Trump is Already Changing the World Order. Can Europe Stop Him in Munich?

Biden missed his chance at history. In trying to preserve 20th century liberal international order, he ceded its future to Trump and MAGA. Now it’s up to Europe to play along or resist.

By Kevin Baron

MUNICH, Germany – Imagine if Joe Biden had Donald Trump’s chutzpah to change the entire international world order? Because that’s what’s about to happen.

In a little-noticed move only three weeks into office, President Trump quietly ordered his administration to conduct a complete review of the United States’ participation in the United Nations and all international government organizations. Make no mistake, that’s a Trump order meant to destroy the UN, not reform it.?

As world leaders meet for the annual Munich Security Conference this weekend, many will face the undesirable choice of whether to stand up and fight Trump’s blitzkrieg demands for big changes from Ukraine to NATO, or bend the knee. Already, signs are pointing to dangerous times ahead.?

The White House buried Trump’s directive in Section 3, Paragraph B of the same executive order issued last week that pulled the U.S. out of the World Health Organization. But the WHO is a small fish. The target is much bigger. For decades, many core conservatives have wanted to yank the United States out of the UN and all international organizations, which they claim exercise unconstitutional and undemocratic foreign control over Americans. Trump’s order is effectively a dragnet to do just that. Officially, it directs Secretary of State Marco Rubio to review everything and “provide recommendations as to whether the United States should withdraw from any such organizations, conventions, or treaties” within six months.?

In other words, Trump already has quietly started a process that by summer’s end could change the international world order forever.?

Just imagine, for a minute, what Biden could have done if he was half as bold. Biden entered office beloved in international policy circles and backed by voters seeking a more empathetic world. Several countries had endured a period of anti-establishment movements in which citizens made clear to the powerful elites that the global system was not working as promised. The liberal international order, and its promise of globalization, felt unfair, outdated, and overdue for a complete overhaul. The archaic United Nations favoring 1945 superpowers seemed especially feckless in stopping conflict or emboldening dictators, and by design dismisses the Global South.?

Biden could have changed everything. He could have exited into history alongside Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan as a grand American statesman whose policies reshaped the international order. He could have summoned world leaders to a historic conference and together emerged with a new United Nations for the 21st century, or some other institutional agreement designed to work for the betterment of all global citizens. He could have done it in a way that preserved the conflict-avoiding international cooperation born out of World War II, uplifted billions of under-represented humans of the Global South, and promoted America’s security, economic, and moral leadership interests. And he could have done it in a way that boxed in China and Russia for 100 years, or at least the lifetimes of their dictators.?

At least, he could have tried. In 2021, I asked Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, if the new president had plans to gather world leaders at some retreat and reimagine the international system, as scholars long had hoped. If globalism had in fact failed, maybe Biden could lead us into a new era. Sullivan looked perplexed.?

“We have entered a phase, I believe, in foreign policy and international relations where it’s no longer the formal Greek structure of the Parthenon of the United Nations, the IMF, and the World Bank, and so forth. We now have a more complex mix of structures, and that’s a good thing, it suits the United States and our particular skill set quite well,” he said. Biden was focused on things like “elevating the Quad to leader level, creating AUKUS, doing the Democracy Summit,” and building a list of other issue-specific coalitions.

Biden, he said, was focused on determining that democracies and not autocracies “would define the terms of the future.” The Quad is an important creation, but Biden’s team ultimately could not convene an actual “Summit of Democracies,” largely because liberals paralyzed over the guest list. All they managed were a few little-noticed virtual meetings. Democracy dies by committee, apparently.

In the meantime, Americans began lining up to vote for autocracy – or America’s closest version of it, yet. Biden left office as one of the most unpopular presidents in modern times. One reason was his stubborn loyalty to the old rules of world order and state sovereignty – particularly Israel’s, while Benjamin Netanyahu rained war crimes down on Gaza. Biden’s response came off as stale, tone deaf, and dangerous. His reputation as a global statesman was forever tarnished, as voters punished him for siding with the system instead of the human victims of it.

Americans instead voted for Trump’s outright promise to break the rules of such politicians and use what he often says is “common sense.” That has opened the door for conservatives to finally try to sink the old network of international organizations they called “globalist.” It’s a term referring to world domination, which is exactly what MAGA leaders do not want.?

Their next target is NATO.

Already, Trump has divided the United States from NATO. Trump dropped diplomatic jaws around the world on Wednesday by announcing he had told Russia’s Vladimir Putin in a phone call that Russia likely could, in effect, keep seized Ukrainian land and that Ukraine was unlikely to be admitted into NATO. Trump called Putin before informing Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and before any peace negotiations. In Brussels, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte the U.S. remains committed to NATO, but that returning to Ukraine’s original borders is an “unrealistic objective” and “illusionary goal.”?

In other words, European leaders have heard Trump and Hegseth promised to defend Europe while preparing to give a slice of it away to the dictator next door. Until Wednesday, many seemed ready to bend the knee to Trump once again, at least performatively, to keep America close. But by the end of the day, many clapped back at the new Trump-Putin alliance against its territory.?

“Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity are unconditional,” said Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister who recently became top EU’s defense official, issuing an extraordinary statement of support with the UK, France, Germany, Poland, and Spain.

By Thursday evening, European ministers at Munich immediately were pressed to rebuff? Trump’s pressure tactics while reassuring that NATO – including the United States – remained committed to its mission.?

Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Bra?e, herself a former NATO official, said she just returned from a Washington visit more reassured that the United States remained a strong partner. “Oh yes, and we got the reconfirmation of that everywhere,” in meetings in Congress. “The messages of a strong NATO is there…full trust in NATO is there.” She also said Ukraine’s NATO membership is not dead, only delayed.?

Tórdís Kolbrún R. Gylfadóttir, Iceland’s former foreign minister, was less diplomatic. “I do worry. …There’s not many things in this world that are black and white, but a full scale invasion is one of those things,” she said. “When has Russia shown that they value peace and human life? …I listened to Kaja Kallas today and I agree with every word she said.”

Trump’s team is moving as fast as it can. Global security leaders gathering in Munich usually prefer to demonstrate a show of unity against foreign adversaries, but the infighting Americans have injected into this closed-door club is more than a distraction. It’s meant to be a disruption. This week, Munich’s elite will have to decide quickly whether to play ball with Trump 2.0, or to take a stand against him and these stunning security realignments. And Trump’s and Hegseth may leave little choice. By the looks of it, Europe is circling its wagons for a fight.?

“Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO,” said British Defense Minister John Healey at NATO on Wednesday. “That is a process that will take some time.”?