Triggering Article 50: 2 Years That Will(Should) Shape(d) the Century?
(It's likely that the Prime Minister May will decide to trigger Article 50 this week after sending back the Bill to the Lords. There is lot's of talk and speculation about what will happen, what we can expect, what we can hope to achieve and or what we will be the cost of Brexit as in a departure fee?)
This article was started 2 years ago, many a temper has been left to simmer on the verge of boiling over; what have we learnt? Are we still no further down the line than we were when A.50 was triggered? Why? Division has become derision? Politicians lack of backbone left the public searing with anger? The European elections agreed to to be a de facto referendum over Brexit?
Two new political parties formed; the phoenix of Nigel Farage reborn into the Brexit Party leading in the polls with no manifesto; Change UK wanting to remain? Where is the Change in that?
The strategy of frustrate the process to the point of failure; did a civil servant who lead the negotiation (by some accounts) cost Theresa May her premiership? or was it the Withdrawal Agreement V4 the final nail driven in by her own party?
Instead of arguing about what not to do, is it not time for the executive to look for solutions?
The key elements for a new deal could be based around the following:
Security cooperation; rights of citizens, a free trade agreement modelled on Canada+++, an undertaking to pay a divorce settlement upon delivery of a deal that covers the implementation of a free trade deal after a two year implementation period with no backstop.
The situation now is toxic; the withdrawal agreement is a poison chalice; what we need is the holy grail; who will be our Indiana Jones? Or is it really Python?
The grand national style election campaign of a new leader is largely two hopers jumping on a bandwagon trying to get a foot in the door of No.10 Downing Street. There is a clear choice of a leader who is prepared to leave with no deal and a leader who is not?
Can a close trading partnership work with a smooth transition or do the EU think that the lack of a threat of no deal is the Achilles heal of the UK? Giving the UK a good deal is an existential threat to the political project that the bureaucrats and technocrats can ill afford; why? A queue of countries wishing to follow suit, a very real possibility?
During a battle when all is still fluid; the strategic thinker who keeps his/her/their head when all else are losing theirs is the leader that will prevail; what is the objective? The freedom to control borders, laws, and the ability to make trade deals independent from the EU? What will deliver that original premise? The simplest solution is invariably the best.
Fear of no deal is a wise person who understands the perils of the situation; however it's a foolish person who doesn't prepare for it just in case; if you fail to plan you plan to fail.