TRUMP LANDSLIDE AS HARRIS CONCEDES

Vice President Kamala Harris conceded defeat to Donald Trump yesterday evening in a speech delivered to her supporters from Howard University. Harris vowed to “engage in a peaceful transfer of power” in an apparent dig at Trumps 2020 refusal to accept, with the Department of Justice now set to drop criminal charges for the Jan 6th?riots.

Trumps victory appears to have been a clean sweep, winning both the Senate and the popular vote, the first time for a republican since George W Bush in 2004. At 78, Trump will be the oldest leader to be sworn into office in a huge win for the Republicans, stoking the market that Trump will have a mandate to wreak significant changes in American trade. Most analysts expect 60% tariffs on China 10% on most foreign goods. Control of the House of Representatives is still to be determined but the Republicans have already increased their majority in the house, having gained ground in 48 out of 50 states.

Trump is only the second president in US history to regain presidency after losing, being the first president since Grover Cleveland to win two non-consecutive terms. Cleveland was the 22nd president from 1885-89 and the first democrat elected after the Civil War. Trump becomes the first convicted felon to enter the White House in American history. As the world reacts to a second term for Trump, most analysis suggests that he won votes by focusing on the economy and battling inflation more so than Harris’ sole focus on abortion rights. Trumps bold promises and America first policy has seemingly convinced the electorate to make their lives better.

PM Keir Starmer has congratulated Trump but faces a dilemma, as his Foreign Secretary goes back on previous comments calling him a “neo- nazi sympathising sociopath and a profound threat to international order”. David Lammy has since tried to repair relations with the president elect by saying the British government “looks forward to working with you”.

Today sees the Bank of England base rate decision where a 0.25% cut to policy is expected. This would bring levels to the same rate as its counterparts in the US at 4.75%, however the Federal Reserve bank also publishes its policy decision later this evening, where we expect Jerome Powell and his committee to hold on any reaction to the election and keep rates fixed at 4.75%.

After the Dollar made gains vs most major currencies yesterday, the Pound has rallied back briefly, however as more ‘trade tariff’ talk enters the market anticipates further gains for the Greenback are expected. German car manufacturers all lost ground yesterday with VW, BMW & Mercedes all losing between 5-7% share price as investors fear they will be taxed on car sales to their biggest market. US Stocks however open at new highs as Elon Musk's Tesla jumped 14% by lunchtime yesterday.

Finally, in Germany there appears to be more political chaos as Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister over budget disputes, paving the way for a snap election likely to benefit populist party Alternative for Deutschland (afd).

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