TRUMP message to PUTIN (Step 2)

Since the subject of negotiation is an area of unwavering interest for me, we are now witnessing the initiation of one of the most challenging negotiation processes in recent years—perhaps even decades. Naturally, I couldn’t miss one of the most anticipated events: the opening of the negotiation process between the United States and Russia.

Today, on January 22, 2025, President Donald Trump, on his first official workday following the inauguration (excluding the ceremonial signing of executive orders for the media), made his opening statement on Truth Social. Directed at the Russian leadership, he wrote the following:

"I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin—and this despite the Radical Left’s Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process. All of that being said, I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a “deal,” and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way—and the easy way is always better. It’s time to “MAKE A DEAL.” NO MORE LIVES SHOULD BE LOST!!!"

While this rhetoric was expected by the Russian side, as researchers of such processes, we are particularly interested in how Russia, and more specifically President Putin, will respond. In this case, there aren’t many possible scenarios, as Moscow has been anticipating this opening move (Putin has publicly advocated for the resumption of direct communication several times, most recently at the Security Council meeting (STEP 1). Trump has now made his first official move. From my perspective, it was delivered respectfully, cautiously, and in a measured tone—albeit with a hint of pressure.

I’d like to focus on the triggers deliberately embedded in Trump’s public statement, which are almost certain to elicit a reaction from Moscow. The response must be sharper than the original message—or at least equally sharp—to ensure that, on one hand, there’s no perception of weakness or submission, and on the other, to convey genuine interest in dialogue.

Key Triggers Worth Watching:

1. "We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process." This is a significant jab at the consciousness of any Russian (or Soviet) citizen, for whom the history of the state is divided into three key eras: Before the Great Patriotic War, the years of the war itself (1941–1945, culminating in Victory), and the Post-War Period. The phrase “they helped us during World War II” will not go unnoticed and will likely provoke a sharp, mirror-like retort.
2. "Economy is failing." This is a direct affront to those in Russia who point to the country’s position as the fifth-largest economy in the world by purchasing power parity (ahead of Japan) and its continued growth. While a response to this trigger isn’t guaranteed, it’s likely, given that such statements often require the Russian president himself to address the matter. This topic might even take center stage in Putin’s response.
3. "A very big FAVOR." This phrase is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. It challenges Russia’s status and will undoubtedly demand a response. Crafting a reaction to this statement will likely be the most challenging part for Russian officials.
4. "If we don’t make a 'deal,' and soon." While vague, this phrase subtly implies a call for urgency. It’s likely that Moscow will propose two options for meeting times and locations, in line with standard diplomatic practice, and will make this public.

Given the intricacies of U.S.-Russia relations, domestic media in Russia will soon flood with responses that will collectively shape the government’s position. However, the answer to the final question will most likely come directly from the Russian leader during a high-profile event involving journalists. He does not use social media, he uses TV picture.

Observations:

This analysis does not take into account any private exchanges of information between the two parties teams, which I assume remain minimal at this stage. For now, the focus is solely on the initiation of direct communication, which is the primary subject of our study.

We are witnessing a high-stakes negotiation from a position of strength at the highest level. Historical examples—from the Crusades to the Cuban Missile Crisis and the START II (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II) treaty—sadly suggest that neither side tends to achieve outcomes entirely on their terms. However, let’s remain hopeful that this time might be different.