Transitioning to Net Zero

I've just taken part in the first 2024 webinar from the Association of European Transport's Transport and Mobility Forum. Hosted by Conall Mac Aongusa , Chaired by Derek Halden and with Susan Krumdieck and Elizabete Arsenio alongside me on the Panel, we got stuck into the wicked matter of the future ahead of us and what influence we might bring to bear.

I set out below the script for my opening remarks. I'm very conscious that they focus moreso on making sense of the difficult circumstances we find ourselves in than on a magical 'solution' to successful transition to net zero. This perhaps befits the enormity of our collective challenge.

Setting some context

Well, what a topic to begin the year and reconnect professionally with. My head was hurting just thinking about it!

Let’s set a bit of context. Here we are in a single online event with four people in conversation about transitioning to net zero looking for answers. Meanwhile, over the coming few days, around 13,000 people are descending – mostly by high emissions planes - on Washington for the annual US Transportation Research Board meeting where there will be some 5000 presentations. I suspect the questions posed will comfortably outnumber any offers of satisfactory answers. They will relate to unnumerable challenges and opportunities, both big and small, all of which mix together to form the swirl of possibilities for the future amidst the inertia of the incumbent regime of the present.

The complexity of our world and society is mind blowing and things are in a considerable state of flux. If we were all bringing our diverse talents and expertise together to engage in a common, and commonly understood, purpose, guided by effective co-ordination and stewardship, then transitioning to a new regime might be a prospect to behold.

A regime transition is tough, especially against the clock

A decade ago I wrote about transport’s transition as the digital age was colliding and merging with the motor age and when we were experiencing a phenomenon that was called ‘peak car’. Back then I made only brief mention of climate change and decarbonisation. Transitions can take decades to fully unfold as we move from one way of the world to another. In many countries, we have lived for so long in the established regime of so-called ‘automobility’ that it can be hard to conceive of what new regime lies ahead. Living through a regime transition and making sense of it in real time can be very challenging.

What makes our current state of flux all the more challenging is that we are transitioning against the clock. It is far from clear that we are going to beat the clock when it comes to decarbonisation. Indeed, let’s remind ourselves that we face a so-called polycrisis. It is said we are bearing witness to the sixth mass extinction. Yet still we cannot all agree that this is something to be greatly alarmed by, let alone agree on how to address it. We are at risk of facing the mother of all social dilemmas as, at both individual and state levels, we are guarded about what others will do if we make sacrifices, and sorely tempted to put ourselves first in the hope that others will act to make things better. Yet united we stand, divided we fall.

A diverse (and divisive) set of actors

I was introduced by Dr Frank Chuang to the notion of there being four world views that characterise humans. There are egalitarians but also individualists; there are also hierarchists alongside fatalists. Which view do you hold? Each world view has a different take in terms of what concerns and motivates them that in turn affects a person’s expressed attitudes and behaviours. Damn, it’s complicated.

Last year I also found myself conceiving of what I called the ‘Pentagram of Influence’ – the interplay between five different constituencies when it comes to influence and ability to influence – politicians, the public, the fossil fuel and car industries, the mainstream media, and us the transport professionals. As my Dutch colleague Professor Vincent Marchau would say, ‘What a mess!’.

Technology fix or technology fix-ation?

Can we put our faith in technology fixes during this transition, or are they more appropriately to be seen as technology fix-ations? It seems we have a habit of pursing so-called solutions that themselves create unintended and undesirable consequences so that we perpetually pursue resolution. What I’m clear about is that we are not here in the realms of merely solving complex technical problems, much as we seem to love prioritising Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (or ‘STEM’ for short). We are in the realms of trying to manage multiple wicked problems – problems we cannot agree on defining, that we lack evidence about and which are intertwined with each other.

To manage wicked problems you need co-operation not competition between multiple disciplines and differing views and perspectives.

Playing our individual parts as snowflakes

So, what is to be done to improve the prospects of transitioning to Net Zero? There are of course no quick-fix answers. Perhaps our sense of uncertainty about the future is at its peak right now, perhaps not.

We must work with a conviction that out of disarray and slower-than-hoped-for change can emerge alignment and sense of common direction as the transition picks up pace. When I compare today with looking back to before the Greta phenomenon, I see already a considerable amount of change in awareness, concern, prioritisation and efforts when it comes to decarbonisation. More positive change can come, even if not fast enough. We each then must turn to the small but cumulatively significant parts we can play in this transition. As my friend and colleague Stephen Cragg says, no snowflake ever thought it started the avalanche.

If we all make the efforts to challenge our own thinking, open our minds to wider understanding of the world around us, and in turn become prepared to speak up and speak out for change then I believe - with some good fortune amidst the array of different world views and vested interests - we have the prospect of achieving change for the better.

However, what that change is set to be as we look forwards I am far from clear on. Transitioning to something new, yes, but transitioning to what? I haven’t a clue!