Is Trump Right on China? Prepare for the looming Superpower Shift
U.S. President Donald Trump shocked the world last week by distancing the U.S. from its European allies while signaling a warmer stance toward Russia. At the same time, his administration imposed new investment restrictions largely aimed at China (Is this newsletter forwarded to you, sign up here to get it direct to your inbox).
That has raised the question: Is Trump’s ultimate goal to end the Ukraine war quickly and shift America’s focus to countering China’s economic rise?
Not only the sudden foreign policy shift, Trump, along with Elon Musk’s DOGE squad is drastically forcing the federal workforce cuts, triggering mass layoffs and administrative leaves. The cost-cutting measures are expected to have far-reaching economic impacts domestically and globally.
For one, Trump’s trade restrictions don’t just target China—Canada and Mexico also face tariffs, though both received temporary extensions. However, China, coming out of Trump's first term’s trade war, having strategically diversified its trade relationships in recent years, is arguably in a stronger position to weather these tariffs than before.
The U.S. investment restrictions announced on Feb. 21st, add another layer to the economic battle. These measures introduce stricter scrutiny for Chinese companies seeking to list on U.S. stock exchanges and enhance the review process for those already listed. While this move may deter Chinese tech and biotech firms from pursuing Nasdaq listings, many could opt for alternative markets such as Hong Kong, further strengthening China’s financial independence.
So the question remains, can U.S. trade restrictions curb China's economic power, or will they accelerate Chinese tech companies seeking listings elsewhere?
Biotech’s New Frontier
While China has expanded its trade footprint beyond the U.S., and seek a higher level of self-reliance through nurturing a big, integrated domestic market, it still heavily relies on American technological innovation, especially in high-end semiconductors.
Washington’s tightening grip on Chinese access to U.S. capital and innovation presents significant challenges for Beijing’s ambitions in high-tech sectors.
?However, China has shown resilience by investing in domestic alternatives and securing partnerships in Europe, Africa, and Latin America to counterbalance U.S. restrictions.
Through local partnerships, Chinese biotechs are expanding in India and the European market. The latest America First Investment order is expected to accelerate the shift. Despite the U.S. market remains the ultimate destination for many aspiring Chinese biotech companies looking to go global and launch their new drugs globally.
?Collaboration or Self-Reliance?
The critical question is whether Trump’s policies will push China further toward self-reliance. If Beijing responds as it did during Trump’s first term—strengthening alliances and accelerating domestic innovation—U.S. restrictions may ultimately weaken America’s own influence.
If that’s the case, the global landscape could undergo profound changes:
Whether Trump’s strategy secures long-term American dominance or accelerates a shifting world order remains an open question.
The real challenge for Washington is not just imposing restrictions but strategically outmaneuvering Beijing in this high-stakes battleground to shape the competitive landscape of the future.
(Comments? email me at brianhxyang @yahoo.com ）