Transcending the Crisis by Future-Proofing Ourselves

When I was invited to participate in the Transcending the Crisis videoconference on June 19, 2020 (#transcendingcrisis), I was inspired to write down some of my thoughts beforehand. This videoconference posits that “to survive and thrive as a global community, we must be technology-enabled, business-focused, human-powered, and society-embracing.” Themes discussed throughout this videoconference include: uncertainty, risk, complexity, resilience, antifragility (Taleb), future-proofing and future-readying, black swans (Taleb), gray rhinos (Wuker), ecosystems, and much more (change, disruption, innovation, agile, lean, transformation, etc.). These preliminary thoughts follow in a 4 part series, for your consideration.

Part 1: Engineered Resilience vs. Environmental Resilience

In environmental engineering, the concepts of Engineered Resilience and Environmental Resilience have long been in competition for which is the right/best approach to perpetuating an ecosystem. In my research on future-proofing historic buildings and development of the Principles of Future-Proofing, I have come to believe that both engineered resilience and environmental resilience are necessary. And both are equally applicable to us in our daily lives. It may sound cliché to say that one must have a strong base of character to allow us to flex as the need arises, but that’s exactly the dichotomy between engineered resilience and environmental resilience.

Where engineered resilience is about people taking charge of their lives and building themselves up to be strong in the face of adversity, environmental resilience is about how we respond to our environment, like a reed in a stream, bending without breaking. But even a reed has its roots anchored in firm soil. Our strength is what gets us through the worst of a crisis. And engineered resilience is what gives us the strength to find a new equilibrium – and vice versa. The ability to flex allows us to learn new ideas, methods, and ways of being that build a stronger, wider base. Engineered resilience gives us the strength to find a new equilibrium and environmental resilience gives us the flexibility to build a stronger foundation. Engineered resilience gives us the strength to not give up in a crisis…  To continue to find a way toward growth and success… To find a new state of equilibrium….

This new state of equilibrium is not the same for everyone. There are large scale components that are relatively consistent for many people such as new laws implemented that impact large groups of people. There are also medium-sized and smaller scales to consider such as a group meeting via videoconferencing or an individual deciding to work remotely due to ongoing concerns for their health. In addition, some components are stable and unchanging. Our own equilibrium is formed by a combination of all of these factors. Our engineered resilience is a source of strength as we find ourselves and our circumstances changing, seeking a new state of environmental resilience.

Perhaps this is a “better normal,” as David Cushman calls it. My experience working from home over the last 2 ? years as I have started my own business has been that we should consider carefully what is “better” for ourselves. For some, a remote work schedule on hours that they choose works well. For myself, I find that I now work at all hours with often little discipline, and no regular hours. Work has taken over my life, but thankfully for me, that’s OK because I love what I’m doing. It is not so OK for the rest of the world around me that is trying to maintain a regular schedule, nor for my family!

Environmental resilience (the ability to flex and accommodate change without being broken by it) – is something we definitely need. I think we should also consider what it is that provides our engineered resilience - our strength. Is this a regular schedule? A physical location or routine? Is it our family? These types of things anchor us (as in "hold us down"), but also support us. For me, historic buildings are an important source of my physical, mental, and emotional well-being.  I find that I need this support and structure to keep me flexible and that my "better normal" still has many elements of my old "normal."

Ultimately, we need both engineered and environmental resilience. The combination of engineered and environmental resilience leads us out of desperation to a place of hope, as we can rely on them both to give us the resilience needed to overcome the crises we face today.

Part 2: Adaptive Cycles

With credit to CS Holling, Lance Gunderson, and their fellow researchers, we live in a continuing series of adaptive cycles at multiple different scales. We exploit and build upon our advantages, consolidating our positions and then there is often a period of collapse or reorganization. As we use our engineered resilience to maintain stability, we take in more information or resources that we use to help build our advantages. Recently, we have been in just such a phase of consolidation - an extraordinary period of growth and development and stability (regardless of whether each of agrees with the direction of growth!). With adaptive cycles, we build upon our advantages and consolidate our positions.  

We are in a phase of creative release and reorganization. The current phase of the adaptive cycle is called “release” where the ties that bind decay and we choose to set aside some parts of ourselves and incorporate new ideas and resources. We recreate and “re-organize” ourselves to be stronger and wiser – perhaps only incrementally, but improvements, nonetheless. 

To see ourselves in the context of this adaptive cycle is reassuring! Knowing and understanding that we are changing and developing is a natural part of our growth. And we continue to grow throughout our lives. The human condition, I believe, is one where we are continually future-proofing ourselves by preparing for the challenges that lie ahead so that we can survive and thrive. And this understanding and preparation is part of surviving and transcending the crisis. As we understand adaptive cycles and where we are in them, we can rise up, orient ourselves, and move towards certainty.

