Trends in Road Safety: Are Our Roads Getting Safer?

The Department for Transport released their figures last week for UK road incidents in 2021 [1]. Trends from these figures should be taken within the context of the social situation of the previous few years. Indeed, because of the steadily encroaching march of a virus that became famous due to its potency over the past few years, it can be argued that we have lived through extraordinary times. This virus is, of course, COVID-19.

COVID-19’s assault on daily lives has been huge, from the people that it infiltrated potentially still coping with long term effects, to incarcerating us all in our homes through lockdown measures. The impact of COVID-19 has therefore affected everybody, whether they were afflicted with it directly or not.

Now that we are coming to the other side of the storm, the question of how COVID-19 has impacted road incidents in the longer term is beginning to be answered. Statistics published show that for 2021, there were 128,209 casualties, which is a 10% increase (115,584) from 2020 levels. Given that 2020 was a year that dramatically altered human behaviour across multiple domains, a more meaningful comparison is between 2021 and 2019, which shows a 20% decrease (153,158) from 2021 levels. If we look at trends over time, we can see that this decrease is notably higher than for any other pairings of adjacent years in the decade [2]:

Years All Incidents Trend

2010 - 2011 208,648 - 203,950 Decrease of 2%

2011 - 2012 203,950 - 195,723 Decrease of 4%

2012 - 2013 195,723 - 183,670 Decrease of 6%

2013 - 2014 183,670 - 194,477 Increase of 6%

2014 - 2015 194,477 - 186,189 Decrease of 4%

2015 - 2016 186,189 - 181,384 Decrease of 3%

2016 - 2017 181,384 - 170,993 Decrease of 6%

2017 - 2018 170,993 - 160,597 Decrease of 6%

2018 - 2019 160,597 - 153,158 Decrease of 5%

Of the decrease in all road incidents between 2021 and 2019, there were 12% fewer fatalities (1558 compared to 1752), 21% fewer slight injuries (100,759 compared to 122,182), and 13% fewer serious injuries (25,892 compared to 29,224). ?On the surface, it appears that, at least for general road safety, COVID-19 has had a positive influence, although the trend in demographics appears to be largely unaltered, such as most road incidents related to males, 25-59, on urban roads.

These statistics must however be seen in the context of the traffic volume, which steadily increased over the course of the decade until 2019, before sharply declining in 2020, and then beginning to climb again. Even disregarding 2020 because of the effects of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdown measures, there is a decrease of 12.1% in traffic level between 2021 and 2019 [3]. As a result, comparisons must be taken with caution because the traffic level can bias the comparison being made.

Indeed, Steve Gooding, director of motoring research charity the RAC Foundation, states that there is a concern that traffic will return to pre-pandemic levels, resulting in a rise in casualties and a persistently high casualty risk. However, he mentioned that government steps are being taken to increase road safety. This includes the Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, as part of his growth plan, outlining schemes that will improve safety on the roads in England through more streamlined consent processes [4]. These schemes are as follows [5]:

