TRAVEL: A logical approach to to Corona Virus

Look, this whole corona virus thing is making us all anxious, stressed and tired - I'm sure you’re feeling much same. Ultimately, we’re not sure what’s going to happen over the coming days weeks and months. My prediction is that most of us will be ok - just need to weather the storm. This does not detract from it being stressful and difficult. Here, I have tried to put together some information for you and any of your clients or family that may have travel planned or are planning to still travel over the next couple of months.

 By now, I am sure you all know what the corona virus is and what it is about: It is going to continue to spread around the world (we’re just not sure how widely), 80-90 per cent of cases are and will be mild (many even asymptomatic - meaning no symptoms), in the most part children appear to be spared from the disease, the most at risk are the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.

At time of writing, we’ve had over 98,000 cases of the novel corona virus (or COVID-19) worldwide and a little over 3,000 deaths. For the majority of people reading this, the statistics are still very much in your favor—even if you contract the disease.

 You also likely know how best to protect yourself: Regularly wash your hands (properly) and/or use hand sanitiser, don’t touch your face, cough into your elbow, generally practice good and respectful personal hygiene, try not to lick anyone who looks sick, do not lick anyone if you are sick. You know—that kind of thing. 

 That advice is all well and good for going about your daily life—but what if you have some form of travel booked, or even just had plans to travel in 2020? What if you’ve already dropped a couple of thousand bucks on flights and accommodation, or are weighing up whether or not to do just that? What then?

Should I cancel my travel plans because of corona virus?

The short answer, (at time of putting this together) is no, probably not. The World Health Organization (WHO), has repeatedly and clearly stated that unless you are in a region where corona virus is spreading, or have travelled to/from an area where it is rapidly spreading, or have been in contact with an infected person, your risk of infection remains low. It is more likely that the mental health effects of the corona virus (caused by media hyped panic - in my opinion) and seeing tourism business's folding, airlines collapsing and wider socio-economics effects will have far greater human impact than the virus itself.

 The more protracted answer depends on who you are, where you’re going, when you’re going and how you’re going. A medical professor from the University of Sydney (Professor Robert Booy) has come out saying “I, personally, am still planning to go to Europe in 10 days’ time,”. Professor Booy, an world leading expert in infectious diseases. “I feel the risk in Europe for someone aged under 60 is not high, if you’re going to countries other than Italy in the case of Europe, which has the highest rate of contraction at the moment”.

 Professor Booy reinforces that 'your' personal state should help inform any decision to travel. That means your age, whether you have a chronic medical illness, and whether you are likely to be mixing in crowds and countries that have known high transmission rates. “I wouldn’t at present, go to the big four countries—South Korea, Japan, Iran or Italy, you will notice I have left off China and that is due to the virus being contained by in large and recovery rate in China is now higher than the contraction rate” he says.

 At time of writing, the US Department of State has issued Level 4 (‘Do Not Travel’) warnings to Iran and China, Level 3 (‘Reconsider Travel’) warnings to South Korea and Italy, and a Level 2 (‘Exercise Increased Caution’) warning for Japan. The New Zealand, Australian and several other governments has just announced that anyone who has returned from either China, South Korea, Iran or Italy must self-isolate for 14 days.

 Wherever you’re based, it’s worth checking your government travel advisory for the latest travel advice before planning anything. And if you have something booked, your first move should be to call your airline, tour company and insurance company to seek their counsel, then square that with your own research.

 Travel anywhere, at any time, has always involved a level of risk. In fact there is a higher risk of catching a disease on a public bus or train that will cause serious health implications than catching the Corona Virus full stop. The spread of corona virus certainly poses a new risk and I am not down playing that fact. Travellers should do their own research, consider their personal situation and seek official advice before deciding on their travel plans for the coming months. This is where travel advisors or agents, insurers and government immigration websites are absolutely vital. 

 What if I’m still unsure?

It’s true that you won’t find any travel or health experts out there saying that travel is absolutely, 100 per cent safe, and that you should just carry on as normal. This is, in part, because nobody really knows how widely or quickly corona virus will spread, so traveling to one destination might be a good idea today and a bad idea tomorrow. It may be a bad idea today but a good idea tomorrow as well.

 But this is also the case for any travel irrespective of corona virus. Any travel, anywhere, at any time involves a roll of the dice. Booking a trip to a destination months or weeks in advance is no guarantee that, when the time finally comes to depart, that country will not have been hit by any combination of civil unrest, natural disaster, disease, war or any other kind of capital-B Bad Thing. Nor is there any form of guarantee that you won’t get sick by some other means after you arrive, before you leave or while you're sitting on an aircraft taxing down a runway (and there are almost an infinite number of other ways for a traveller to get sick, as the vast majority of experienced travellers will be able to tell you).

If I do plan on traveling in the next few months, what should I be wary of?

As of March 5th, WHO is still advising against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing corona virus flare-ups. This isn’t so much about ensuring the rights of travellers to take vacations, but rather because restricting movement of people and goods during these types of emergencies is “ineffective in most situations”, and can wind up harming local economies, industry and as mentioned previously will have a much larger impact on health than the virus itself.

There are other pragmatic reasons to help you decide where your travel should be too, and the precautions (and insurances) you take before you travel. “Even if you’re under the age of 50, 98 per cent of cases would be mild, but you could still fall moderately unwell—and then you’re at the mercy of the local primary care and hospital services,” says Professor Booy.

