Traversing through the UNEP Emission Gap Report 2023

Recently, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has released the 14th Emission Gap Report, titled "Broken Record Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)", which tracks the progress in limiting global warming well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement.

About Emissions gap: It is the difference between the estimated global GHG emissions resulting from full implementation of latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and those under least – cost pathways aligned with the long - term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

Key highlights

1. Global GHG emissions set new record of 57.4 gigatonnes of CO2 equivaent per year (GtCO2e) in 2022. There were 86 days which have been recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre – industrial levels this year. The global GHG emissions increased by 1.2 % from 2021 to 2022 with fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes being main contributors.

2. Current and historical emissions are highly unequally distributed within and among countries, reflecting global patterns of inequality. Globally, the 10% of the population with the highest income accounted for 48% of emissions.

3. There has been negligible movement on NDCs since COP 27, but some progress in NDCs and policies since the Paris Agreement was adopted.

4. The number of net-zero pledges continues to increase, but confidence in their implementation remains low.

5. The emissions gap in 2030 remains high: current unconditional NDCs imply a 14 GtCO2e gap for a 2°C goal and a 22 GtCO2e gap for the 1.5°C goal. The additional implementation of the conditional NDCs reduces these estimates by 3 GtCO2e.

Table: Global total GHG emissions in 2030, 2035 and 2050, and estimated gaps under different scenarios

6. Action in this decade will determine the ambition required in the next round of NDCs for 2035, and the feasibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

Table: Global GHG emissions in 2030, 2035 and 2050, and global warming characteristics of least-cost pathways starting in 2020 consistent with limiting global warming to specific temperature limits

7. If current policies are continued, global warming is estimated to be limited to 3°C. Delivering on all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030 lowers this estimate to 2.5°C, with the additional fulfilment of all net-zero pledges bringing it to 2°C.

8. The failure to stringently reduce emissions in high-income countries and to prevent further emissions growth in low- and middle-income countries implies that all countries must urgently accelerate economy-wide, low-carbon transformations to achieve the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

9. Low- and middle-income countries face substantial economic and institutional challenges in low-carbon energy transitions, but can also exploit opportunities.

10. Further delay of stringent global GHG emissions reductions will increase future reliance on CDR to meet the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

India related findings

• GHG emissions across the G20 increased by 1.2% in 2022, with increases in China, India, Indonesia, and the USA but decreases in Brazil, EU and Russia.
• India to date has only contributed 5% of the global warming.
• India has 8% implementation gap between Current Policies and NDC pledges.

To get a copy of the report: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023