Transformative Energy Outlook for Dubai: A Comparative Analysis with California

Navigating the Energy Transition Through Geographical Advantages, Innovative Solutions, and Sustainable Strategies

Preface

The mission for a sustainable energy future and the pursuit of net-zero emissions stand as paramount challenges of our era and will continue over the decades ahead. Across the globe, nations and energy leaders are rallying to meet these challenges head-on. Even in the Middle East, where oil economies thrive on affordability, there is a growing momentum to contribute to global solutions. The Dubai Energy Strategy, with its ambitious goal of achieving 50% clean energy by 2040 and 75% by 2050, is a shining example of regional leadership.

This begs the question: What does the UAE's energy future look like? Can the country navigate an energy transition while enjoying low-cost energy attractiveness? What strategies can be employed to drive this change?

This insight provides answers to these questions, offering a clear view of the UAE's energy landscape. We highlight Dubai as a model city, drawing parallels with California's energy profile. Both regions boast comparable geographical advantages for renewable energy and share a commitment to sustainability, with California leading the way in energy transition, achieving 48% of clean energy to date. Through this comparative analysis, we aim to inspire and inform about the potential for a transformative energy future in the UAE and the Middle East.

To Start, Why Compare Dubai With California?

Dubai and California have similar profiles of potential solar energy! For Dubai, the average annual irradiance is quite high in the range of 2,200 to 2,600 kWh/m2/year, making it one of the sunniest places on Earth, which is ideal for solar energy production. California, on average, California's annual irradiance might be in the range of 1,800 to 2,400 kWh/m2/year. They both lay on the solar energy belt.

Today, in 2024, California is being considered one of the pioneers in setting sustainable energy targets. The city has already reached 49% of its clean energy portfolio. This percentage sets the target net-zero energy profile for Dubai in 2050. Dubai can draw inspiration from the successful roadmap implemented by California.

Current Energy Landscape in Dubai

Dubai is actively working to meet its sustainable energy targets through a comprehensive approach that includes ambitious goals, significant investments in renewable energy, and innovative projects

Total Energy Consumption: The UAE has seen a significant increase in energy consumption over the years, driven by rapid economic growth and urbanization. In 2021, the primary energy consumption was approximately 1,200 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, with Dubai being a major contributor.

Per Capita Energy Consumption: The UAE's per capita energy consumption is among the highest in the world, with figures exceeding 10,000 kWh per person annually, largely due to high demand for air conditioning and desalination processes

Fossil Fuels: The UAE relies heavily on fossil fuels, with natural gas and oil making up over 90% of its energy mix. In 2021, natural gas accounted for about 80% of the total energy consumption, while oil contributed significantly to the transportation and industrial sectors.

Renewable Energy: As of 2021, renewables contributed approximately 5% of the energy mix, primarily from solar power projects.

Current Energy Profile of California

Total Energy Consumption: California is the second-largest energy consumer in the U.S., with a total energy consumption of around 7,000 TWh in 2023. Despite its large consumption, California's per capita energy consumption is relatively low compared to other states, at about 6,000 kWh per person annually.

Per Capita Energy Consumption: California's per capita energy consumption is the fourth-lowest in the nation, reflecting energy efficiency measures and a focus on reducing overall demand.

Fossil Fuels: In 2023, natural gas accounted for about 39% of California's electricity generation, while crude oil remains a significant resource for transportation.

Renewable Energy: California leads the U.S. in renewable energy production, with renewables (including hydroelectric, solar, and wind) supplying 49% of in-state electricity generation in 2023. The state has made substantial investments in solar energy, which has become a major component of its energy strategy.

Energy and Sustainability Targets

Both Dubai and California are making significant progress in achieving their sustainability energy targets, demonstrating a strong commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources. Here’s a summary of their key sustainable energy targets:

Dubai's Sustainable Energy Targets:

• Clean Energy Strategy 2050: Dubai aims for 75% of its total energy capacity to come from clean sources by 2050, with interim goals of 25% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.
• Carbon Neutrality: The Emirate has set a goal for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, aligning with its vision for sustainable development.
• Investment in Renewable Energy: Significant investments are being made in renewable projects, particularly solar energy. The Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, the largest single-site solar park globally, aims for a capacity of 5,000 MW by 2030.
• Technological Innovation: The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) is utilizing advanced technologies, such as IoT and AI, to improve energy efficiency and integrate renewable sources.

California's Sustainable Energy Targets:

• 100% Carbon-Free Electricity by 2045: California has set a target to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045, with interim goals of 90% by 2035 and 95% by 2040.
• Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction: The state aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2030, necessitating significant cuts across various sectors.
• Renewable Energy Expansion: California plans to significantly increase its renewable energy generation capacity, requiring the installation of 5 gigawatts of utility-scale solar annually over the next two decades.
• Electric Vehicle Targets: The state aims for 5 million zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) on the road by 2030, promoting electric vehicle adoption.
• Legislative Support: California has enacted several laws to support its sustainability targets, including mandates for emissions reporting and incentives for renewable energy investments.

Comparative Analysis: The Synergies

Ambition Level: Both regions have set ambitious renewable energy and carbon neutrality targets, but California's goals are more aggressive regarding immediate emissions reductions and renewable energy percentages.

Technological Innovation: Dubai and California leverage technology to enhance energy efficiency and integrate renewable resources, with Dubai focusing on a diverse energy mix and California emphasizing solar and wind energy.

Investment and Infrastructure: Dubai's large-scale solar projects are critical to its strategy, while California's extensive legislative framework supports a broader range of sustainability initiatives.

The Way Forward for Dubai: A High-Level Outlook)

There are different models Dubai can follow to achieve its energy ambition in comparison to California. A multifaceted strategy that includes not only expanding renewable energy capacity, but also promoting electric vehicles, enforcing/implementing supportive legislation, and investing more in infrastructure; can seem to have valuable effects in achieving this goal.

Legislative Support: Recent legislation in California has made a major contribution to their net zero journey, including State Senate Bills 253 and 261, which mandate emissions reporting for over 15,000 businesses, enhancing transparency and accountability in emissions management.

Infrastructure Investments: Governor Gavin Newsom has committed $180 billion in funding to improve electrical grid capacity, which is essential for integrating renewable energy sources and ensuring a reliable energy supply.

Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs): California is on track to have 5 million ZEVs on the road by 2030, with significant increases in electric vehicle sales. This is a crucial component of the state's strategy to reduce emissions from the transportation sector, which accounts for nearly 40% of the state's emissions.