margins, the former president now has 10 weeks to formally prepare his return to the White House.
Of course, this isn’t Trump’s first rodeo.
Behind the scenes, his team has been laying the groundwork for months, working to identify political appointees for roughly 4,000 government positions—a third of which require Senate confirmation. Those appointments represent less than one percent of all federal employees, but they’ll be responsible for pursuing the major policy promises Trump made on the campaign trail.
As the parlor games commence over who is likely to fill which cabinet positions, take predictions with a grain of salt and be wary of those who claim certainty in knowing. Just because Trump supporter and Oklahoma State Superintendent Ryan Walters sent a letter to parents planning for the elimination of the U.S. Department of Education doesn’t mean he’s getting a seat at the table. Perhaps the nominee for education secretary will center less on education experience and more on the sort of management skills that could be needed to reimagine, and reorganize functions that may no longer sit within a single federal agency.
If you want to use history as a guide, here’s when the last three president-elects announced their choices for education secretary—none of whom garnered much in the way of media and insider attention ahead of their actual appointments:
No matter the pick, restructuring a federal agency or (more consequentially) making changes to the programs and funding streams administered by the Department won’t happen overnight. And, if anything is clear, it's that the Administration's rhetoric likely signals increased deference to states, which may welcome the increased flexibility. While we’ve been experiencing gridlock in Washington in recent years, there’s emerging bipartisan consensus among the nation’s governors and state chiefs when it comes to a handful of policy priorities—from high school transformation to more comprehensive accountability systems, work-based learning, and the implementation of recent science of reading laws.
From a higher education standpoint, Trump’s policy plans could include some bold policy moves, like wresting control of the accreditation process, or fining colleges and universities with excessively large endowments and using the money to establish an online “American Academy” that offers credentials without charging tuition.
What we know for sure is that major Biden administration policies, including the expansion of protections for LGBTQ+ students through Title IX and student loan forgiveness, are likely to be among the first things to go. We’re paying close attention to proposals from Linda McMahon’s America First Policy Institute as well.
Of course, until any of this is written on administration letterhead, it’s all conjecture.
There will continue to be more questions than answers in the months to come. How soon might Trump commit to eliminating the Education Department (which requires approval from Congress)? If that happens, which departments would absorb the current federal education programs? If Republicans keep the House, will we see a tax credit scholarship program advanced through budget reconciliation? What might be the ramifications of a deportation plan on K-12 schools, where roughly 4.4 million students have at least one undocumented parent?
Stay tuned in the weeks ahead.
In this week’s edition of Notes, we round up the “Top 5 Articles of the Week.”
We’re also covering:
Voters Decide: K-12 Ballot Measure
Note: For the purpose of this analysis, all results have been rounded to the nearest percent.
Last week, W/A shared an update on 17 education-related ballot initiatives . Here’s what happened:
Colorado voters rejected Amendment 80 , which would have codified a school choice provision into state law. Of the 55% supporters needed for the initiative to pass, 48% voted yes.
Kentucky voters decisively said no to Amendment 2 , which would have granted the General Assembly constitutional authority to fund students at non-public schools with state funds. Gov. Beshear (D) expressed support for the result, releasing a statement that called for increased public school funding .
Massachusetts voters were tasked with deciding whether a baseline score on the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System (MCAS) should remain a high school requirement. You can find our insights on the measure here . Ultimately, with 59% of voters in support, the MACS score requirement was nixed and removed from the state’s set of high school graduation requirements.
Amendment 1 in Florida asked voters to decide whether school board elections should be decided on a partisan basis. 60% approval was necessary to pass this measure. Only 55% of citizens said yes, not enough to alter the system.
Amendment 1 in Alabama passed with flying colors, as 74% of voters supported transferring management of the 16th section and indemnity school lands to the Franklin County Board of Education.
In Arkansas, Issue 1 passed with flying colors, as nearly 90% of voters felt that lottery funds should go towards scholarships for students attending vocational and technical institutions.
Top 5 “What We’re Reading” Articles of the Week
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Standout Results From Superintendent Races
As W/A predicted last week, while Trump won North Carolina, Democrat Mo Green eked out a victory against Republican Michelle Morrow . Morrow had beaten the incumbent, Republican Catherine Truitt, in the primary.
The Montana race saw an almost exact opposite outcome, with Republican Susie Hedalen defeating Democrat Shannon O’Brien .
In North Dakota, incumbent Kirsten Baesler pulled out a decisive win against Jason Heitkamp , a former North Dakota State Senator. Baesler plans to continue pushing for local educational oversight and ensuring students are set up for success post-graduation.
The Superintendent race in Washington has not been called yet.
5 Takeaways: How Will the Election Impact Higher Ed Policy at the State Level?
With all eyes on Washington, the shifting sands of state higher education policy garnered little attention this week. But state budgets will have a profound impact on everything from student aid to university budgets, infrastructure improvements, and workforce development. Here are a few highlights from state and local races that will impact higher education in the year ahead.
OPMs: Beware the Lame Duck
The election results this week have raised questions about just what the Biden administration may seek to accomplish over its final two months.
OPMs are paying especially close attention in the wake of rumblings that subregulatory guidance which enables the business model might be on the chopping block.
In response, the U.S. House Committee on Education and the Workforce Chairwoman Virginia Foxx (R-NC) issued a letter which raised concerns about the U.S. Department of Education (ED) efforts to rescind the 2011 Dear Colleague Letter . This letter created a safe harbor within the Higher Education Act’s ban on incentive compensation by allowing revenue sharing for “bundled services” that include recruitment.
Thus far, ED has tiptoed carefully around potential changes to the letter , signaling they want to review it carefully and that any changes could have a significant impact to learners.
An April 2022 GAO Report noted there were at least 2,900 higher education programs that partnered with Online Program Managers, which raises questions around how an abrupt policy decision may play out. If ED were to rescind the guidance, higher education institutions themselves would now be tasked with determining what revenue-share arrangements are allowable.
The W/A team will be watching this issue—and the Department’s actions in general—closely over the coming weeks.
Please reach out to us with any questions.
CSSCO Report: Six Ways to Improve Math Achievement
The Council of Chief State School Officers (CCSSO) released a new report outlining six actions state leaders can take to support math achievement. It highlights the key findings from the 2008 National Math Panel and states leading within each of these actions. [K-12 Dive]
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1 周Thanks for covering the transition stuff. I'll be counting on your level-headed coverage.