Transition to lower carbon economy

We are at the crossroads in accelerating the conversation on how Australia can effectively reduce carbon emissions.

This is not a conversation about coal or renewables, an either-or outcome as many want us to believe nor should the debate be owned by one loud and disruptive minority section of the community that continue to break laws others abide by or those Australians just trying to make a decent living and provide for their families and this conversation can’t be isolated to the capital city’s of our nation. We are stronger together.

How do we keep the lights on, cash registers ringing, air conditioning running, industry and manufacturing businesses open, people employed across the entire country and not just in the capital city’s as we move towards a low carbon economy?

We are on the cusp of 2020, and just like last summer, this summer AEMO are actually paying millions to large energy users to shut the factory doors, close up the shop and or reduce energy consumption on peak days just because we as a nation can’t mange a smooth transition to renewable targets or pass legislation that effectively reduces emissions in line with our COP 21 Paris agreement.

One should be reminded, that the #greens voted against the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme on 2 December 2009, ten years ago. Imagine where Australia's emissions would be if this not perfect but certainly acceptable legislation was LAW. The Greens have a lot to be held accountable for and voting against reducing carbon emissions isn't a bad place to start. Of course, they will hate hearing this.

Don’t forget we have had two federal elections, 2013 and 2019 lost on Climate Change (there were other reasons) so it’s safe to say, we care about Climate Change however it appears it’s not enough to change the way Australians vote or change the government of the day.

Let’s talk about how we can transition to a low carbon economy and maintain high paying skilled jobs in Regional Australia and allow all Australians to share in a Just Transition and not divide the nation into winners and losers, country or city.

Australia has an aging fleet of thermal coal-fired power stations along the east coast, with the numbers declining due to age, maintenance costs, emissions and the transition to a low carbon economy.

The next power station to close (2022-2024) will be Liddell 2000MW in New South Wales and after this the timelines for the next closures and where are a matter of much speculation, however, one thing is certainly a fact, AEMO requires at least three years' notice on the closure of generation capacity.

In Queensland, the most likely closures will be Gladstone 1680MW date debateable (private sector) and on 27 October 2019 in regard to Callide B 700MW, “CS Energy (QLD Government Owned Corporation) recently informed the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) that its forecast closure date for Callide B Power Station is 2028, in accordance with new reporting requirements for large generators to provide advance notice of plant closures.

On the east coast of Australia within the next eight years approx. we will more than likely see over 4300MW of base-load generation removed for the east-coast electricity network.

AEMO Statement of Opportunities 2019 (page6), 8 "Notice and mechanism of closure–the current three-year notice of closure rule for generators does not fully protect consumers from potentially significant-high price and load shedding risks in the lead up to, and following a major generator closure. As generators approach decommissioning, the risk of a major outage or unforeseen early exit due to economic consideration increases.

Despite what you may hear there will be no new coal-fired power stations built in Australia to replace the existing baseload."

Three years' notice of impending coal-fired power station closure is not enough time to replace base-load generation.

Industry insiders in the power and resources sectors tell me we need at least 5 if not 8 years to adequately replace base-load power generation, detailed design, EIS approvals, construction, testing, and financing. We all remember the debacle the closure of Hazelwood 1600MW in 2017 caused in Victoria and the National Energy Market (NEM) prices for power increased.

Natural Gas must play a dominant role in Australia's transition away from thermal coal-powered electricity generation. This is not a short story.

I really like Senator Matt Canavan the Minister for Northern Australia and Resources he's a big supporter of the natural resources sector, he’s a character, he listens, great sense of humour, has a great understanding of his portfolios, he has great advisors and best of all he's a Queenslander living in Rockhampton however the Commonwealth does not own a BBQ bottle of natural gas that it has jurisdiction over in Queensland, natural resources are within State’s rights. The commonwealth’s regulatory involvement is to issue LNG export licenses from Gladstone and of course the regressive Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM).

