Trump-Proofing Europe

How the Continent Can Prepare for American Abandonment

As leaders and policymakers from around the world converge in Germany for the Munich Security Conference this weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the war in Ukraine loom over the gathering, signaling a potential unraveling of years of transatlantic unity in the face of Russian aggression. Given Trump’s history of threatening NATO withdrawal, dismissing European allies, and praising U.S. adversaries, including Putin, the continent’s leaders are now confronting the possibility that the United States may abandon its role as a guarantor of European security.

But a less dependable U.S. partner need not be all bad for the continent, argued Arancha González Laya, Camille Grand, Katarzyna Pisarska, Nathalie Tocci, and Guntram Wolff in a 2024 essay. Europe may not be able to count on the Trump administration to support its defense, economic, or climate goals, but it can seize the moment to become more self-sufficient. “U.S. disengagement will offer Europe an opportunity to stand on its own feet,” they wrote, “and show the world that it can be a reliable ally in places where the United States starts to fall short.”

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-proofing-europe