Trump: Media Magnet

For me, the high point of the Obama Administration wasn't the nuclear deal with Iran, the opening to Cuba, the passing of the Affordable Care Act, the speech in South Carolina, the Transpacific Trade Pact, the Paris Agreement on climate change, the wind down of Middle East wars or regulatory reform. No, for me, the high point came near the very end of his administration when Obama introduced Comedy Central's Luther the anger translator (Keegan Michael Key) at his final appearance before the annual correspondent's dinner.

President Obama's anger translator - https://tinyurl.com/nt8jaqr

The significance of that sketch, which concludes with Obama losing his cool - for the first time? - in spite of Luther's intervention is the reality that Obama appeared to truly need an anger translator. In retrospect, the event highlights a major shift in fortune for the media and its role in the current administration.

There is a perhaps predictable irony that during the Obama administration Fox News was the pre-eminent source of cable news. While the major networks plus CNN and MSNBC may have been sympathetic to Obama, that sympathy produced nothing but lousy ratings. Comedians and Obama himself routinely teased MSNBC for its perennial also-ran status among cable news providers. In May, MSNBC surged to the number one slot on its reporting of various Trump controversies.

Times have certainly changed. Obama's no-drama approach to politics and studied process-oriented decision making made for the most uncompelling news content imaginable. I was quite conscious of this at the time - that Obama seemed to go out of his way to stay out of the limelight - and I admired him for it.

The hostility between the press and the Obama Administration was on a different, more subtle and sinister, level. Obama's confrontation with the press was built on a different form of condescension that can only come from a former law professor. Trump may be more directly and obviously offensive, while Obama treated the press as misbehaving and poor-performing students who didn't do their homework.

But the sun is shining on the media now. Under President Trump, MSNBC ratings have skyrocketed with Fox in decline. There is nothing more poisonous to Fox's ratings than a fawning chief executive in the White House.

Trump's primary source of comfort, often against the advice of counsel, is to court and actively seek out the limelight of any kind - fair and balanced or otherwise - turning TV viewers into political junkies strung out on the investigation-driven high-wire act in Washington.

While Obama clearly did his best to shield his children from the media and public scrutiny, Trump has dragged or thrust (you choose your verb) his family to the forefront potentially exposing them not only to unflattering analysis but also legal liability. So, yes, that means that for all of his criticism of "fake news" and the evil and corrupt media, there is a clear co-dependency that increasingly looks orchestrated.

But let's just say, for the sake of argument, that these outcomes are unintended - that President Trump really isn't trying to help the media - what other unintended consequences has his administration produced or is it producing? This is worth exploring given the Trump Administration's marked inability to actually pass major legislation of any kind. I have three such unintended consequences in mind:

A) Self-deportation and emigration to Canada

B) Kickstarter healthcare

C) The rise of toll roads (and gas taxes)

President Trump never used the term self-deportation - which was coined by 2012 presidential candidate Governor Mitt Romney. Immigrants have nevertheless gotten the message that the welcome matt has been removed with media reports of thousands of Central Americans returning home unaided and a growing tide of immigrants from a variety of homelands crossing the border surreptitiously into Canada. By the time the current administration comes to understand the contribution that immigrants make to economic growth, it will be too late to reverse that negative impact.

With all of the Republican-proposed alternatives to the Affordable Care Act predicted to throw millions of Americans off their health insurance plans, experts report that consumers may be increasingly forced to turn to crowd-funding for their healthcare in urgent situations. Bloomberg described the phenomenon in a recent article: "American Health Care Tragedies are Taking over Crowdfunding" - https://tinyurl.com/yd2ygaot

Facing a lack of progress on finding the funds for promised infrastructure investments, Trump has floated his willingness to support gas tax increases to support the effort along with public private partnerships - or PPPs. It's clear that fellow Republicans will be hostile to tax increases of any kind - particularly gas tax increases. Democrats never really tried to touch that political hot potato. Proposing gas tax increases is an act not only of desperation but political suicide for Republicans.

PPPs, on the other hand, is just code for toll roads. That's likely another non-starter if you talk to Texans. Texas is awash in toll roads that are increasingly angering the very Republicans that introduced the concept to overcome a shortfall in infrastructure funding. Texas has recently found itself bailing out its financially troubled toll road operators.

https://tinyurl.com/yd9sluce - "Trump's Infrastructure Plan Heading for Texas-sized Roadblock over Toll Roads" - Dallas Morning News

So, self-deportation is definitely happening, crowd-funded healthcare is emerging, higher gas taxes and more pay tolls are pending - but one thing is for sure: We will always know what President Trump is thinking (tweeting). President Trump will never need a Luther, the anger translator. And it's all very good news for the "fake news" media.

Roger C. Lanctot is Director, Automotive Connected Mobility in the Global Automotive Practice at Strategy Analytics. More details about Strategy Analytics can be found here: https://www.strategyanalytics.com/access-services/automotive#.VuGdXfkrKUk