Again industry insiders tell me, the ADGSM will not add a single BBQ bottle of new natural gas supply into the East Coast Domestic Gas market. Thanks to the Hon Anthony Lynham the Minister for Natural Resources, Mines and Energy, Queensland has a Gas Reservation Policy and we are seeing new gas delivered from Senex Energy's (ASX:SXY) Atlas Project in the Surat Basin into the domestic market on a daily basis.

If the Prime Minister, Minister for Energy the Hon Angus Taylor and Senator’s Matt Canavan and Rex Patrick are committed to delivering lower emissions and new natural gas supplies into the East Coast domestic market, the ADGSM is not the regulatory tool to achieve this outcome and the commonwealth have invested very little to make this happen.

Prime Minister, Minister and Senator’s, the solution is simple, build the 400km gas pipeline from Moranbah-Nebo to Rolleston in Central Queensland and connect the stranded North Bowen Basin natural gas reserves into the domestic east coast market placing long-term downward pressure on gas prices for manufacturing, industry, mums, and dads. 

There is enough natural gas in the North Bowen Basin to supply the East Coast of Australia’s gas demand for more than 30 years.

A $400 million dollar Commonwealth investment into building gas pipelines a piece of nation-building infrastructure, like the Rookwood Weir, the Hells Gate Dam and investing in the Pacific Highway that will grow jobs in Central Queensland and increase economic activity for small businesses in the region, especially in towns like Nebo, Rockhampton, Mackay, and Townsville. The natural gas can flow, north to Townsville and underpin new-age hi-tech lithium battery manufacturing in the city and south into the east coast domestic gas market. There could also be strict controls placed around exporting North Bowen Basin natural gas as LNG ex Gladstone while keeping downward pressure on domestic gas prices.

Let’s use NAIF funding to get brightly coloured fluoro shirts on the ground, bulldozers working, pipe manufacturers manufacturing and most of all let's get building and drilling for natural gas in Central Queensland, after all, there is no gas in New South Wales or Victoria.

Once we have an agreement and politicians embrace natural gas as a transition fuel we can set about replacing some of the coal-fired base-load power generation with low emissions natural gas generation.

Heavy industry and manufacturing can't operate without a reliable power supply nor can they operate in the current environment of being paid to reduce their energy load on hot days.

Northern Australia needs a larger population and Townsville needs to double in size to about 400,000 people and to grow they need, long term water security and affordable pricing paths and many in the north are advocating for the construction of Hells Gate Dam, they also need reliable baseload power, not a copper wire from Mt Isa to Townsville chocked full of renewables and they want affordable long term energy prices that attract business investment and most of all Northern Australia needs a larger farming, agriculture, and food products sector to underpin our nation and provide high-value export opportunities for second and third-generation farmers. People, Water, Food, Power.

Central and North Queensland have a skilled workforce ready to meet the challenges as they transition away from the thermal coal sector, all we need do is provide them with the opportunity for ongoing jobs and bring them into the conversation about how Australia has a plan to reduce our carbon emissions. Trust them, after all, they are the ones being displaced by new technology and climate action. There is no other option, our regionals demand and deserve equity in the job market, not a job market skewed against them by trade, by industry, or by the fear of new technology and Climate Change.

So here’s a thought.

a) The Commonwealth Government to underwrite a gas pipeline to bring North Bowen Basin natural gas into the domestic market;

b) This will open up the North Bowen Basin for domestic gas production and has the capacity to be a fuel source for low emissions gas-fired power generation;

c) Build a modular 250MW (maximum1000MW) gas-fired power station in and or around Nebo in Central Queensland to ensure sufficient baseload power is available to stabilise the transmission network that will allow Queensland to meet is 50% renewables target by 2030. Nebo is in an ideal location in terms of direct access into the transmission grid and other infrastructure;

d) Generate thousands of high paying skilled jobs across construction and operational in Regional Queensland;

Australia does not have the luxury of time on our side, a decade of lost opportunities nor should we wait for the next step-change in large scale battery storage or new technology and as Kerry Packer once said, there is only one Alan Bond” and there is only one Elon Musk (Telsa) and South Australia paid dearly for his rescue.

 #electricity #naturalgas #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #just transition #gaspoweredgeneration#queensland #townsville #centralqueensland #Climatechange