Trump, the hour of Latin America

Twelve of the last 16 years have been a disaster for democracies across the continent in terms of U.S. foreign policy. First, the region went from having one dictatorship, Cuba, to four and a half: Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, and Bolivia, with Mexico on the path to becoming one. Secondly, during the two most recent Democratic administrations, those of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Venezuela consolidated as a dictatorship, Nicaragua became a dictatorship, and Mexico laid the groundwork for a dictatorship with the tacit approval of these governments.

Furthermore, if we delve deeper, we see how Obama opened the door to normalizing relations with Cuba, which only served the Cuban dictatorship, as it ultimately shut the door in the face of the U.S. administration since it was never willing to normalize relations through economic and even limited freedom. Biden, for his part, who was said to be an expert on the region, witnessed Nicaragua becoming a second Cuba without any significant response. Additionally, he made life easier for the criminal dictator Maduro by releasing his wife’s nephews, convicted of drug trafficking, freeing the money-laundering expert Alex Saab, and, as if that weren't enough, lifting restrictions on oil companies to produce and export oil from Venezuela.

The authoritarian axis in the region grew unchecked while the United States, preoccupied with other global issues, ignored the fire spreading in its neighborhood, which grows stronger daily with the support of China, Russia, and Iran. We also cannot overlook the disaster in Mexico and Colombia, where democracy is dying in the former and wavering in the latter due to a populist who came to power only to destroy freedom.

During Donald Trump's four years, the stance against the region's dictatorships was clear, and some actions followed suit. Support for the interim government of Juan Guaidó was perhaps the most notable, along with sanctions against Maduro and his circle of criminals and a strong anti-narcotics stance across the continent, even proposing the bombing of drug traffickers in various countries.

Trump came to power with a clear mandate and a Republican-controlled Senate and House. Furthermore, it seems that Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida, will be nominated as Secretary of State, and his National Security Director, Matt Waltz, is also from this state—the only state where Latin America is a significant issue. The message is clear: the region will be a priority. However, let’s not have illusions; the priorities will still be Ukraine, the Middle East, and China, but the region will emerge from the neglect and disregard for democratic values and threats to them that we suffered during the Democratic administrations.

The essential question is, what will they do, and what can they do? Many options are available, especially in a world where drones can play the role of thousands of soldiers on the ground. This option should not be dismissed as a means to remove the kleptocracy in Venezuela. Actions like the interception of Alex Saab's plane in mid-flight should be on the table. Dictators, their cronies, and their families need to understand they have no safe place in the world if they remain in power.

In the case of Venezuela, there’s another option that should be considered: raising the bounty for Maduro and his mafia to $100 or $150 million, which would require a congressional decision, and letting others handle delivering them. Making this an option would unsettle those mafiosos within Venezuela.

Nicaragua will be different. It is likely they will renegotiate the Central American Free Trade Agreement and remove Nicaragua, possibly adding countries like Ecuador and Uruguay that have expressed interest. Nonetheless, Russia’s intelligence penetration in Nicaragua poses a threat that the U.S. will undoubtedly want to counteract, so no action should be ruled out. Obviously, Venezuela and Cuba will be the priorities, but Ortega is not safe either.

Cuba will be interesting. It is very likely that remittances will be cut off, which would deprive the dictatorship of a significant financial lifeline in a country now much poorer than 60 years ago. Marco Rubio even proposed years ago using satellites to give Cubans free communication access. With the ability to speak freely, organize, and express themselves, Cubans pose a tremendous threat to the kleptocracy once led by Fidel and Raul Castro and now by their descendants.

China, Russia, and Iran are also becoming strategic objectives of U.S. foreign policy towards the region. Mexico must understand that Chinese investments could compromise its economic security, and projects like China’s port in Chancay, Peru, will have high political and commercial costs.

Finally, two issues will be part of the new administration’s agenda towards the region: migration, which has become a tool of disruption by countries like Venezuela and Nicaragua, and narcotics. These countries have evaded accountability on these issues until now, but with the new focus, migration becomes another incentive to address “differences” with these countries.

Narcotics is the other issue. During Trump’s first administration, there was a proposal in Congress to bomb drug traffickers in Mexico, a measure that is not only still on the table but is likely to become part of the strategy in the war on drugs across the continent. Biden’s lenient approach is over, and leaders like Gustavo Petro, who are allied with narcotrafficking either through action or inaction, will see their countries pay a high political and even commercial price. Mexico, a nation on the brink of becoming a narco-state, must also understand that the leniency of the past four years is gone.

There is new hope for the region. The solitude we felt as democrats in the continent’s struggle against 21st-century populism and its extraterritorial sponsors seems to be ending. The important thing is to understand that, in these four years, especially in the first two, we need to lay the foundations to balance the fight, eliminate harmful actors, and create an unstoppable force for freedom and democracy.

There’s no time to lose. Trump knows it, which is why he is already naming his cabinet. We must do the same: be ready to act, without fear and without delay.