Trump hints at revisiting US-Canada border demarcation

BREAKING: Trump has reportedly expressed a desire to “tear up the Great Lakes agreements and conventions between Canada and US that lay out how they share and manage Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario," per NYT

Based on available information, reports have indeed surfaced claiming that President Donald Trump expressed a desire to "tear up the Great Lakes agreements and conventions" between the United States and Canada, specifically those governing the management of Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. This claim originates from a New York Times article dated March 7, 2025, which states that Trump made such remarks during a February 3, 2025, phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The article suggests Trump challenged existing treaties, including water-sharing agreements, as part of broader discussions involving tariffs and border issues. Posts on X and other media outlets, such as Mediaite, have echoed this reporting, indicating it has gained traction in public discourse.

Is This True?

The veracity of the claim hinges on the credibility of the New York Times' sources—four individuals reportedly familiar with the call—and corroborating statements from Canadian officials. The article notes that Trudeau initially viewed Trump’s rhetoric (e.g., calling him Canada’s “governor”) as humorous but later interpreted it as serious intent, especially given Trump’s alleged desire to disrupt long-standing agreements. Additionally, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly echoed this sentiment privately to Canadian officials. However, no official public statement from Trump or his administration has explicitly confirmed this exact phrasing or intent as of March 9, 2025. Without direct evidence like a transcript or White House confirmation, the claim remains based on second-hand accounts and should be treated as plausible but not definitively proven.

Could This Happen, and What Are the Chances?

Whether Trump could dismantle these agreements depends on legal, political, and practical factors:

1. Legal Framework: The Great Lakes are governed by a web of treaties and agreements, notably the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 and the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA), first signed in 1972 and updated in 2012. The Boundary Waters Treaty, enforced by the International Joint Commission (IJC), regulates water levels and flows, while the GLWQA addresses pollution and ecosystem health. As treaties, these have the force of federal law in the U.S. under the Constitution (Article VI). A president cannot unilaterally “tear up” them without Congressional approval or a new executive action that withstands legal challenges. Trump could, however, withdraw from or seek to renegotiate these agreements, as he did with NAFTA (replaced by the USMCA).
2. Political Will: Trump’s administration would need to navigate domestic and international backlash. The Great Lakes region supports 40 million people and a $7 trillion economy across eight U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Bipartisan support for Great Lakes restoration (e.g., the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative) suggests resistance from Congress, especially from Midwestern lawmakers. Canada, too, would fiercely oppose changes, as evidenced by Trudeau’s March 7 statement accusing Trump of aiming to collapse Canada’s economy for annexation.
3. Practicality: Even if Trump pursued this, the process would be slow. Renegotiation or withdrawal requires notice (e.g., the GLWQA allows termination with one year’s notice), and any unilateral action risks trade retaliation or legal disputes via the IJC or international courts. The chances of completely dismantling these agreements are low due to entrenched interests, but partial revisions or heightened tensions are more feasible.

How Could It Happen?

Several pathways exist, though each faces hurdles:

• Executive Action: Trump could issue an executive order signaling intent to withdraw or renegotiate, as he did with environmental policies in his first term. This would spark immediate legal challenges from environmental groups, states, and Canada.
• Congressional Support: Proposing a new law to override treaty obligations would require Senate approval (two-thirds for treaty changes), which seems unlikely given bipartisan Great Lakes support.
• Trade Leverage: Trump could use tariffs (e.g., the 25% levy imposed March 4, 2025, then partially suspended) to pressure Canada into concessions on water management, though this risks escalating into a broader trade war.
• Bilateral Talks: Renegotiation could occur through diplomatic channels, but Canada’s historical resistance to water export schemes (e.g., Trump’s 2024 “faucet” comment about British Columbia) suggests stalemate.

Conclusion

The claim reflects reported sentiments from Trump, but its full accuracy remains unconfirmed without primary evidence. The chances of completely tearing up these agreements are slim due to legal and political constraints, though Trump could push for revisions or disrupt cooperation using economic leverage. Any move would likely unfold over months or years, involving negotiations, lawsuits, and potential economic fallout—hardly an overnight “tear-up.” For now, it’s a provocative idea stirring debate rather than a concrete policy shift. Always worth watching how this evolves, especially if Trump doubles down publicly.