Trends vs. fads: Identifying scalable opportunities in food & beverage

If you want to see what’s new and unique in food and beverage today, all you need to do is scroll on your phone. However, “new” and “unique” certainly do not always equate to market potential.?

Understanding the cultural factors that will either propel trends into realized business opportunities or cause them to fade away takes more than a quick Google search, AI-powered trend forecast or gut feeling.??

Misguided trends and foresight should not be the cost of doing business. That’s why we believe that food and beverage companies urgently need to change their perspective on the trend-gathering and interpretation process. It’s time to stop chasing the new and unusual and get back to thinking critically — yet imaginatively — about what might take off and why.?

What is a trend??

Before we go any further, let’s clarify what qualifies as a bona fide trend in the food and beverage industry:??

• Alignment with Cultural Demand Spaces: Tapping into established consumer needs such as convenience, value, health and wellness, sustainability or transparency

• Higher-Order Principles: Innovations that transcend categories, such as?nutrient-density, fresh/less-processed and artisanal production

• Disruptive Attributes: Products that challenge or redefine established norms, like the rise of functional ingredients for cognitive health
• Cultural Resonance: Adoption by key change agents — chefs, influencers or early adopters — who amplify its reach
• Scalable Market Potential: Demonstrating long-term growth potential across multiple sales channels

Trend identification cannot be distilled to a checklist of factors, though. Instead, our experts consider a multitude of factors in distinguishing an emerging trend from a passing fad:??

• Macro forces: Local, regional and global marketplace dynamics??

• Cross-industry insights: How trends in adjacent industries (e.g., fashion, technology) ripple into food and beverage?

• Consumer behaviors: The evolution of how people discover, source and shop for products across physical and digital landscapes?

• Attributes of tomorrow: Future product benefits, behaviors and occasions likely to disrupt categories?

• Cultural cues: How evolving societal values align with specific product attributes??

• Emerging consumer groups: Anticipating the needs and behaviors of future audiences to ensure long-term relevance.?

Fundamentally, innovations are about scaling trends — or cultural signals — in the marketplace. The challenge, however, is identifying which trends are the most scalable for sustainable growth and which are fads that, at best, may yield temporary spikes in revenue.?Some trends get stuck in consumer niches so small that no one notices — until some variable changes and it gets unstuck (like creatine). Some have persisted for decades on a small scale, waiting for the stars to align (like collagen). And many “innovations” are actually independently redundant creations (see 80% of keto-friendly products). The tipping point often hinges on decoding cultural resonance and behavioral adoption.?

Identifying emerging markers of demand?

In truly early stages, there simply isn't enough data to understand whether early movers have created sticky businesses that will survive. That’s why we prefer to leverage cultural analysis and behavioral science theory while also identifying tiny, real-world cultural signals with the potential for scalable, behavioral uptake by real people:?

• Identifying meaningful early indicators through cultural analysis?
• Differentiating between short-term fads and more impactful long-term trends?
• Understanding barriers to the knowledge and sensory experience that can hinder results?
• Identifying products that solve high-stakes trade-offs for a committed subpopulation or simply offer modern approaches to meeting existing desires?
• Not shying away from niche consumer audiences

The way forward?

For true long-term success, this kind of trends work should not transpire in isolated consumer insights and brand management teams. Instead, we’d argue it should take place in thoroughly cross-functional vetting committees where the entire organization’s competencies can be leveraged as filters and evaluated through a cultural lens. When trends are identified and validated without cross-functional input, you often wind up with overly idealistic ideas that simply are not actionable in the larger company.?

Implications?

• Trend identification cannot simply be fuzzy art or glorified intuition; it should always be rooted in culture??

• Trends need to be defined from a business perspective before trendspotting activities are funded?

• A willingness for C-level executives to learn the external, early-stage innovation environment is critical to making the exercise productive?

• Good trend identification and foresight doesn’t happen in organizational isolation, but rather in a cross-functional vetting process that ensures that only trends with potential for organizational uptake and monetization are advanced into any innovation funnel for product development?

Trend identification is not about chasing the “new.” It’s about understanding the cultural and consumer forces that drive lasting change. If your organization is ready to become an early mover and unlock a new approach to trends, let’s talk. Our analysts and food culture experts have decades of experience marrying the art and science of not just trend-spotting, but real-world application.??

Reach out to Shelley Balanko to set up an introductory conversation: [email protected].?