It’s not just about you getting sick, either. Even if you did journey overseas, contracted the virus and only experienced mild or even no symptoms, there is a 50% chance you could pass it on to others, who may suffer more dramatic or life-threatening symptoms. As such, Professor Booy says there needs to be a focus on everyone protecting the vulnerable—not just the vulnerable protecting themselves. “Just use your common sense, for goodness sake—don’t go and visit anyone who might catch something from you. Doesn’t matter if it’s corona virus, a cold, pneumonia or influenza, or any other respiratory virus or disease.”

If you do fall ill (with flu-like symptoms) upon returning home from any destination, call your doctor ASAP or Healthline and be prepared to self-isolate for up to 14 days.

Can I get a refund if I cancel my travel plans because of corona virus?

It depends on what you booked and who you booked with. Hotels often have lenient cancellation policies as long as you’re cancelling with more than 24-48 hours’ notice, whereas flights and tour packages—unless booked to one of the five major outbreak areas—might be harder to secure refunds for (depending on when you booked and the latest travel warnings/advice). You will find Travel Agents will have more flexibility in regards to refunds, holding credits or being able to change

 Some airlines, such as Air New Zealand and United, are beginning to waive ticket change fees for new bookings, while the likes of Intrepid Travel and The Travel Corporation (Trafalgar, Insights, Contiki etc) and countless others have revised their booking conditions and cancellation policy to make it easier for customers to change their plans.

 If you want to cancel your trip because you are worried you might catch corona virus, you might be covered by insurance as long as you booked before January 30th, which is when WHO declared this corona virus as a global health emergency. You also might not be covered it all depends on the policy that you have taken out.

Many insurance companies are now offering travellers the option of a Cancel-For-Any-Reason (CFAR) policy add-on. This means, basically, that you can cancel your trip for any reason—corona virus, the hiccups or anything—and be covered for it (or a large percentage of it). If you’re planning a trip later in the year and are yet to book, CFAR will certainly offer some peace of mind. It is worth discussing these type of policies with your travel agent or adviser before committing to purchase any travel at this stage.

 For pre-existing bookings made prior to the breakout where you have not taken out travel insurance, your best option is to contact the business you booked your travel with and ask them. Some companies have been showing more leniency over the past few days and weeks—for example offering full or partial refunds or rescheduling trips for no extra cost at a later date—and it’s likely that travel companies will be forced to establish some kind of policy to deal with the situation in the coming days or weeks.

 Just remember though that all these organisations employ people and they are losing significant amounts of revenue particularly airlines, cruise lines and small travel agencies. As a community of travellers we all need to band together. If you decide not to travel in the next few months the best support you can give to the industry is to hold your booking in a credit and defer travel to a later date in the next 12 months.

What will travel look like for the next few months?

Within the travel industry, there are very few businesses—save for insurance companies, who tend to do well in times like this—that will get out unscathed. That’s as true for wealthy airlines, hotel chains and global travel companies as it is for the local family businesses that rely on tourism for their income.

 It’s worth keeping that in mind when you’re deciding what to do about your trip. While you certainly shouldn’t do anything out of a feeling of guilt, any trips you do take over the next few months will have a tangible positive impact on local travel agents, local businesses and vendors everywhere you travel.

 If you decide to go overseas, great. You’ll probably be fine, and you’ll probably have a very nice time. If not, traveling more locally, in your own country, is one way to make sure you still spread some of your much-needed tourist dollars around.

 There will be some great incentives and discounts around the world on everything from flights, tour packages and accommodation to keep an eye on, too. Some hotels in Cairns and the Gold Coast in Australia, for example, who rely heavily on tourists from China, South Korea and Japan, there are travel agents who have partnered with hotels, cruise lines and airlines offering travel deals at half-price. We have seen some very reasonable airfares pop up over the last couple of weeks too, such as Air New Zealand's $69 seat fares to Sydney and Melbourne.

 And while travel to most destinations around the world remains safe, and your risk of infection remains quite low, any traveller who is slightly more worried would well to seek out some of the world’s more sparsely-populated destinations or travel their own back yard! For kiwi's a trip down to Queenstown or Napier would be amazing!

 My 5 key points to keep in mind for travel in the midst of corona virus:

1. Consider your personal situation before you travel anywhere: Your age, your physical condition, and medical history. If you’re young and fit, the majority of the world is still very much open to you. If you are in the older traveller bracket and have asthma or another illness, or are otherwise already compromised, maybe don’t travel. Common sense is key.

 2. Practice good hygiene at home and abroad. It’s as much about keeping others safe as it is keeping yourself safe. Even if you contract corona virus, you can still prevent it spreading by following the advice. Again, common sense.

 3. If you have something booked but are genuinely feeling anxious about it, you can try and reschedule the trip for later in the year, or next year, when things may have settled. Chances are you’d be fine, but if you think you’ll be worrying too much to enjoy your trip, it’ll be a waste of money, more than anything. Re-booking, instead of canceling, means the businesses you’re using know that you’ll be coming back, and can plan for it. Plus you're helping to keep people in the travel industry employed by deferring rather than cancelling.

 4. Check with your travel agent, immigration or health department and insurance companies for their latest advice before making a decision. Weigh it all up yourself, and make a decision that you, first and foremost, feel comfortable with.

 5. Get all of your information from the relevant government/official channels. We have been through this and much worse in the past - just know this whole thing will pass in the coming months.