Transitions: Escaping Forwards

We are experiencing permacrisis with strong interdependencies between actors and countries.?

Economists relayed by NGOs note that the energy crisis, weak global growth and high inflation are considerably slow down the recovery processes that were developing in the post-covid-19 era.?

A lot of things can go wrong right now.

Similarly, the whole world lacks water and essential resources to pursue the last big transitions and attract new capital.

In this tormented context, states and companies have started so-called reforms, positive and sustainable transitions. So, technology and the systemic approach are at the heart of the innovation and adaptation processes.

Only these actions and transitions again seem to create new negative social and environmental externalities.

If yesterday's solutions (thermal motor, for example) are today's problems, the "clean transition", in a complex and interdependent world, he's a problem even before its large-scale application.

Moreover, defining a transition goals and implementing a plan is not always the right thing to do because different conditions and constraints must be prepared before including the definition of a direction with the partners and a serious link between man and nature.

Let's look at these new externalities through two examples: the electric car and the desalination of seawater.

Electric car :

The production of an electric car is expected to require around 167 tonnes of lithium and 125 tonnes of cobalt. For example, a target of just 15 million electric cars would require 90,000 tons of lithium and 120,000 tons of cobalt. However, annual world production amounts to 105,000 tonnes of lithium and 165,000 tonnes of cobalt. Standard & Poor's Global Mobility analysts expect around 220 million battery electric cars to be built over the next eight years to 2030. Based on current technology, the needs of the next eight years for the construction of these cars represent 157% of the world's lithium production in 2021, and those of cobalt 133% of the world's production in 2021.

Not to mention the question of the energy supply for the 220 million electric cars desired worldwide by 2030. According to this report, only in Germany an additional 45 terawatt hours of electricity would be required for the operation of 15 million EVs expected in 2030, which would correspond to 7.9 percent of Germany's electricity consumption in 2021.?

During last winter, the electricity needs in some European countries were still 50 percent covered by l fossil energy (coal, gas, and nuclear power plants). With such a mix of power generation, electric cars are no more climate-friendly than combustion cars.

Another negative impact is that of the improper use of water. Water which is a vital resource for the production of the electric car. It takes over 100 liters to manufacture a single essential electronic chip and between 41,000 and 1.9 million liters of water to extract a ton of lithium.

Desalination of sea water:?

Even before the adoption of the Green Deal in Europe, the world had already expected the effects of climate change on economic sectors and society. Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (arid and semi-arid zones) have installed seawater desalination plants and are trying to increase their storage capacity by building new dams. However, the technology is expensive and energy consuming, with detrimental environmental impacts as the plants produce desalination plants produce more brine than fresh water and these brine discharges disrupt coastal ecosystems and cause temperature rise waters.

Will the price of this water be affordable for the global consumer? The dam policy, launched in the past, seems effective in coping with recurrent droughts, but the current storage capacity remains insufficient to compensate for losses because of climate change and the overuse of groundwater.

The question relating to water and energy reserves a particular focus from the public authorities, with long-term choices which would make it possible to give visibility to manufacturers on the volumes of energy and water got, obviously with competitive production costs. The decarbonization of global economic activity is both a challenge and an opportunity for companies to maintain and merge access to international and regional markets that are increasingly demanding in terms of respect for the environment.

Conclusion :?

The electric car has been presented as the miracle solution to new mobility. Sea water as a matter of survival not to disappear. In reality, man is once again directly attacking nature and the oceans. Are they really solutions for the well-being of society or a new generation of greenwashing and socialwashing projects to hide risks and opportunities? Whatever the reason for the electric car and the desalination of sea water, a fake never gives a real one and what we hide today comes back like a black swan, said Nasim Taleb. So what would be the next black CYNE of this new digital and new energy economy?

The Germans speak of "die Feucht nach vorne": the Escaping Forwards. When the situation is hopeless, attack. Instead of listening to crises, thinking and changing the mental model, move forward in productivities and problem transitions! When there is no way out, go for it again, through tailor-made reforms, in a new generation of transitions!

The transition belongs to the future.?Meanwhile, we have a weakened world and vulnerable familiy and small business need a sincere initiative for a goodly life.

Amachraa Abdelmonim