Trump II: The Arab World at a Strategic Crossroads—A Comprehensive Analysis
Habib Al Badawi
Professor at the Lebanese University - Expert in Japanese Studies & International Relations
The Pendulum of Power: Reimagining Arab-American Relations
The prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House reverberates across the Arab world with profound implications, presenting a complex tapestry of strategic opportunities and diplomatic challenges. As the Middle East navigates through unprecedented turbulence—from the brutal genocide in Gaza to the transformative winds of economic change—the specter of a second Trump presidency demands rigorous examination through multiple prisms: geopolitical realignment, strategic autonomy, economic interdependence, and cultural reconciliation.
The Architecture of Personal Diplomacy
Trump's distinctive diplomatic philosophy—prioritizing personal relationships over institutional mechanisms—represents a paradigm shift in international relations that resonates particularly strongly across the Arab world. His first term demonstrated an unprecedented willingness to circumvent traditional diplomatic channels, epitomized by his landmark selection of Riyadh for his first overseas visit in 2017. This gesture, rich in symbolism and practical significance, marked a deliberate pivot toward direct engagement with Gulf leadership, fundamentally reshaping the dynamics of bilateral relations.
However, this personalized approach to statecraft carries profound implications for regional stability. The appointment of Steve Whitkoff as special envoy to the Middle East—a close Trump confidant—signals an intention to maintain direct control over regional affairs, potentially circumventing established diplomatic infrastructure. While this approach promises accelerated decision-making, it introduces elements of unpredictability that could destabilize long-standing regional equilibriums.
Strategic Recalibration in an Era of Uncertainty
The Arab world's strategic calculations center on the delicate balance of power in a region marked by competing interests and historical tensions. Trump's first term witnessed a dramatic realignment of U.S. Middle East policy, characterized by maximum pressure on Iran and unprecedented support for Israel's strategic objectives. While Gulf states largely endorsed the containment strategy toward Tehran, the broader implications for regional stability remain complex and potentially volatile.
The ongoing savage massacre in Gaza has emerged as a critical test case for American leadership and moral authority in the region. The recent Riyadh conference on the two-state solution, drawing participation from over 90 nations, demonstrated an overwhelming international consensus on the urgent need for resolution. Arab leaders now look to a potential Trump administration with cautious optimism, seeking assurances that Palestinian aspirations will receive fair consideration within the broader framework of regional security.
Economic Integration in a Multipolar World
The economic dimension of U.S.-Arab relations presents a sophisticated matrix of opportunities and challenges under a prospective second Trump presidency. While there exists broad alignment on addressing market distortions and ensuring energy security, Trump's protectionist inclinations during his first term created significant turbulence in Gulf economies.
The implementation of tariffs, particularly those targeting Chinese imports, generated ripple effects throughout global supply chains that are integral to Gulf economic systems. The region's preference for a rules-based international trading order, anchored in a reformed World Trade Organization, stands in potential tension with Trump's unilateral approach to economic statecraft. Arab states must now navigate these crosscurrents while preserving their essential economic interests and pursuing ambitious diversification agendas.
Cultural Bridges in an Age of Division
Perhaps the most nuanced aspect of U.S.-Arab relations under Trump concerns the cultural and religious dimension. The rhetoric of his first presidency, often perceived as amplifying Islamophobia and cultural discord, has left an indelible mark on Arab consciousness. This sensitivity is magnified by the intensifying "culture wars" in Western societies, which have exacerbated religious intolerance and social polarization.
The Arab world seeks concrete assurances that a second Trump administration would prioritize cultural-academic reconciliation and foster genuine mutual understanding. The existing framework of the U.S.-GCC Strategic Partnership offers a sophisticated mechanism for promoting religious tolerance and addressing cross-cultural tensions through structured dialogue and practical cooperation.
Conflict Resolution and Regional Stability
The Arab world's aspiration for conflict resolution aligns conceptually with Trump's pledge to "end all wars," yet the practical implementation of this vision demands nuanced diplomacy and sustained engagement. The current paralysis of international institutions, particularly evident in the UN Security Council's inability to address the Gaza genocide effectively, underscores the urgent need for renewed multilateral diplomacy.
The extraordinary Arab and Muslim summit in Riyadh crystallized regional unity in demanding accountability and sustainable solutions for the Palestinian cause. A second Trump administration would face immediate pressure to facilitate diplomatic breakthroughs in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon while managing Iranian relations through sophisticated diplomatic channels rather than confrontation.
Energy Security and Economic Coordination
The intricate web of energy interests binding the U.S. and GCC nations demands particular attention under a potential second Trump presidency. As major energy producers, both parties share substantial interests in maintaining market stability while navigating the global transition toward renewable energy sources. The existing Trade and Investment Dialogue, complemented by the 2012 Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation, provides established channels for policy coordination, though their effectiveness depends on sustained commitment to multilateral engagement.
Strategic Imperatives for the Future
The Arab world approaches the prospect of "Trump II" with strategic pragmatism, seeking a partnership that balances respect for regional aspirations with advancement of shared interests. Success in this endeavor requires:
Conclusion: Navigating the Path Forward
As the Arab world confronts an unprecedented convergence of challenges, the prospect of a second Trump presidency presents both strategic uncertainties and opportunities for renewed engagement. The region's leaders must skillfully navigate this evolving landscape, leveraging existing partnerships while advocating for justice, stability, and dignity in an increasingly complex global order.
The success of future U.S.-Arab relations will depend largely on the ability to forge a balanced partnership that respects institutional frameworks while accommodating personal diplomacy, advances economic interests while preserving regional stability, and promotes cultural understanding while addressing security challenges. In this context, the Arab world stands ready to engage constructively with a potential second Trump administration, guided by the principles of mutual respect, shared prosperity, and sustainable peace.
This historical moment demands visionary leadership from both sides—leadership that can transcend immediate political considerations to build lasting foundations for cooperation in an era of profound global transformation. The path forward, while challenging, offers opportunities for reimagining Arab-American relations in ways that serve the genuine interests of both peoples while contributing to global stability and prosperity.
?From Cairo (Egypt), Prof. Habib Al Badawi , Lebanese scholar in American studies.