Is There Trouble in Netflix Paradise?

Netflix fascinates me these days for so many reasons.

Back in the day, for those of us old enough to remember, Netflix was the Blockbuster killer. It’s important to remember that they beat Blockbuster at their own game. It wasn’t streaming that killed the beast (to mash up a great movie line) but mail.?

The game was rental. Blockbuster was tied to stores, while Netflix hit the USPS.? There were no unique shows, no studio pretensions, and no billions of dollars to spend on content (whether good, bad, or worse). Nope. Just a new channel of delivery and ease of engagement.

Then came streaming, and the business that had already opened a new channel of distribution found it easy to open another. Get the lesson?

Netflix crushed it—again because they had seemingly endless deep pockets and a big appetite to own all premium content watching via streaming while whatever competition existed was either asleep at the switch or focused on UGC (User Generated Content). (Remember when that was going to put all other content sources out of business? Gotta love analysts…)

Then, Netflix grew—both in size and cultural importance. They turned us into Binge Watchers by releasing a whole series at one time, creating a FOMO social onslaught, while others were locked into the old tried and true paradigm of episodic releases. And they feed the machine by ordering up show after show and movie after movie while expanding worldwide and growing a seemingly endless customer base which drove outsized valuations, more money, and even more content.??

The cultural impact was huge. To satiate the endless hunger of their subscription base, Netflix bought shows in every language. It exposed us all, regardless of location, to the productions of other countries, thanks to subtitles and voiceovers in every language imaginable.

The upshot is that we were obsessed with the Queen on The Crown. We added Kings on The Queens Gambit. House of Cards (their Sopranos, as it were) was not about Vegas; instead, a different and more dangerous form of gambling began it all. Squid Games gave us new respect for tracksuits. Breaking Bad presented a new view of Math (or was it Meth?). Ozarks was more than a travelogue. Orange is the New Black wasn’t about Paris Couture. And...we learned Spanish from Money Heist and Hebrew and Arabic from Fauda—how educational!

Those are only a handful of the shows that entered popular culture during Netflix’s run, but there was trouble in paradise. (No, that wasn’t a movie title.) It’s what was happening to the platform as the analysts and pundits turned like the worms they are.?

The outsized predictions for future subscription growth…fueled by covid didn't materialize. As much, BTW, as they didn’t appear for most businesses where that same class of useless predictors projected covid growth on straight progression.?

It gets worse. Churn, which has been ever-present and ignored, started to look worse. Yet, some (myself included) had warned for years that Binge dropping wasn’t a digital strategy. It is poor marketing that limits FOMO. It limited the length of the social media arc and bottom line, creating an in and out of subscription mentality as people wait for the shows they like, watch them, and then bail. People often return at a promotional rate for the next drop—thus successfully avoiding paying for all the crap.??

The final blow: The proliferation of Streaming options started to cause decision overload. As their prices increased, creating a “Cut the cord or get strangled by the threads” dynamic and as advertising (see my prediction years ago) became a reality, the very notion of Streaming (foolishly) came into question by the same analysts and idiots who had projected infinite growth.?

All of which brings me to my latest 100% unscientific (yet very projectable for insight) survey.?

I was curious whether or not any of your favorite Netflix shows have been canceled.

Now, let’s be clear: shows that we loved but that didn’t meet the metrics of the business gods have been canceled since the beginning of TV time.?

Most notably, Star Trek, which still runs globally, across platforms, in syndication, pirated sharing, and streaming, only ran for 3 seasons. Yet it went on to movie franchise fame, spin-off success, and...merchandising madness.

So when 1899, seemingly beloved, got the ax…I felt it was time to point out what had happened. Why would the streaming platform that gunks up countless servers with garbage content kill one of its hits? It was clear. 1899 had only a 32% completion rate—despite its 79.27 million hours of watching and that it was a top 10 show.?

Bottom line? You can’t sell 32% completion rates to premium advertisers. And there is the sea change.?

The company that had never met content it wouldn’t feature needed to begin to think profit.

You all know the caveats…YADDA YADDA…not this/not that, but still insightful because of your comments, you answered my always simple and clear question:

“I’m curious…has Netflix cut one of your favorites in the last year? If yes, comment below which show:

• 61%—Said yes
• 39%—Said no

More than 60% of us have seen our very best go-to programs killed. Yet, what amazed me wasn’t the list of shows. (Yes, some shared about shows like The Office rather than comments about Netflix, the platform, and streaming in general.)

• “Netflix can’t cut any of my shows or my service at all; I don’t have Netflix service. I pretty much gave up TV about 20 years ago.” —LN
• “I don’t have Netflix, but it can be disappointing…I try not to binge anything.” —EN
• “The decision is very brave.”—MS
• “Don’t care for binge-watching. I’ll watch when I watch and don’t subscribe to pop culture.” —RGS
• “Unsubscribed after they canceled 1899. That was the last straw.” —WHM

Then there was Alex L., who put it all into perspective: “One group loves completion rates more than anyone else…..advertisers!” And he knows!!!

There you have it, folks. More comments about dissatisfaction than I had anticipated. Like I said…TROUBLE IN PARADISE!

What do you think?