The Trump Comeback

(11:30 p.m. California time, November 5, 2024)

As I am writing this short piece, Trump is now within four votes from capturing the 270 electoral college votes. Harris is trailing at 214. In terms of popular votes, Trump has garnered 68.3 million votes versus Harris' 63.2 million.

This is simply incredible! I don't care if you love or hate Trump but what he has pulled off is unassailable. A man who has faced numerous indictments, been shot at and injured, vilified and ridiculed. A man who lost an election in 2020 to Joe Biden, the Democrat.

If Reagan was the "Teflon" president, Trump is the "super Teflon" one. I am stating facts, though I admit I might come across as admiring Trump. Yet, under the constraints the man has been under (law suits, indictments, vilification, assassination attempts, the physical constraints of full-time 24/7 inter-state campaigning), what Trump has been able to endure, is a testament to this 79-year old man's grit.

Globally, however, what worries me is that America presently stands as a divided nation. In 1052, Christendom faced a "schism" when the Orthodox and Catholic churches divorced. America is not facing a divorce (civil war, cessation, etc.), but the 50-states' people's marriage has been a messy one, which needs family counseling!

How Trump will begin to fix things, the economy will be the easier one. It is the emotional schism and one side's utter loss (the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance) will be very challenging for the 50% of the US electorate that did not vote for Trump. As you have concluded by now, America has two Tribes:

1. The Trumpists; and
2. The anti-Trumpists (don't confuse them with the Democrats).

And the anti-Trumpist tribe lost and lost significantly.

I will try to shine some light over the vast geopolitical, social and financial landscape after this acrimonious and bloody election. As for "bloody", I mean it both literally and figuratively (people died).

1. Interest Rates. The Fed will have to lower rates as Trump wants cost of borrowing to be lowered. Powell will be under tremendous pressure to lower the Fed Funds rates, at least by 50 basis points before the year-end. (Trump will take office in the third week of January 2025). Obviously, the greenback will decline against the Euro and Yen. But it will make American goods cheaper to export. And that is what Trump wants. To sell American stuff and buy less foreign stuff.
2. Debt. So long as the greenback is the world's reserve currency and foreigners will want to keep their holdings in US assets (bonds, equities and real estate) and so long as the BRICS don't have the Chinese renminbi as a reserve currency, America will continue to run deficits and borrow money by printing fiat money. The so called, "rinse, repeat" cycle. Some people call it the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
3. Wall Street. The Street will love a Trump victory and celebrate it. Remember, you had Blackstone's Stephen Schwarzmann supporting Trump.
4. Elon Musk. He will do exceedingly well. He will be what the Rothschilds were to the European royalty. Of course, Trump will have to oblige accordingly. Starlink and SpaceX will do very, very well.
5. EVs. This is a tough one. Trump doesn't like EVs and doesn't believe in energy sources apart form fossil fuels.
6. China. He will extract concessions from China but will also raise tariffs but to the extent that the Chinese get to have a freer hand in Taiwan.
7. Ukraine. Trump has no time for war. He will force a Ukrainian ceasefire because he rightly recognizes that the war is not in Ukraine's favor. The Russians are advancing daily. Ukraine will have to postpone its dreams of NATO and EU and will have to live with some 25% of its territories ceded to Russia or under Russian control. Zelensky has lost.
8. EU. The Europeans have lost. First they lost their cheap Russian gas, which by the way, is another reason the German firms are losing, letting go of workers and closing plants. Their Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) has energy as a big component. America has replaced Russia as Europe's/Germany's gas supplies and at higher prices.
9. NATO. The NATO nations will have to increase their defense budgets beyond 2% and soften up their anti-Russian tones. Trump is inherently an American nationalist. All he cares about is America the way he sees it. Tight borders, cheaper goods and services, lower taxes and no foreign entanglements. Love him or hate him, but Trump is simply not into wars. He looks tough but he is essentially a businessman who cares about his own neighborhood, like any other New York City landlord.
10. Russia. Trump will force Russia to a ceasefire by getting Putin to stop his war in Ukraine in consideration for recognizing Russia's cordon sanitaire in Eastern Ukraine.
11. Iran/Israel/Palestine. Trump will NOT be entangled into a war with Iran and will brow beat Bibi Netanyahu into an uneasy ceasefire in Qazza, Lebanon and cessation of hostilities against Iran. Given the weakening economic situation of Israel, an exhausted military, an angry Israeli public and more importantly, despondent families still not united with their loved ones taken hostage on October 7, 2024, Bibi will have to watch it with Trump. Trump simply has no time for the MidEast, Ukraine, NATO, Russia. He simply doesn't. As for Iran, Trump may or may not engage in a detente, provided the Iranians don't go for the nuclear weaponization. Remember, Iran has already mastered the nuclear science. For them to develop a bomb or two is simply a decision. Yet they will not make that decision. As for Palestine, Trump does not really have the time, nor the interest to engage in a diligent mapping out a homeland for the Palestinians. It will fall to the next American president. (Although in my humble view, within some 20-years or less, there will be a South Africa/Zimbabwe solution to Israel's white South Africa and white Rhodesia predicament, should efforts towards a viable two-state solution continue their tortuous death!)
12. Saudi Arabia/UAE/Qatar/Kuwait/The Persian Gulf. Trump appreciates the monies held by these royalties. He will want to have big pieces of pie saved for America, Inc. for Saudi mega projects. MbS will only be happy to oblige.
13. America. Well, this is what Trump is interested in and what will take his time. Trump MUST now heal America in a magnanimous manner. With liberality of character, passion, forgiveness and compassion. Let bygones be bygones. That will be exceedingly hard, given the vitriol created and in no small measure by the dominant US media on both the right and the left. America is deeply wounded. Had it been 150-years ago, there would have been a Civil War. I am quite serious. America will need time to heal but it can be done. But the quantum of challenge is something that is gargantuan. Truly! If Trump fails to force one half of America to kiss the other half and in the process, make up, then Trump and indeed America will have only succeeded in a Pyrrhic victory and nothing else. That would be the kiss of death for our country, should Trump fail.
14. The Democrats. They are pretty much like the UK's Tories. They will have to go back to school and re-think why and how they lost touch with America's middle class masses, the so-called "deplorables" and "garbage". They have lost their mojo, the Dems and must either find their Mojo or a build a new one!
15. After Tump. I have a view that JD Vance will be taking up the Trump Torch. This 47th administration has learned very hard lessons and will INSTITUTIONALIZE Trumpism. The question is will Trumpism end up like Turkey's Ataturkism or Argentina's Peronism. America will never be the democracy it was. It will be a new democracy under a "new management".

Good night all.

Nick