Transforming mobility: from spaltma? to software

I still vividly remember the awe I felt as an 8-year-old staring at the "home" button on an infotainment system for the first time. Pressing it would take us home, right? My dad's gentle chuckle told me otherwise. Fast forward to my late 20s, and I finally got my license. It took me so long as I naively believed shared mobility held the future. Little did I know, a pandemic would twist the road ahead, making my own car not just a luxury, but a necessity. Three years on, while I find joy in the freedom of driving, the futuristic "smart car" of my childhood dreams remains elusive. Even today, true intelligence in automobiles seems like a distant mirage, let alone the elusive "home" button functionality.

The pursuit of intelligence in cars

Remember the clunky GPS units glued to dashboards, barking directions in robotic voices? Back then, the idea of a car seamlessly integrating with your life seemed like science fiction. Now, imagine this: stuck in rush hour, overwhelmed by city noise, yearning for a power nap. You tap "nap pod" on your car's touchscreen. The seat transforms into a cozy haven, the cacophony melts into calming Zen music, and a gentle breeze caresses your skin. Soft red light bathes the interior, coaxing you into sleep. Twenty minutes later, you awaken to birdsong and the murmur of a brook, feeling refreshed and ready to tackle the day. You instruct your car to recreate this ambiance at home in a couple of hours. Sounds fantastical, right?

A few years ago, this "nap pod" scenario might have been just a dream. But as someone involved in both IoT and mobility, I've observed first-hand a fascinating convergence: the potential for truly intelligent cars is closer than ever. The number of connected devices ballooning to 20 billion globally isn't just about smart homes and fridges; it's about transforming mobility with software. While Tesla spearheaded over-the-air updates (OTA) a decade ago, new players like China's Nio and HiPhi are taking things further. Forget infotainment systems riddled with glitches; these companies are reimagining the entire in-car experience. Indian 2-wheeler Electric Vehicle(EV) startups such as Ather and Ola are also championing periodic OTA by design. Nio envisions its luxury cars as an extension of your living room, seamlessly integrating technology for unparalleled comfort and convenience. Increasingly, like in China, customers are selecting automobiles based their digital experience, not just on horsepower.

Increasingly, like in China, customers are selecting automobiles based their digital experience.

This isn't just about bells and whistles, though. Software is revolutionizing everything from powertrains (think electric vehicles and beyond) to safety features. The lines between hardware and software are blurring, paving the way for cars that truly learn, adapt, and personalize your journey. But are we there yet? Not quite.

This is where the story gets interesting. Join me as we delve into the challenges and opportunities on the road to truly intelligent cars. We'll explore the complex interplay between hardware and software, the need for radical innovation, and the exciting role new players and new markets are playing. Buckle up because the future of mobility promises to be a wild ride!

What's stopping cars from becoming smart?

We dream of cars that anticipate our needs, seamlessly integrating into our lives. But why haven't they caught up to the smart revolution transforming everything else? While our smartphones and computers evolve at lightning speed, cars seem stuck in a bygone era. The answer lies in a tangled web of complexity, historical baggage, and an industry in need of a refresh. Unlike our sleek mobile devices, cars juggle far more than user experience. They're intricate machines demanding perfection to the spaltma? (German word for clearance) in mechanics, power, safety, and comfort. Any compromise in safety could result in fatalities, which is why automobile components are classified using the Automotive Safety Integration Level (ASIL). The ASIL world differs significantly from the agile world, where a half-baked beta MVP version could be tested with customers. ?This focus on "mission-critical" functionality might explain the slower pace of innovation, but it doesn't justify stagnation in a multi-trillion-dollar industry.

While cars have come a long way, incremental innovations have resulted in layers of complexity – a spaghetti mess of hardware, embedded software, and architectures. Imagine a system complexity map of a modern car; it resembles a byzantine puzzle!

Controlling this tangled beast is no easy feat, especially with Electronic Control Units (ECUs) acting as independent kingdoms. These specialized units, sourced from various vendors, run their own embedded software, making smooth communication a costly and time-consuming nightmare. This explains why car development takes 4-7 years – a stark contrast to the agile world of smartphones.

Furthermore, innovation in the automotive world often originates outside the car itself. Tier 1 suppliers like Bosch have historically driven a lot of progress, innovating features such as ABS and ESP. This has made vehicle OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) more like assemblers than innovators, further distancing them from software expertise.

However, the tide is turning. Emerging new age challenger OEMs, unburdened by legacy systems, are rewriting the script. They understand the power of software-defined vehicles (SDVs), where software sits at the core, not as an afterthought. This allows for seamless integration, rapid updates, and the kind of personalized experiences we crave.

