Transformation of the Automotive Industry - when and how.
Dr. Wilhelm Graupner
Executive Director, AVL - opinions are mine / I try to stick to facts ?????? at #ww520
Predicting the future is an interesting game - some people do it with a lot of foundation and thinking behind. So here I would like to present a roadmap I personally really like. But not without a warning, expressed in this link on “prophets”: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-11-04/transport-s-elusive-future-seen-in-a380-tata-nano-missteps
We can check it for occurrence of the events and for precision in the dates. My view is that the scenario is correct and perhaps a few years off. It is always easy to "judge in hindsight" but at the same time a valid quality check for futurologists :-)
So here is a scenario to check as an English summary - the inspiring original YouTube video from a conference in 2013 is unfortunately only available in German: https://youtu.be/JHUzfw24oCk
To support the picture above I included the Figure below from: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapHydrogenandFuelCells.pdf - it makes predictions on range and CO2 emissions of the different propulsion options.
Executive Director, AVL - opinions are mine / I try to stick to facts ?????? at #ww520
1 年The original video has been removed - here is an updated one. https://youtu.be/62BWCF0Z1WQ?si=BkSDHOdvNynrDDvX
Executive Director, AVL - opinions are mine / I try to stick to facts ?????? at #ww520
1 年Moritz Frobenius - as discussed just now, the origin of #ww520.
Lead Innovator - Hypuljet Ltd UK
4 年I have to say I have one problem "The end of Combustion" Sorry we are about to start development of H2- O2 Combustion in a Novel engine in 2021 So I would suggest that they clarify with End of Fossil Fuels Combustion. Might also get ready to change the whole aspect of decarboisation of Transport. A hydrogen fueled engine or perhaps 2 or 3 will be the way to bring about mass production of Zero Emissions Units in the numbers the world is in dire need of. Elon Musk says Tesla will be at 20,000,000 per year by 2030 starting 2025 thru to 2050 there is a need fior 60,000,000 per year based on 1.4 bill but Musk has it that by 2035 there will be 2 bill which will need 90 million based on a late start so clear BEVs will have a problem FCs in few millions
Brands & Dreams | Modern Monetary Reality | Digital Asset Strategist | ?udding Book Author | Goldbug
4 年Great report!
Senior Software Solution Specialist
7 年Hi Willi, I liked the presentation when I saw it 3 years ago and it was a good reminder. Here is another video which shows clearly those changes.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2IugOh2dg4&feature=youtu.be Enjoy....