The Trump jury deliberates. What’s next?
This week:?Checking President Joe Biden’s crime trend claim … Did the New York judge in Trump’s trial give problematic instructions to the jury? … The explanation behind Alex Jones’ conspiracy theory about the helicopter crash that killed Iran’s president… Oh yeah, Earth still isn’t flat, tell a Facebook friend
Trump N.Y. trial countdown: What happens after the jury’s verdict?
A Manhattan jury is likely to soon deliver a verdict in the case against former President Donald Trump, a decision that will have implications for the 2024 presidential campaign.
Trump was charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records in an alleged scheme to cover up a hush money payment to adult film actor Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election in the Manhattan case. It’s the first and possibly only trial of four to be completed before November’s election.
The trial could end with a jury acquittal, a guilty verdict on all or some counts or a hung jury. It’s hard to predict how long the jury will deliberate — it? could come back within hours or it could take several days or even weeks to decide.?
Here’s our guide to what different verdicts could mean.
If Trump is convicted, when would sentencing occur?
Legal experts said sentencing could come months after a guilty verdict is announced. Any sentence imposed could be stayed pending an appeal.
How would an appeal of a guilty verdict play out?
Trump is all but certain to appeal if he is convicted. That process would probably extend beyond Election Day.?
After a conviction, Trump would have 30 days to state in writing that he will appeal. He would have months more to file his actual appeal, said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, criminal defense attorney and former executive chief of the trial division and chief assistant district attorney at the Manhattan District attorney’s office. Once the appeal is filed, it would still take additional months before the appeals court hears oral arguments and potentially months more before the court renders a decision.?
It would not be unusual for this appeals process to take a year or more.
How rare is a hung jury — that is, a jury that cannot come to a unanimous verdict?
A hung jury is not unheard of, but it would be far from the norm, experts said.
"Convictions are the most common result, statistically, and then acquittals would be the next most common, with hung juries in a distant last place," said Matthew J. Galluzzo, who worked as a Manhattan prosecutor before District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s tenure and is now in private practice. Galluzzo said he’s had more than 30 trials in his career but only one hung jury.
He added, however, that the statistics probably go out the window for a case involving a former president.
If there is a hung jury, how long would it take for the prosecution to decide whether to retry the case?
It could range from a few days to a few weeks, Galluzzo said.
If the prosecution determines that the jury split was 11-1 for conviction, it "might decide to retry the case quickly. If it's a more even split, say 6-6 or 7-5, it could take weeks before they decide what to do," Galluzzo said.
Bill Otis, the former head of the appellate division of the U.S. attorney’s office for Virginia’s Eastern District, said Bragg would very likely retry the case if the jury hangs.
Would a typical defendant facing the charges Trump is facing likely receive a jail sentence if convicted?
An analysis by Norman L. Eisen, who was a counsel for Donald Trump’s first impeachment and trial, calculated that during Bragg’s first year in office, Bragg’s team alone filed 166 felony counts for falsifying business records against 34 people or companies. Eisen found that about 1 in 10 cases in which the most serious charge was falsifying business records in the first degree resulted in some term of imprisonment. But he cautioned that other charges may have tipped the scales toward incarceration in some of those prior sentences.
Judge Juan Merchan’s potential decision on sentencing in the Manhattan case is anyone’s guess. Working in Trump’s favor is that he lacks prior convictions and the charges are a low-level nonviolent felony, legal experts said. Working against Trump is that he has been held in contempt multiple times for breaching a gag order.
"If he had just been silent throughout the trial, I would think there would have been no realistic probability of a jail sentence," Galluzzo said of Trump. "But he has said things publicly that I think really create the possibility of incarceration."
If Trump is convicted, what is the likelihood of facing jail or prison?
The Secret Service, which handles former presidents’ security, has been planning for the possibility of Trump’s incarceration for gag order violations or a postconviction sentence, The New York Times, CBS and ABC have reported.
"For all settings around the world, the U.S. Secret Service studies locations and develops comprehensive and layered protective models that incorporate state of the art technology, protective intelligence and advanced security tactics to safeguard those we protect," Special Agent Joe Routh told PolitiFact. "In order to maintain operational security, we do not comment on specific protective operations."
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Can Trump still run for president if convicted?
Yes. The U.S. Constitution upholds the principle that voters decide who shall represent them, and its qualifications are limited to natural-born citizenship, age (35 by Inauguration Day) and residency in the United States (14 years).
Will Trump lose his voting rights if convicted?
That’s unlikely.?
Trump is a registered voter in Palm Beach County. The Florida Department of State website states that "a felony conviction in another state makes a person ineligible to vote in Florida only if the conviction would make the person ineligible to vote in the state where the person was convicted."?
New York law passed a law in 2021 that restores voting rights for people convicted of felonies upon their release from prison. Voters don’t lose their right to vote unless they are in prison serving a sentence for a felony conviction. People whose prison sentences are stayed pending appeal do not lose their voting rights.?
Read on for the status of other cases against Trump.
— Louis Jacobson and Amy Sherman
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