A Transformative January?

Surely there have been few years as eagerly anticipated as 2021?

Even those of us old enough to remember the excitement of ringing in the 21st century, (with the accompanying nervousness about "the millennium bug") can admit that the promise of a vaccine and a Covid-free future was an intoxicating way to end the annus horribilis we have just endured.

There was another element of optimism, too, for those of us engaged with sustainability and climate issues, for two reasons.

First, the changing of the guard in Washington DC brought with it the promise of significant action from the US on the environmental front; second was a definitive sense of a change in the global mood.

Somehow during 2020, as the full impact of the pandemic unfolded, the COVID awareness seemed to dovetail with an environmental awakening, as people began to notice the cleaner air and read about the connection between their health and their environment

So perhaps no surprise that, despite COVID-19, many people were viewing their surroundings and their wellbeing in a new light.

Policy action?

As the UN Secretary-General António Guterres pointed out, the return of the US to the Paris Agreement had major significance:

"Following last year’s Climate Ambition Summit, countries producing half of global carbon pollution had committed to carbon neutrality. Today’s commitment by President Biden brings that figure to two-thirds."

Biden’s "Executive Order on Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis" represents a huge move away from the previous administration’s stance, specifically addressing some 200 changes  that had been made to environmental policy.

Among the more notable elements of the new approach were: a pledge to invest $2 trillion in clean-energy infrastructure to eliminate carbon emissions from electrical power within 15 years; and the creation of the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases.

This group has been told to publish, within thirty days, an interim assessment of the social cost of carbon (SCC), of methane (SCM) and of nitrous oxide (SCN), prices "which agencies shall use when monetizing the value of changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from regulations and other relevant agency actions."

Final values are to be published no later than January 2022. As the Washington Post points out, the Obama administration's formula for the SCC would have put the price today at $52 per ton, but Trump officials had reduced it to between $1 and $7 per ton. Under present conditions, the Post speculates that a target of $125 is possible.

Whether this translates into meaningful carbon pricing is a debate for another day; for now the point is to highlight a new policy approach in play.

Not a moment too soon.

As I mentioned, part of the elevated interested in the environment last year was driven by a series of stories detailing how nature was beginning to encroach on urban environments, and observations of how much cleaner the air seemed.

The anecdotal observations were supported by solid data. In the US, carbon emission levels fell to levels not seen since 1990.

But that’s where the good news ends.

According to the Rhodium Group’s latest environmental report, that still means the US is still not on target to meet climate goals and, worse, the second half of 2020 saw emissions back on an upward trajectory. It’s not unreasonable to conclude that the trend is echoed across the world.

There’s a lot of valuable data and analysis in this report, here. A good summary of the US-specific data is here.

A few other stories that brightened up January's environment outlook.

Cars!

Thanks to rapidly evolving battery technology, we may be near the “tipping point” where sales of electric cars exceed those of combustion engine vehicles. That point has already been reached in Norway, where market share of battery-powered cars soared to 54% in 2020.

Planes!

Boeing says it will produce a plane capable of running on 100% biofuels by 2030. The company has been testing mixed fuel technologies for almost a decade. Existing regulations only allow the use of biofuels in commercial aviation in a maximum 50/50 blend with conventional jetfuel.

Musk!

Elon Musk is a love-him-or-hate-him kinda guy, but he’s certainly got that Richard Branson flair for staying in the headlines. His latest splash announcement confirms he hasn't lost the power to provoke:

Whatever your feelings about the man, his interjection on this issue is timely. As you all know, there’s considerable debate over the value of pursuing carbon capture technology, and questions over whether giving such a huge prize will actually result in anything tangible. Some of his more acerbic critics believe he should just spend the money on planting trees instead.

I believe the carbon conversation is a critical one. So, with the commitment towards “net zero” goals rising across the world, @Tech For Impact Asia in association with @Carbonless-Asia is going to be addressing the question of Asia’s own carbon challenge.

In the coming weeks we’ll be holding a series of panel conversations to consider the issue from the perspective of companies, policymakers and investors. The series will culminate in the first Carbonless Asia Forum, to be held at the end of March.

Watch this space for more  details coming soon!