The Trump Fallacy

And what you can do about it...

The Trump Fallacy goes something like this:

“If no argument, opinion – or fact – is 100% true, then any argument, opinion – or fact – is, by definition, wrong. It therefore follows that everyone is free to choose whatever opinions, arguments – or even facts – suit their own world view.”

The problem with this logic, is that this isn’t the whole story.

Firstly, just because nothing is 100% true, it does not mean that all arguments are equally false. The Trump fallacy ignores the concept of relative truth i.e. which argument, opinion – or fact – is more true than another.

Let’s take a simple “fact”:

• The boiling point of water is 100°C

Is even this fact 100% true?

No. The boiling point of water is actually 99.97°C at a pressure of one atmosphere (sea-level). According the the IUAPC – the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry – they prefer to take the measurement at 1 Bar which is marginally less pressure than one atmosphere, so they consider the boiling point of water to be 99.61°C (1).

The problem is that even simple facts rely on a number of assumptions. In the case of boiling water, it depends on the pressure at the place in which it is being boiled: lower pressure results in a lower boiling point, and higher pressure results in a higher boiling point.

Go to an unflooded, underground cave below sea level (higher pressure) and you should find that the boiling point is above 100°C; go to the top of Mount Everest (lower pressure) and you’ll find the boiling point of water falls to 71°C.

So, even “facts” like the boiling point of water are hugely dependent on the assumptions that they rely on – many of which are often left unsaid.

How does Trump and the Alt-Right exploit this fallacy?

They insert new assumptions into any argument they don’t like, to give the impression that it was never true in the first place, rather than respecting the fact that the argument contained implicit assumptions at the time it was made.

For example, if they don’t like the statement that the boiling point of water is 100°C, they just say: it’s actually 71°C at the top of Everest, changing the assumption (atmospheric pressure) as part of the rebuttal – or re-framing – of the argument.

How can you as an individual counter this disregard for truth?

1. Understand that every “fact” contains implicit assumptions

2. Understand that whenever anyone states a “fact” they are making assumptions at the same time

3. You must be able to understand all of the underlying assumptions to accept any “fact”

4. If you don’t understand – or agree with – any of the underlying assumptions you need to seek verification of these assumptions before you can accept any fact – or argument

5. Question any assumptions that you aren’t confident are true

6. Understand that people “twist” assumptions to present – argue for – facts that are convenient to them

7. Be wary of the agendas and personal interests people have when asserting certain “facts”

• People with agendas should have any claims – and their associated assumptions – treated with suspicion
• A higher level of “proof” should be required from these people

8. Know that you are an emotional creature

9. Be wary of anyone who appeals to emotion at the expense of facts

10. Be especially wary of anyone who encourages you to ignore certain facts that don’t correspond to their – or your – world view by asking you to focus on your gut-feel – or just to “trust them”

11. Instead, be more impressed when someone appeals to your emotion/humanity because the facts expose a human right that should be lauded, or a human wrong that should be addressed

12. Watch for “Ad-Hominem” attacks: where someone attacks the person instead of engaging in a logical discussion of the argument that they find “tricky” to counter.

• Note that Trump does this extensively with “Crooked Hillary”, “Little Rocket Man” and more recently on the “corrupt” FBI and DoJ – much easier than engaging in a logical discussion of the facts and their assumptions

13. Be aware of people who insert new assumptions – or change accepted assumptions – to prove someone else wrong

• This is very bad behaviour when they do this and they don’t state clearly what they’re doing – it’s a way of “muddying the waters” or “pulling the wool over your eyes”
• Note that this has been used so extensively, that people have begun to wonder if anything is true at all, and whether they can have any “set of assumptions” that they can accept as being true – like the boiling point of water!

14. Focus on the agreed assumptions before you allow someone to proceed to their argument or fact

15. Don’t let someone “smuggle through” an assumption to get to their argument. This is a way of letting them dominate a discussion to win on their own terms!

16. Treat anyone who tries to “smuggle through” a false assumption with a much higher level of suspicion in the future – these people aren’t interested in seeking truth, they are only interested in winning!

17. Know that any argument – or fact – that is predicated on at least one false assumption is invalid, and has no logical basis.

• Don’t let people trying this to get to their argument; because it is already invalid and you have just been set up to accept it.
• It is much harder to go back to unpick an underlying assumption after an argument has been made than to unpick it before the argument is even put forward.

18. Watch out for the “Straw Man”

• This is where someone moves a discussion onto a point they know they can win (the straw man they can knock down) even though the original discussion was about a different point.
• It gives the impression that they “won”/”were right” even though they are arguing a different point

The Internet has been so overwhelmed by these false discussions and poor logic, that it is getting the the point where no one knows what assumptions, or truths, they can believe-in versus what is a more general subject of debate, conjecture or political belief.

The only way that we will be able to drill down into meaningful debate and conversation – both on the Internet and in real life – is for all people to be on their guard when it comes to the deplorable tactics that some people use to twist the sense of reality so far that “up” sometimes feels like “down”, and “down”: “up” – Orwellian Doublespeak?

The only way for people to “stop the rot” is to build their own base assumptions and work together with each other to establish these prior to launching into – what are increasingly becoming – emotionally charged arguments.

We live in increasingly complex times, and the stakes have never been higher. So, it is important that we all understand how our human frailties can be used against us to let those with an agenda pursue it – usually at our cost.

Hopefully, some of these tools will help you to work out what you think is true rather than just going along with whatever you “hope” is right. Hope did not build this world. Science and logic did. Let’s not chuck the baby out with the bath-water just as we approach a time where we can all fix the problems we’ve too long ignored.

Good luck!

? Michael Parks 2018

23/May/2018

References:

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_point