Part 3: Future-Proofing Ourselves

Knowing that we have strong engineered resilience balanced with the flexibility of environmental resilience and understanding that we are in a series of adaptive cycles gives us a base to work from. But how do we know what to do next? Does future-proofing have anything to say about this crisis and how we can respond to and rise above it? Yes! How does future-proofing compare to future-readying?

Future-readying is about “future trends and influences and talking with experts to understand emerging technologies (Marcellus Turner, Executive Director and Chief Librarian, The Seattle Public Library, 2020).” It is also about how to be more “anticipatory – aware, predictive, and adaptive of trends (MACPA Spring Town Hall 2018).” Future-readying is about being ready for things that we already know are coming. Future-proofing is about anticipating unknown influences, events, etc., and preparing ourselves for things such as earthquakes, Coronavirus pandemics, and things that cannot be predicted. Future-readying is like emergency preparedness for an earthquake where we can predict and understand the impacts and how to be ready for them. Future-proofing is not knowing what an earthquake is or when it is coming, but preparing for the unknown hazards as best we can. Is being future-proof or future-ready better to help us transcend a crisis? Future-readying is very necessary for managing known changes and crises. Future-proofing is more powerful because it can be applied to multiple different types of crises. Future-proofing provides a framework that accommodates both known and unknown events. 

Future-proofing asks us to use and rely upon the expert guidance that is available to us. We can future-proof ourselves by listening to and following the experts in each of their own fields. Whether it be medical, investment, or businesses that thrive in such circumstances. You’ll find characteristics of future-proofing within each of them as they have learned to adapt to their particular world.

Future-proofing promotes preventing decay. In this instance, I believe we struggle to prevent mental decay and malaise. Even though we were cooped up with “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” orders and forced to be apart from friends, I challenged my son to figure out how he could better be prepared for the “re-opening” of our communities. How could he be better off after taking a multi-month-long vacation from his senior year in high school? How can he be a better person? Acting on these questions prevents the mental and moral decay, and even malaise, that we seem to be prone to when we are less active and have less demands. 

Work to endure and adapt to the situation. We work to be durable and endure through the immediate crisis through our own engineered resilience. Then we work to be flexible and adapt to the new realities of our situation. We learn new habits and ways of interacting with each other with environmental resilience.

We can future-proof by fortifying ourselves and ensuring our future. We will likely have to deal with many more world-wide health crises as our population grows denser and viruses grow stronger. And we will have to continue to work to stamp out bias in all its forms. We are driven to fortify ourselves and make our species unstoppable through the redundancy. And we can strive to live with a mindset of life-long learning to reduce our obsolescence in this ever-changing world.

Most important, future-proofing promotes understanding and acceptance. Here, we come to the challenge of developing understanding and acceptance and compassion for those around us who are suffering during this crisis. I have been more fortunate – and worked hard – to maintain a stable position in my personal and business life through this crisis. So, perhaps, it is harder for me to understand what it is like for families devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, what I can do is strive to be a bit kinder and to listen to the misfortune of those whose lives have been forever altered.

Part 4: Forcing Us to Become Better

It sounds horrible (and feels atrocious even as I think about it!) and I have the deepest sense of sorrow for those who have fallen ill and died due to COVID-19, but this crisis is forcing us to become better people. It is forcing us to recognize how we impact other people around us and wrestle with what it means to be a global society. It forces us to wrestle with balancing our traditional culture and heritage with the progress of our ever-changing world. And how to respect our foundational beliefs while accommodating, and even welcoming, change.

If future-proofing is about anticipating future events and developing methods to reduce the negative impacts, we have failed in many ways – though not completely. Sadly, many have passed away as a result of this pandemic, but it is also forcing us to learn how to manage future public health crises so that we are better prepared. A significant part of our success is in learning how to learn and quickly implement effective solutions – how to be ready for the next time. We have much to cheer for as we work our way through this crisis.

This crisis is forcing us to become better people to ourselves and each other. As we see and understand the broad impacts of this crisis, we also see how much we must learn about what it is to be a society of equality and how far we are from it. We see how greed and avarice hurt those around us. It can be ugly and violent and stressful. And we respond to those sights with outrage and wisdom, both subtle and blatant. Regardless of the form of our response, this is us, becoming a better people.

We transcend the crisis through many things, including engineered resilience, environmental resilience, understanding adaptive cycles, and becoming better people. But perhaps most important, we transcend the crisis by future-proofing ourselves.

Brian D. Rich, AIA, APT RP, LEED BD+C, CCCA, PMP, sUAS

Creator of the Principles of Future-Proofing (www.principlesoffutureproofing.com)