These new players are shaking things up, forcing traditional OEMs to re-evaluate. They're realizing that the future of cars lies in a radical approach, one that breaks down silos, embraces software expertise, and prioritizes customer experience. It's time to hit refresh on the entire value chain, freeing cars from the shackles of the past and unlocking their true potential as intelligent companions.

It's time to hit refresh on the entire value chain, freeing cars from the shackles of the past and unlocking their true potential as intelligent companions.

From fragmented code to fluid freedom

Remember the clunky car stereos we used to battle with? Imagine instead, a car that learns your preferences, seamlessly integrates with your smart home, and even lets you download apps for personalized experiences like a "nap mode" or mood lighting or much more. Sounds futuristic, right? But the reality is, such cars are no longer science fiction. They're the inevitable result of a crucial shift: decoupling hardware and software in the automotive industry.

For decades, cars have been built with hardware and software operating in separate silos, worse still multiple embedded silos of ECUs! This "incremental innovation" approach, while fostering mechanical and electrical excellence, has left software lagging. This mismatch creates limitations. Imagine updating your car's safety features taking years instead of days, like on your smartphone!

The solution? Disruptive decoupling: separating hardware and software, with a central software platform at the heart. The entire hardware software abstraction is called the SdV stack. Very similar to think from lens of Internet of Things (IoT) stack however, the "thing" here being a car with mammoth potential for computing and more. Think of shift from ECUs like swapping out multiple, clunky calculators for a powerful, unified computer. This central platform, empowered by cutting-edge technologies like supercomputer-level processing power, would govern the entire vehicle.

The benefits are twofold:

For you, the driver:

• Personalized experiences: Download applications from the vehicle app store for "nap mode," smart home integration, or even productivity features while charging. Imagine your car seamlessly adjusting air conditioning, lighting, and music to match your mood or preferences.
• Rapid updates: Forget waiting years for bug fixes or new features. With decoupling, updates could happen as quickly as on your phone, ensuring your car is always at its best.
• Future-proof business model: An SdV becomes adaptable to future technologies. Imagine seamlessly integrating vehicles to shared ownership as opposed to private ones; perhaps renting it out when not in use?

For manufacturers:

• Simplified development: A centralized platform streamlines development, reducing costs and time to market.
• Increased innovation & revenue streams: Freed from hardware constraints, software engineers can unleash their creativity, leading to new, exciting features and services, which could also be priced.
• Agility and adaptability: Responding to market trends and customer needs becomes faster and easier, giving manufacturers a competitive edge.

The smartphone revolutionized communication; now, SdVs can revolutionize mobility. But this future isn't guaranteed. Concerns about security, data privacy, and safety-critical updates need to be addressed. However, with collaboration and innovation, these challenges can be overcome.

It's time to embrace disruptive decoupling. It's time to unlock the true potential of software and create cars that are more than just machines – they'll be intelligent, adaptable companions, seamlessly woven into the fabric of our connected lives.

Vehicle of the Future

Fast forward to today, and cars are inching closer to becoming rolling supercomputers on wheels. But the future holds an even bolder vision: the SdVs, where lines between hardware and software blur, transforming our cars into personalized, intelligent companions. This radical shift transcends a mere "next-gen" feature list. It's not just about safety, performance, or even driver assistance. Imagine vehicles morphing into second living rooms, seamlessly connected ecosystems, and potentially, driverless havens.

This transformation includes the SdV stack, onboard supercomputers, 5G connectivity, digital twin, edge applications, among others, enabling computing workloads to shift between the vehicle computer and the cloud as per needs.

And who's leading the charge? Challenger OEMs, unburdened by legacy systems, are crafting state-of-the-art vehicles with software at their core. It is second nature to them as they are digital natives. This means, unlike your typical car purchase, you're essentially buying the "base model" with continuous updates enhancing it throughout its life. Think Tesla's Autopilot evolving over time, and you get the picture. This shift ushers in exciting new business models. Imagine paying for features like advanced driver assistance systems on a subscription basis, just like streaming services! The car becomes a platform for ongoing value creation, both for manufacturers and drivers.

Imagine paying for features like advanced driver assistance systems on a subscription basis, just like streaming services.

But wait, what about the established giants? They're awakening to the software revolution too. From Mercedes-Benz to Volkswagen, from Ford to Toyota, the race for vehicle operating system dominance is on. Think "MB. OS", "VW. OS" to Android for cars among others– the battle is real, with each vying for control of the data and touchpoints within your car. Many incumbent OEMs have established Chief Software Officer (CSO) roles to spearhead the transition from analog to digital. Reflecting on the world of personal computing and smartphones, no one wants to be left behind like commoditized personal computer hardware makers, such as HP and Lenovo with single-digit profit margins.