Roads

1. M27 Junction 8

2. A417 Air Balloon

3. M54-M6 Link Road

4. A164/Jock’s Lodge Junction Improvement Scheme

5. Tyne Bridge and Central Motorway A167 (M)

6. A1237 York Outer Ring Road Dualling Phase 1

7. A140 Long Stratton Bypass

8. A34 MRN Cheadle – Handforth Improvement Plan Phase 1

9. A350 Chippenham Bypass Improvements – Phase 4 & 5

10. A382 Drumbridges to Newton Abbot

11. A4123 Birchley Island

12. A500 Dualling

13. A511 Growth Corridor

14. A59 Kex Gill

15. A595 Grizebeck Bypass

16. A614/A6097 Corridor Scheme

17. North Hykeham Relief Road

18. A38 Bromsgrove Route Enhancement Programme

19. A3102 Swindon Safer Road Scheme

20. A186 Tyne and Wear Safer Road Scheme

21. A35 Weymouth Safer Road Scheme

22. A165 Scarborough Safer Road Scheme

23. A13 London Safer Road Scheme

24. A3056 Isle of Wight Safer Road Scheme

25. A5038 Liverpool Safer Road Scheme

26. A2010 Brighton Safer Road Scheme

27. A625 Derbyshire Safer Road Scheme

28. A35 Devon Safer Road Scheme

29. A6022 Ipswich South Yorkshire Safer Road Scheme

30. A586 Blackpool Safer Road Scheme

31. A1156 Ipswich Safer Road Scheme

32. A6042 Manchester Safer Road Scheme

33. A5183 Elstree Safer Road Scheme

34. A4030 Smethwick Safer Road Scheme

35. A25 Surrey Safer Road Scheme

36. A6130 Nottingham Safer Road Scheme

37. A4158 Oxford Safer Road Scheme

38. A104 Epping Safer Road Scheme

39. A113 Brentwood Safer Road Scheme

40. A19 Selby Safer Road Scheme

41. A2047 Portsmouth Safer Road Scheme

42. A23 Croydon Safer Road Scheme

43. A3025 Southampton Safer Road Scheme

44. A361 Devon Safer Road Scheme

45. A38 Devon Safer Road Scheme

46. A609 Nottingham Safer Road Scheme

47. A420 Oxford Safer Road Scheme

48. A579 Bolton Safer Road Scheme

49. A676 Bolton Safer Road Scheme

50. A4165 Oxford Safer Road Scheme

51. A432 Bristol Safer Road Scheme

52. A5105 Morecambe Safer Road Scheme

53. A6 Preston Safer Road Scheme

54. A41 Birkenhead Safer Road Scheme

55. A439 Stratford Safer Road Scheme

56. A60 Leicestershire Safer Road Scheme

57. A5191 Shrewsbury Safer Road Scheme

58. A6200 Nottingham Safer Road Scheme

59. A52 East Midlands Safer Road Scheme

60. A6 Safer Road Scheme

61. A583 Manchester Safer Road Scheme

62. A690 County Durham Safer Road Scheme

63. A57 Liverpool Safer Road Scheme

64. M25 Junction 10

65. M25 Junction 28

66. A66 - Northern Transpennine

67. A303 Stonehenge

68. A428 Black Cat

69. A358 Taunton to Southfields

70. A1 dualling – Morpeth to Ellingham

71. A4174 MOD Roundabout Improvements

72. A22 Corridor Package (East Sussex)

73. A259 (King’s Road) Seafront, Highway Structures (‘Arches’) Renewal Programme

74. A374/A386/A364 Plymouth MRN Phase 1

75. A38 North Somerset (formerly Bristol Airport Access)

76. A4174 Ring Road Junction Improvements

77. A426/A4071 Avon Mill/Hunters Lane Improvements

78. A509 Isham Bypass

79. A582 South Ribble Western Distributor Upgrade

80. A595 Bothel Strategic Improvements

81. A650 Tong Street

82. A689 Corridor Improvements - Wynyard and Hartlepool

83. Brent Cross Highway Structures - Asset Renewal

84. Dawson’s Corner Junction and Stanningley Bypass

85. Gallows Corner Roundabout Improvements

86. Norwich Western Link

No details have been provided beyond this, so the schemes cannot be critically assessed. However, the scope of intention is impressive.

To understand how 2021 compares to earlier years, a comparable year for traffic must be taken into consideration. As such, the years 2021 and 2002 should be compared, which respectively had a traffic rate of 298 and 300 billion vehicle miles for UK roads [6]. The fact that traffic was steadily increasing every year, but then COVID-19 occurred and it reduced traffic to the level observed almost 20 years ago is worthy of note. Analysing trends shows a staggering 58% decrease in all road incidents between 2021 (128,209) and 2002 (302,605).

Whilst this comparison accounts for traffic volume, this comparison is unfortunately problematic because there have been many innovations since the start of the century until now (see the blogs ‘Driven to Distraction’ and ‘Effectiveness of Policies to Reduce Drivers’ Speed’ for more information).?As such, there are many factors that could have influenced the risk of drivers being involved in road incidents, which are difficult to disentangle. Gaining a true understanding of the effects of COVID-19 on road incidents is thus difficult to establish, and will require data from oncoming years to provide robust conclusions.

Regardless of whether the pandemic has provided long term influences on road safety, the trend is clear: every year, roads are (generally) becoming safer. The increased focus of local and global agencies investing their time and effort into reducing road incidents means that great strides are being made to ensure that this trend will continue. However, more work is required to ensure that, of the incidents that do occur, there is no group of people that is at risk compared to others; currently, men are disproportionately affected. Research should perhaps focus on understanding demographic trends, not just general trends of incidents. Only then will we have roads that are not just safer, but safer for all.

References

[1] Department for Transport. (2022). Reported road casualty statistics in Great Britain: interactive dashboard. Retrieved from https://maps.dft.gov.uk/road-casualties/index.html on 30/09/2022.

[2] Department for Transport. (2022). Numbers and rates of reported road casualties by road user type, Great Britain, from 1926 [note 1] [Excel]. Retrieved from https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/reported-road-accidents-vehicles-and-casualties-tables-for-great-britain on 30/09/2022.

[3] Department for Transport. (2022). Road Traffic Estimates: Great Britain 2021. Retrieved from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1107056/road-traffic-estimates-in-great-britain-2021.pdf on 30/09/2022.

[4] Lupupa, J. (2022, 29 September). Road fatalities rise to more than 1,500 in 2021 after traffic increases post-pandemic. Retrieved from https://news.sky.com/story/road-fatalities-rise-to-more-than-1-500-in-2021-after-traffic-increases-post-pandemic-12707456 on 30/09/2022.

[5] gov.uk. (2022, 23 September). The Growth Plan 2022 (HTML). Retrieved from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-growth-plan-2022-documents/the-growth-plan-2022-html on 30/09/2022.

[6] Department for Transport. (2022). Road traffic statistics. Retrieved from ?https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/summary on 30/09/2022.