Troughs of Disillusionment

tl;dr: It’s easy to be disillusioned by crypto, capitalism, and democracy right now. Dealing with disillusionment is not so easy.

I am a bit of a skeptic about the value provided by the large analyst firms like Gartner and Forrester.

While it is definitely greater than zero, I am not convinced that it is as high as the prices they charge.

Part of my skepticism, however, probably stems from my perception that enterprise buyers of software use these reports as a crutch or a shield to play the political game of “well, Gartner says that [company X] is good, so it’s probably a right fit for us.”

Still, there’s no question that a ratings/review service to get the “wisdom of the crowds” can be a valuable tool, but that needs to come along with trust and transparency, the latter of which these firms tend to lack.

One day, we’ll have trusted, token-curated registries of software, with verifiable claims from actual users in all types of industries. Today, this is the best we have.

Now that I’ve spent all of this time beating on the analyst firms (not like they care), I will say that there are times when they do a great job in analyzing the market.

The mack daddy of them all is probably the “Gartner Hype Cycle.”

The Hype Cycle

The hype cycle refers to the process that an emerging technology goes through on its path to mainstream adoption.

Another, less cited, display of this is from Carlota Perez’s book, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital.

Either way, however they show the same story.

New stuff comes on the scene. People get really pumped up about it. Then they get too pumped up about it and reality sets in. Then everyone gets depressed and the market shows very low activity for a while.

Then, a re-emergence begins.

It’s like the Hero’s Journey, but for tech.

Disillusionment vs. Despair

For me, it’s important to distinguish between disillusionment and despair, or disbelief.

The former allows for a broader realistic assessment to settle in. The other is a total disavowal.

I was reconnecting with a friend as part of the coronavirus reconnection efforts that we’ve all done and she asked for an explanation of blockchain.

I did my best and it seemed to work, but as I did, I felt a type of fatigue inside me.

I recognized, “I’m just tired of explaining this to people.”

And it’s not like “oh, blockchain is so easy to understand, why doesn’t everyone get it?”

It was more that I could empathize with one of Satoshi’s most famous quotes:

 “If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.“

Satoshi Nakamoto

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6269#msg6269

And it wasn’t really about “convincing,” it was more about “I’m frustrated that it’s taking so long to have legit mainstream applications.”

I realized that I, like many others, are still in the post-2017 trough and, as Aleks at Blockchain Capital aid to me,

“I think everyone’s time horizons have been lengthened.”

Sean Li, CEO of Magic, shared a similar sentiment.

“It’s taking a lot longer, true. But there’s still a fundamental premise here….that [public] blockchains are the necessary foundation for the next generation of the Internet.”

On that, I am unwavering.

So, disillusioned a bit? Yes.

Despair? No.

The word of the year for me anyway is “Patience.”

Bitcoin (and crypto) is a path to Zen.

But I think that’s only type of disillusionment.

Other Troughs

Today, most people don’t give a damn about crypto, bitcoin, blockchain or any trough of disillusionment for that tech, because they are mired in far greater troughs of disillusionment.

Disillusionment with government, the press, banks, NGOs, and so many others is rampant.

It makes me wonder if the stock market, or the unemployment charts, or the Fed balance sheets will fit into the Hype cycle model in some way?

We know that, until early March, we were on the “longest bull run in history” and “full employment.”

Expectations were robust (inflated?) and now, well, we know the story.

Meanwhile, the money supply is shooting up and up. Going to a peak?

Certainly climbing at a rate that makes some people ask questions about what is going on.

Living in the Trough

We’ve all been in troughs of disillusionment. It’s part of the human condition, even if it’s not fun.

The mantra I rely on for these times (and it’s far easier said than done) is something I borrowed from the Navy Seals.

“Embrace the Suck”

We all have a choice. Be upset about the situation or lean in and accept it. Recognize that this is part of the process.

I hate the fact that crypto isn’t ready for prime time. The world needs it now more than ever to preserve freedoms, rights, and privacy as well as to give more people agency over their own futures.

I hate the fact that the Fed is printing money at ridiculous rates that will enrich the few at the expense of the money (Cantillon effect) and I hate the ceaseless bickering that our “leaders” have in trying to steer us on a course for safety.

I’m definitely disillusioned about crypto, capitalism, and democracy.

But, in times like this, I have to be careful to not throw the proverbial baby out with the bathwater.

Crypto has merit. Capitalism has merit. Democracy has merit.

Embracing the suck, acknowledging the frustrations and fatigue, and leaning in.

As someone once said to me, “the only way out…is through.”