Trends in the transportation industry

Introduction

Transportation is the movement of passengers and freight from one location to another. The modes of transport may occur via land, sea, air, or space. It may involve multiple combinations of these modes of transport to get the person / freight to the final destination. The transportation industry is the bedrock upon which supply chains exist. This article seeks to share some thoughts about trends occurring in the transportation industry, which will affect passengers, freight, and, of course, the companies providing the infrastructure, vehicles, and operations for the transportation industry.

 # Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous vehicles are already plying the roads in some countries. The race is on to develop autonomous vehicles operating in three modes – land, air, and sea. Autonomous cars seem to be a panacea for a whole range of issues, from enhanced mobility for senior citizens to reducing traffic jams. Autonomous trucks are making test runs in preparations for commercial operations. 

In a strange turn of events, it is internet giants such as Google, Uber, and Lyft, which have grabbed the limelight for autonomous vehicles rather than the car manufacturers themselves. Autonomous vehicle companies are going the extra mile to perfect their systems and minimize risk to humans. Some are even partnering with game designers and gamers. Autonomous cars will bring about a whole slew of conundrums for the insurance industry, legal industry, infrastructure planners, and labor unions. 

 # Intelligent Roads

With the rise of intelligent cars, why should roads be left behind? Streets already have an assortment of devices to monitor traffic and enforce traffic violations. At some point in time, roads will be part of a network that will communicate data about road conditions during inclement weather to vehicles – human-driven and autonomous. This is made possible by utilizing various kinds of sensors that collect information about road friction, road temperature, and snow thickness. Intelligent roads are already being tested on the arctic roads in Northern Scandinavia.

 # Green | Electric Cars & Trucks

The count of vehicles with electric motors, range extenders, or plug-in hybrid systems on roads has gone from near-zero at the start of the decade to more than 5.6 million in 2019. There has been a jump of 64% over 2018. There are estimated to be upwards of 1.4 billion motor vehicles on the world’s roads, so the Green Car numbers seem insignificant. Yet the rate of growth of electric cars will far outpace the growth of conventional vehicles. Consumer research has shown that “ethical value” is of significance for present-day luxury vehicle purchases. Hence Bentley, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, BMW, Volvo, Jaguar-Land Rover are all jumping on the bandwagon. The writing on the wall is clear – the future is in electric cars. 

Commercial trucks are also going green. Tesla has unveiled an electric semi-truck, which has a range of 800 km on a single charge. Amazon intends buying 100,000 electric delivery vans from startup Rivian. All this means that petrol (gas) stations will gradually transition to charging stations. 

 # Trains are rivaling Planes 

There are about two dozen countries across the globe that have invested in High-speed Rail networks running at speeds more than 200 km/hr. In many nations, these high-speed trains have begun rivaling planes in terms of total travel time (including wait times) as well price. Magnetic levitation trains that ply shorter routes can travel faster than 400 km/hr, and engineers are researching trains that can run 600 km/hr. The ‘Hyperloop’ mode of transportation between San Francisco and Los Angeles is expected to cover the 550 km distance in 35 minutes. Passengers and freight will travel in capsules reaching speeds of 1200 km/hr. An even more ambitious plan is to link the UAE and Mumbai with an undersea link. Passengers and freight will cover the 2000 km distance in 2 hours.

 # Flying Cars

A Flying Car is a dual-mode personal transport device meaning that it can be driven like a car on roads and also take off like a plane does if it has access to a runway. Once the staple of sci-fi movies or the gaming industry, it is getting closer to reality. Companies such as Terrafugia and PAL-V, have already demonstrated prototypes of flying cars. Uber has also unveiled its plans with the launch of Uber Air. They are designing the air-cars initially to be operated by a pilot but will make them autonomous. Uber has upped the ante by not only developing the cars but also creating the infrastructure (sky ports), which will be used for the vehicles to take off. They are also working with NASA to define traffic rules in the air. Massive Online Open Course (MOOCs) companies such as Udacity have already started offering a course on flying cars. 

 # Infrastructure

In most developing countries, the growth of roads has not kept pace with the growth of cars. The building of infrastructure networks will provide a massive boost to companies offering the infrastructure, vehicles, and operations for the transportation industry. One such ambitious plan is China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which will benefit the transportation companies not only in Asia but across the world. Other projects which are on the drawing board are the Saudi–Egypt Causeway, Bridge of the Horns (between Djibouti and Yemen), the Sunda Strait Bridge (between the Indonesia islands of Java and Sumatra), and the Strait of Messina Bridge (between the Italian mainland and Sicily). These projects have the potential to give rise to new transportation networks and supply chains, thereby benefitting regional economies. 

 # Internet-enabled mobility services 

Existing and emerging technologies such as wireless, GPS, and smartphones have given rise to innovative apps that facilitate mobility. The consumer thus has a choice beyond a personal vehicle, a taxi, or mass transit systems. The most common mobility apps can be classified as ‘Ridehailing’ (Uber, Lyft Careem), ‘Ridesharing’ aka Carpooling (Waze Carpool), ‘Carsharing’ (Zipcar or car2go), ‘Bikesharing’ (UberBike, OFO), ‘Micro-transit’ (Chariot, Via) and ‘Mobility as a service’ (Transloc, Moovel). 

 # Smart & Connected Transport Ecosystem

The proliferation of sensors (in cars and on roads), 5G, Wi-Fi, autonomous vehicles, smart traffic lights, intelligent highways, IoT, and New CV2X (cellular vehicle-to-everything) technologies like LTE-V2X will give rise to a smart digital transportation ecosystem. Vehicles may share data about road conditions, traffic jams, weather, and accidents with the ecosystem and each other to automatically optimize driving times for passengers and freight. In 2018, there were 1.35 million traffic deaths. A smart connected ecosystem should make safety one of the most important benefits. While autonomous cars will be frowned upon in the present times, there may come a time in the future where human-driven cars may be seen as a liability. 

 # Demographics

Estimates suggest that currently, about 50% of the world’s population is squeezed into cities, which account for about 2% of the world’s land area. This number is expected to go up to 70% by 2050. Most governments will have no option but to ramp up work on building urban public transport infrastructure. It will be extremely challenging for urban planners but presents an opportunity for the transportation industry.

 # Cutting Edge Technologies

Augmented Reality (AR), AI, and Deep Learning are finding their way into design, prototyping, production, and maintenance of vehicles. 3-D printed cars, such as the LSEV (costing $7,500), are already a reality.

 Conclusion

‘Disruption’, ‘Digitalization’, and ‘Decarbonization’ are forces which are here to stay in the Transportation Industry. Transportation companies and business leaders will have to be driven to survive the turbulence caused by these forces.  

Other Supply Chain articles by the author –

 The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

 The Global Trends driving Supply Chains

 Virtual Supply Chains made easy

 Lasting Impact of Last Mile Delivery

 Blockchain for Shipping & Logistics

 The digitization of the shipping industry: 2020 CE and beyond