The Trump Effect 2.0: M&A Markets & Talent Demands, Ghosted by HR

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• Donald Trump's recent victory has sent ripples through the corporate world, sparking optimism for a potential surge in mergers and acquisitions under what's expected to be a more permissive regulatory environment. (Axios )
• Despite this optimism, observers note that Trump's previous term wasn't entirely merger-friendly, as evidenced by the protracted AT&T-Time Warner deal, and his current stance against the U.S. Steel-Nippon merger, along with Vance's support for FTC's Big Tech crackdown, suggests some nuance in his administration's approach. (Axios )
• Trump has not directly commented on the Federal Trade Commission’s rule banning noncompetition agreements that is currently enjoined while legal challenges are decided. However, based on his actions during his prior term, Trump may appoint commissioners to the FTC who would rescind the rule or instruct government lawyers not to defend it in court. (JDSupra )
• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.5-4.75% (their second consecutive cut), but economists are concerned about how President-elect Trump's proposed economic policies, particularly potential tariffs, could affect future rate decisions and possibly lead to higher rates than previously forecast. Fed Chair Powell confirmed he won't resign if asked by Trump, while economists from major banks suggest Trump's policies could slow or derail the Fed's rate-cutting cycle due to inflation concerns. (Forbes )
• Most deregulation options and executive orders that Trump will likely to pursue do not need Congressional action. For instance, conservative appointees might undermine the Basel III Endgame proposal, making bank lending less costly but potentially increasing risks of bank closures. This could impact private equity and private credit firms relying on bank financing.
• Rumblings that one private equity mega-fund will be discontinuing their summer analyst program going forward. Interesting. Wondering if others follow suit.

Resource Center

Green Jobs in a Red Administration: The Surprising Future of Renewable Energy Employment

President Trump will likely expand U.S. oil and gas production, impose tariffs on Chinese-manufactured cleantech and EVs and support nuclear energy infrastructure. A Trump presidency will likely lead to the following:

• Growth of climate-friendly sources of energy.
• Expansion of tax credits for carbon capture and hydrogen

READ MORE

Ghosted by HR, Now What?

You completed three rounds of interviews, a technical case study and a super day. The MDs said that they loved you and you would be a great fit. HR said they’d get back to you within two weeks. No they’ve gone dark.

What happened?

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Recruiting Update

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Changes in federal policy could influence M&A landscapes across multiple sectors. Traditional energy sectors, particularly oil and gas, along with domestic manufacturing, may see increased deal activity due to regulatory shifts and policy support. The financial technology sector, including cryptocurrency and digital payment services, could experience greater transaction volumes amid a more accommodating regulatory environment.

However, renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may face a different trajectory.

Any reduction in federal incentives or support programs could affect investment flows and M&A opportunities in these emerging industries.

The technology sector continues to face consistent regulatory oversight, particularly for large-scale transactions. Enhanced antitrust enforcement and evolving corporate tax policies may impact deal structures and valuations, especially affecting private equity transactions. These factors could influence both deal timing and completion certainty in the broader technology space.

Here's my analysis of how these sector shifts could impact investment banking hiring:

Traditional Investment Banking Teams:

• Energy/Oil & Gas groups likely to expand headcount, particularly at VP and Associate levels to handle increased deal flow
• Manufacturing coverage teams may see selective hiring, especially for professionals with cross-border expertise
• Renewable energy groups might see more modest growth or even headcount freezes if deal activity slows
• Technology banking teams likely to maintain current staffing levels despite regulatory headwinds, given the sector's overall importance
• Healthcare (Life Sciences/Biopharma) will stay hot

Specialized Teams:

• Cryptocurrency/fintech coverage teams could see aggressive hiring, especially for professionals with both traditional banking and digital asset expertise
• Financial Sponsors/PE coverage groups might need to adjust staffing based on deal activity levels

Junior Level Impact:

• Overall analyst, associate, vp hiring likely to remain stable
• Potential shift in allocation of junior bankers toward high-activity sectors
• Greater emphasis on regulatory knowledge in training programs

Geographic Considerations:

• Houston offices may increase hiring for energy coverage
• Silicon Valley/SF offices might maintain rather than expand tech teams
• Regional offices near manufacturing hubs could see increased staffing needs

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