However, history teaches us that the ultimate winner isn't just the Operating System (OS) itself, but the ecosystem the OS orchestrator fosters. Reflecting on the smartphone analogy, multiple brands once competed for market share, with Symbian and Blackberry OS initially appearing well set. However, the market dynamic shifted dramatically when emerging mobile operating systems iOS and Android coupled with a new digital abstraction unleashed the creative potential of developers worldwide with app stores, enabling them to build applications for various use cases. The rest, as they say, is history. Just like smartphones, it's the app developers and the network effects they create that truly unlock value. So, while the infotainment systems of today might leave much to be desired, remember, we're still navigating the bumpy road from physical and digital buttons to software-defined bliss. The dreamt about vehicle app store with multitude of use cases addressing customer needs is still being built. Lack of interoperability and competing digital platforms is only making this transformation harder. That being said, guess what Blackberry is up to with QNX these days? Hint: it is driving the SdV!

Overall automotive software market is doubling to $660B by 2030 driven by increased spending among all players. However, consider the infotainment system in a typical car today, and you'll realize the extent of the journey ahead, especially for incumbents. Interestingly, the joke in the auto industry is that you can discern a company's basic organizational structure by examining its vehicle user interface. Therefore, the journey from spa?ltma? to software will undoubtedly be tumultuous, however it will be reshaping the automotive landscape as we know it.

Therefore, the journey from spa?ltma? to software will undoubtedly be tumultuous, however it will be reshaping the automotive landscape as we know it.

From gears to gigabytes

The roar of combustion engines might soon be replaced by a muffled buzz of electric vehicles and the hum of servers. Cars are shifting from the world of pistons and heat transfer to the realm of software and connectivity. But a crucial question emerges: can any single company conquer this software-defined future alone? The answer, resoundingly, is no. Just like humans, companies have strengths and weaknesses. The complex SdV stack holds numerous non-differentiating parts, ripe for collaboration across the mobility ecosystem. Recognizing this, Bosch and other players have launched Eclispse SdV, an open, collaborative technology alliance to unlock the SdV's full potential.

Think of the IoT. Its success hinges on standardized protocols and communication for seamless interoperability. Similarly, defining common standards for the SdV stack will ensure seamless, best-in-class experiences for all. The "winner-takes-all" model from mobile might not translate here. Instead, a new playbook of "coopetition" is emerging, where collaboration fuels innovation.

The "winner-takes-all" model from mobile might not translate here. Instead, a new playbook of "coopetition" is emerging, where collaboration fuels innovation.

But this transformation isn't just about technology. It's about people. A look at traditional carmakers' leadership exposes the need for change. Established approaches and structures won't take us to the future. We need new perspectives, new talent, and a willingness to adapt. Fortunately, disruption breeds progress. New players are forcing incumbents to evolve, embrace agility, and mature. It's not too late, but the window is narrowing for incumbent OEMs.

For customers, this future holds immense promise. The pursuit of truly intelligent vehicles has just begun, and collaborative efforts will unlock their full potential, perhaps even the elusive “home” button functionality in an autonomous SdV of the future. But one thing's certain: the software revolution is gripping our rides, and the ultimate destination is a future where our cars are no longer just machines, but intelligent companions seamlessly woven into the fabric of our connected lives. Imagine cars that integrate with your smart home, anticipate your needs, and constantly improve through software updates. This shift isn't just about "smart cars," it's about transforming mobility. Imagine same cars seamlessly interacting with smart cities, optimizing traffic flow, and enhancing safety. It's about integrating our vehicles with our digital lives, making them extensions of our homes and workplaces. The best times for mobility are truly ahead, but only if we collaborate, innovate, and rethink the road ahead.

This shift isn't just about "smart cars," it's about transforming mobility.

And the road ahead might lead beyond traditional players and mature markets. Emerging nations like India offer a ripe playing field for SdVs. With its massive, connected population, affordable data rates, and widespread 4G/5G connectivity, India boasts a tech-savvy test bed waiting to happen. The digital public infrastructure facilitating flow of people, money, and information further adds to the allure. This presents a unique opportunity for global and Indian OEMs to collaborate and prototype new SdV business models, leveraging India's unique strengths.

This collaborative spirit, embracing new talent and exploring new test beds, will be the key to unlocking the true potential of emerging SdV business models and winning. The future of mobility beckons, and it's a future built on collaboration, innovation, and the willingness to embrace a new era. Are you ready to join the ride?